Member Info for Smartinvestment

Thanks AJP.

This is a good example of where a RNS could be released to explain the potential applications of this new IP.

Hopefully the new comms guy at Itaconix reads this bulletin board

Hi AJP

Yes I saw that John Shaw was going with Jim Gordon his Global Director for cleaning & hygiene and John Fernald their technical product manager which is very senior representation.

I’m feeling very bullish about our prospects and am hoping to sell some other shares to buy more Itaconix whilst it’s at its bottom. I expect a break out in share price in the coming weeks and think it won’t take much to get this moving Northwards. My near term expectation is that we will get back to 200p which is a 33% gain from here. 200p is still only 4p in old money so I think I’m being quite conservative. Beyond the next trading update in January I have much higher expectations.

Let’s hope we land some more big customers from the congress. Would be good to see a November RNS announcing this.

H AJP yes unfortunately the current share price does leave the company vulnerable to a hostile takeover bid. I wonder how many private investors would turn down 500p (10p in old money)?

The current market cap of just under 20m is bonkers given there is 10m cash and the company is effectively break even (cash positive in 3 months out of the first 9 months). It’s not just the incredibly valuable IP and parents it’s also the £8m and growing revenue.

I’m continuing to top up at these ridiculous prices because I’m expecting something significant to come out of the current share price.

Thanks Chilting. That’s a significant 20% downgrade in Crodas annual revenue. Which makes Itaconix’s continued achievement of its aggressive revenue targets all the more impressive.

I do believe we have hit the bottom now in share price and this is a great entry point for new investors or existing investors wishing to average down.

Thanks Rivaldo this is great news.

I also thought the following exert from Amati’s report was very relevant:

“This now requires a period of adjustment, as market prices respond to what has been a very abrupt end to the era of cheap money amidst the advent of war, potential shortages of natural resources and a rising wave of sanctions on international trade. None of this lessens the need for innovative new businesses to underpin the future growth of the economy and maintain competitiveness. However, it makes it harder for such businesses to find funding and tends to slow down sales cycles, making it more expensive for them to scale up. This makes the role of VCTs more important than ever, being pools of capital which are able to continue to invest in tougher times and support businesses over the longer term. The need for clarity on the future of VCT schemes is becoming ever more critical. Tougher markets also tend to be good for the long run returns from new investments, so it is to be hoped that the ability to continue investing will stand the Company in good stead in the years to come. It is encouraging that new opportunities for qualifying investments are appearing on AIM, albeit in smaller numbers than previously.”

The fact that itaconic ticks all the right boxes for Amati to invest in them speaks volume and we need to give Itaconix more credit for having successfully weathered these much tighter credit conditions.

If you think about the shares which the Itaconix execs hold, it really brings it home to you how much it is in their personal interest to get the share price moving up again. Whilst we own thousands of shares, they own tens of thousands of shares:

John R. Shaw - 940,411 Shares

Laura Denner - 255,724 Shares

Dr. Yvon Durant - 110,489 Shares

Feels like we’ve hit the bottom so I did another top up this morning whilst under 150p. The potential upside from here far outweighs the risk of any further significant downside in my opinion and I don’t want to miss out on these prices. GLA.

Wow that’s 2.88p in old money. I had to put that in my calculator twice to check. Surely a bounce is coming…

I agree AJP

My frustration isn’t with the company’s performance I think they are right in track and I was happy with everything I heard at the last investor event.

My frustration is with the ridiculous drop in share price on virtually no volume. I know the free float is really small but it’s not that small!

I hope you are right that someone is about to scoop up a load of cheap shares as we are into bargain territory.

How have we sunk to 140p on virtually no volume traded????????

How can £2,250 shares sold so far today result in a 1% share price drop when the market cap is 24m ???

Something doesn’t add up

No sells in Aquis.

I’ve just added 664 shares at 150p to my already substantial holding.

At a 22m market cap with 10m in the bank this is too good an opportunity to turn down.

I know it’s risky trying to catch a falling share price but there comes a point where every value play turns round and I firmly believe this will be soon.

The company is doing all the right things and it’s growth profile is improving every half and most importantly it is delivering on its plan.

Yes surprised though at how quickly it went down to 150p. 3p in old money is crazy.

Makes me wonder if the consolidation has led to some of the US investors selling their shares as they couldn’t before?

At 157.5p chilting I think we will get to 150p. It’s 4 months until the next scheduled RNS which is a long time to potentially drift “IF” there is no news.

Of course as a LTH I don’t believe the company itself is drifting. They are making incredible progress delivering what they said they would. But not everyone shares my enthusiasm and patience is wearing thin so even a few LTHs may sell in the short term.

There is a growing divergence between the progress the company is making and the share price. I believe at some point that divergence will correct itself and we will see a big bounce up in share price.

So if we do get to 150p I will add more shares.

It’s a shame you can’t see the Bid and Ask totals like you can on crypto exchanges.

My analysis is that in the potential absence of any RNSs between now and the January H2 update that anyone who isn’t content to stay long and hold will move their money elsewhere. Hence why I see a drift down to 150p in the short term.

I have to declare some self interest in that potential scenario as it would encourage me to add even more shares because I genuinely believe Itaconix is massively undervalued for both its IP and expected revenue growth.

Not to be pedantic but the company has been cash positive for 3 months of this year not 2 months. They said they are basically break even now save for what they choose to reinvest. eg in new equipment.

Another point of accuracy. There will be a H2 trading update RNS in January. I suspect things will look a lot rosier then.

Another contributing factor to the current share price is that we have hit the bearish golden cross, when the 50 day moving average crosses over the 200 average from above. Investors / traders do not want to take entry when they have this cross, and will want to wait for a retrace before taking entry. In other words evidence that we are exiting the bottom.

Clearly we are still bottoming out and I think we are at or very close to the bottom. If there is no significant news until January my gut feeling is that we will get close to 150p and then start to retrace upwards.

I think that’s a fair analogy.

For me, apart from the planned growth in revenue I think it’s the development and growth of the higher margin products which will help drive the share price. Superabsorbents are still the product which I think have the potential to absolutely explode Itaconix revenues and we know that is in the pipeline. The recent breakthrough with the solid (powder) alternative to the liquid is extremely significant.

I will add more Itaconix I’m just not sure whether to pull the buy trigger now or wait to see if there is any more drift towards 150p. 2024 feels like the year share price will take off on the back of the January update and other tailwinds.

Locking my shares safely away and looking forward to H2 report in 4 months time.

So much negative sentiment on this board because of the share price but I don’t agree with the criticism of the company. They are delivering the significant revenue growth and gross margin improvements they predicted. They are basically at break even minus what they choose to reinvest in the company.

Consolidation will help as US folk can now hold itx in their broker accounts.

Good luck to all true Longs and see you in 4 months.