The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
Https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/usg7052taf87-petrofac-ltd-9-75-21-26
My reasons were valid at the time
SFO finished
Diluting at 115p successfully accomplished
Tennet deal signed €6B
Algeria $1.5B
Reinstated in the UAE followed by $600m and $700m contract wins there.
Sponsorship for UAE nationals graduate scheme in Sharjah university.
Decommissioning work growth in Australia.
Why wouldn’t I think this business is recovering?
Lots of us expected the shorts to reduce approaching tomorrow, they e done the opposite. To clear out now with over 50 million declared borrowed shares would be an extremely difficult task. That’s without those shorts holding below 0.5%.
Looking at Friday’s short action, Astaris appear to have traded but with 0% change in holding. Is it possible that Astaris reduced on Friday morning causing the rise we all saw only to increase again in the afternoon and pull the SP back down again?
If they have that power alone then surely that’s market manipulation?
If we close flat today it’ll say a lot with regards to what the shorts are planning.
Still the II’s are holding firm and for that reason, so am I.
Banks have lost their appetite for the Oil and gas industry but not alternative fuels and that’s where this business is heading.
No more speculation from me. To late in the saga,
Genuinely good luck to all that are long here.
Helikon are throwing the kitchen sink at this which is surprising seeing as they’ve only been declared over 0.5% since November 6th. Nice earner for them from 48p but they’ve been increasing through much lower levels and at 2.85% if this turns, they stand to loose heavily!
Snappy
Some of what you say makes sense however you do seem to be seeking the demise of the business.
The problem,as played out by yourself is:
PFC have won too many contracts and are struggling with the initial financing to commence work.
As stated by PFC management, this is a short term liquidity issue that they are addressing via various means and are actively bringing professionals onboard to assist in making the right decisions.
Legacy contracts and late collections have caused this.
5 of the 8 legacy contracts are expected to be completed late 2023 or early 2024. So we can assume the later. Hence the temporary cash flow situation, emphasis on temporary.
Https://www.petrofac.com/media/news/petrofac-secures-brownfield-epc-framework-with-totalenergies/
Good find paddy
A sensibly worded report, we can only speculate on what the various options might be but seems increasingly likely that shareholders and bondholders aren’t the scapegoats.
The hedge funds shorting PFC also have a responsibility to their investors. We may not be looking at the bottom? But more importantly we certainly aren’t looking at the top share price.
My gut is saying the trading update is likely to be exactly what it says on the tin with little or no resolution to the current issue.
We shall see, only 2 trading days left.
GLA
Https://www.forbes.com/uk/advisor/investing/2023/12/06/most-bought-and-sold-shares/
PFC are in the top 10 most bought
According to PFC website
Asfari, Azvalor, Schroders and Hambro are holding 239,143,241 shares out of 552m
My thinking is
After the update, if the business has a decent future then directors will have the opportunity to buy.
The pressure on shorts will be tremendous if they’re still holding.
Shorts increasing is keeping the pressure on and holding the price down as we’ve seen more recently.
We’ve also seen a 30% rise when Astaris reduced.
It’s possible the shorts reduce to force an increase to encourage PI’s to jump in then increase again,force the SP down and frighten PI’s into selling a loss.
Find it difficult to believe that derampers spend all day posting negatively because they are disgruntled employees or PI’s who have lost money. Most likely they are payed derampers trying to scare PI’s into selling a loss.
It’s becoming more and more transparent as the days progress.
Just hope my opinion and many others who post on here are correct and the business is turning a corner and heading for better things.
The order book is immense, the business is transitioning into alternative energy and given the funding should evolve admirably.
GLALTH
Janbo
It would appear they are playing a risky game or are privy to inside information.
The later is illegal however.
If they’re still with us on Tuesday night then I’ll be much more concerned.
I am too deep to bail out now. As are our institutional investors who are still holding which gives some comfort.
Everything I’ve read about shorts is they are usually right, however they got caught in March so not always!
Noise from the company is of a bright future so that’s all we have to go on.
Fitch are clearly clueless as were JP Morgan when they put a 75p target on RR.
We know there are issues with cash flow and the business has claimed it can resolve these issues via various means which at the very least suggests there will be a future.
I really hope so as it’s also common for management to blag it until the point of failure.
Onwards
I do understand pal.
I’m down considerably and thought that collective organized buying would show solidarity and perhaps if enough people subscribed, some movement.
So, the phrase poor show simply refers to the 1000 shares buys on the hour.