RE: TLW24 Jul 2021 00:58
SharingGuy,
800mmboe would require nearfield exploration and developing nearfield prospects. This is currently not within development, nor proven. This part of the project would be Phase 3, which will be late life opportunities for the fields.
The 2019 development plan was looking at development over 21 years.
The first phase would be 60k bopd for 4 years before it starts declining.
The second phase will boost this to around 80k bopd for 7-8 years.
The rest of the production period will have natural decline - with production falling fast over the period.
The 2019 plan was for 560mmboe development - which at 2019 oil prices would return c. $4-5b ($2b return for Tullow)
It's a lot more complicated than your calculation below.
Tullow have license for production up to 2044 and if FID is made this year, that will be around 20 years of production, but it's more like 10-12 years of good production before natural decline takes place.
Even with natural decline, unless nearfield prospects are developed in phase 3, meaningful production will end by year 15.
"so $3b return across 27years = @$100m per year or 7p per share per year.
My maths must be wrong somewhere because these numbers are a non-starter!"
$2b across 20 years, averaging @ $100m/year, but in reality, it'll be 10-12 years of plateau production so majority of the $2b will be produced across these years so pushing to $200m/year for these years @ $55/barrel.
My expectation is that Tullow will reduce the life of meaningful production period by increasing plateau production early on and accelerating reserves.
But we'll find out soon!
Sign In
Follow the stocks
