Member Info for Slim_Shady

Thanks nice to get some technical analysis beyond £5. Made a run above £5 today be interesting to see what happens when US markets open after inflation figures.

I would feel uncomfortable if I was in other iron ore producers that shot up purely on this last month rally but Ferrexpo had fundamentals way before this.

I am a LTH as well as I have also lost more previously on investments leaving money on the table. If you believe in a company then see the ride through until the right valuation and exit opp presents itself.

Also if you were able to make money last year after the crash then fair enough to take profits and hold cash but for ppl coming into this later there is opportunity.

Custeel price in and now $263 ($20 gain) for 65% Fe and hopefully the momentum Fxpo needs to decisively break £5.

This is running very fast now and lengthens timeline for future retracement.

I saw the same thing happen on Fri with Easyjet when it showed price of 1040 about 20 mins after closing at 1090.
Opened today at 1076 so not reading much into it in RR’s case today.

Do expect some pullback as RR day traders can’t wait to take profits back.

I am hoping RR take a leaf out of Tui and Easyjet investor relations book and be more bullish on the future so should include cash reserves are strong, no issues on debt repayment and ITP cash expecting to shore this up. Plus play up future innovation etc

It will take time for recovery and need to remember RR is not just UK centric so hoping once US lets planes start flying round the world this will run a bit.

If people are after quick money go to Tui, Easyjet, SSP etc where share volumes and market caps are lower so will run quicker. I am in RR for longer term recovery over next few yrs and there are far better options out there for day traders!

Another great run on Fxpo today hopefully can break £5 quicker than £4.50. Hoping this momentum can keep for next 2 months to get another couple of special divis factored in.

Fortescue up 7% and now trading at P/E of 9.3 on lower quality iron ore so Ferrexpo at P/E 6.4 still has plenty to run potentially.

Vale running fast now as well as has high quality iron ore and nickel so one to watch!

Imho Ferrexpo should have got to £5 even if the iron ore price had stayed around $190-200 for 65% Fe. So many positives with higher quality iron ore vs others, fundamentally undervalued EPS, increased production coming in H2 due to pelletiser upgrades, great cash and debt positions. Also can’t see Russia issue rearing its head again for the moment leaving just the probe on the owner which he has plenty of cash now to settle up if he chooses.

Appreciate lot of ppl got in last year and made heavy profits already but this has shot up £1.20 since ppl starting playing up the risk on Ferrexpo. I got in a bit later than most at 3.30 but made a good profit looking at fundamentals which are far stronger than other companies driven purely by iron price which is out of control atm. If this iron ore price held on Ferrexpo should be at £7-8+ but naturally a lot of risk due to commodity cycle, markets in general that have been well documented.

Lot of good insights on this forum but for someone new late into the game here good to lay out fundamentals on Ferrexpo as this seems to have been lost in recent weeks.

Seaborne prices up after China public hols and showing $12 increase from 223 to 235 on 65% Fe so hopefully a big push up tomorrow and £5 soon.

Just need the owner to settle his probe and company would be ripe for a takeover as it is a cash machine.

Esp when said broker put a target of 1540 in mid-Feb knowing full well equity raise for mainly Institutional Investors would take place in mid-March valuing shares at 1060. I like Ceres long term potential but in short term at mercy of MMS and brokers!

Tricky to judge floor of Ceres as I had thought 1060 with where equity raise was set. Link to US is harder now that Plug is embroiled in accounting issues as up until March this was a good barometer for Ceres.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56842763.amp

Russians pulling back

It is a shame this board is relentlessly targeted by day traders as Rolls is not a short term play as it only makes money in aviation once huge numbers of planes fly so will take longest to recover in this sector. If you want quick money go in Tui or Easyjet instead which has much lower trading volumes so can run up quicker or AIM etc. Until there is clear positive sentiment on travel this will struggle to run but once it gets going it has the biggest recovery of them all as ppl will remember other half of the business is already profitable and growing!

With the short term volatility the short sellers will have fun taking ppl’s money through classic FUD tactics.

Agree market is being overly bearish on RR esp compared to other travel plays. IAG and Easyjet had 15-20% higher breakouts than RR since mid Feb despite the liquidity position for RR being a lot more solid with more to come from ITP Aero sale.

Also RR will see the money the last out of travel companies so natural for them to move up slower as well. In the meantime short term impatience is easy pickings for hedge funds who can take ppl’s money on calls / puts for those jumping in and out on the daily.

Will be interesting to see what price this recovers to as now post RI it would be 550 range to be at pre-pandemic levels.

As Europe is SSP’s biggest market c40% it is key the vaccinations and cases come down soon so it can start shooting up based on fundamentals.

If this can get to 450 would be great as this is one of the recovery stocks that still has the most upside.

Also any idea about big fall Fri afternoon apart from locking in profits ahead of more guidance next week?

Now $202 and what is great for Fxpo is extra premium on 65% Fe fines compared to lower % Fe so maybe more road to run . If record level iron ore prices and great Q1 production results doesn't push this over 400 tomorrow I will be surprised and it will be time to de-risk further until more clarity on Ukraine / Russia next moves. There is also potential for increased regular dividends in May to boost the SP but a month is a long time given the fluid geo-politics at play. Great company - unfortunate business location and ownership issues.

All miners are up today so don’t think the bounce is due to any additional confidence in Ukraine / Russia situation which is still uncertain.

Lets hope there is some reassurance from Fxpo investor relations in production update on Thurs that current situation isn’t impacting performance at the moment alongside fantastic results!

For RR to be 230+ effectively pre pandemic they should of recovered most of the cash position which at earnings was (£4bn) loss and some confidence around stability through potential dividends again.

Pre-pandemic RR was making c£800m profit a year and even with other cash improvement / raising initiatives it will take time to recover.

If we can get 160 by end of year will be happy as any larger recovery this year will based on sentiment rather than fundamentals.

Long term holder of Fxpo and like everyone concerned with recent Ukraine / Russia tensions. One thing that has been missed in all this is that even when Russia was at war in Crimea in 2014 it had no impact on Fxpo production and only iron ore price suppressed growth during this time. Can’t see Fxpo being under risk this time either as Russia are after the Donbas area which is still many hours away from Fxpo mines.

Not saying there isn’t reason to be concerned but I do think Putin is testing US / EU and winning favour with his supporters. Russia need support for Nord gas and potentially Sputnik monies so any huge sanctions by US / EU would severely impact economy.

Understand ppl pulling out for now to de-risk but good to have balanced views on both sides as easy to build worst case narrative once not a holder on FOMO on the eventual recovery

Long time holder / pre-pandemic sufferer of RR and I do think RR is a great bet for medium / long term.

Over half of its business last year was profitable (Defence / Power Systems) and they have cleared the cost base excesses during the pandemic. Of course the Aerospace business dictates the majority of profit but it does look like we are on the final stretch with vaccinations and block in spreading.

Additionally RR still has some 50% to go to pre-pandemic price while other fully aerospace exposed companies have 30-35% recovery left (e.g. Easyjet and Tui). Finally RR are one of the few companies that through Rights Issue have factored in a weaker case recovery scenario into future liquidity so can ride out some short term volatility.

I had reduced my holding in anticipation of End of Year results and to see how fast vaccinations could be rolled out versus infections. I now plan to add tomorrow as long term can only see this going up with fundamentals and other strings to bow added (e.g. Hydrogen initiatives)