Member Info for Slift

CNOOC is the obvious partner.

Several interesting points from the presentation:
- Espoir back online.
- 3rd well as part of Ghana drilling program is onstream.
- Tullow's Pre-emptive rights for Oxy/Kosmos transaction is approx. 3.5% Jubilee and 7.7% TEN additional stake. This would amount to approx. $125-150m consideration at a best guess (using Kosmos' purchase price). Most likely Tullow will take up these rights to be the major stakeholder in these fields - but at what cost if any to investors?
- Potential farm down of Kanuku block
- Gas agreement with Ghana expires end of 2022.
- No drill in Orinduik in 2022. Rahul mentions well obligations, from memory, Orinduik drill commitment is 2023.

Will be interesting to see farmdown of Kenya/Kanuku aswell as Tullow taking up pre-emptive rights in Ghana in the next 2 months of this year.

"The oil price is universal across industries and companies."

Not quite. Our production is hedged @ 75%.
Average oil price for sales for TLW will differ to other companies.

Come on man, think.

E&P debt to average daily production..

Such a weird metric to use - doesn't even consider oil price in this metric, which is a big miss, imo.
E&P to production currently at ~$47.5k.

No, fundamentals at HUR weak. I haven't touched HUR for a year.

The only oil and gas stock I have is Tullow.

Good luck with your holdings!

Jubileey,
What prediction did you make when you bought Tullow at 150p+?

Jeez, you have an obsession with me.

"Would it not depend on how long oil was at $100, and what TLWs hedges (ceiling prices) are at this time?"

The whole strategy behind Tullow's forward plan is production.
It all depends on how quickly and by how much Tullow increases production - as opposed to hedges.
Any increase in production (or excess production) will be sold at futures/spot price of oil, which provides Tullow will increased Revenue (and cashflow) not limited by hedges.

With powercuts and factory closures in China, the central government has ordered top energy firms to secure supplies at all costs for the winter.

This will undoubtedly have an impact on other countries securing supplies in an already very tight market controlled by OPEC - especially if it's a long and difficult winter across the western world.

What could go wrong?

RIP HUR 2022.

No, not quite the shortage in the UK, but rather the panic.

And since it happened in the UK, it really shows that there is a lot of people that depend on petrol and the importance of oil in our society, despite the green push.

As for supply and demand, isn't it obvious that there is more demand than supply with the consistent drop in stockpiles across the world for the past 6 months?
What's more is that OPEC can't just increase supply due to agreement between all OPEC members. Right now, some OPEC nations can't even increase their supply due to underinvestment (Nigeria, Angola, etc.) and i'm sure they aren't prepared to lose too much of their position to Russia or SA.
The oil and gas industry needs investment.

few months = in 6-18 months timeframe.

With the panic in shortage of petrol at stations, and diminishing stockpiles, get ready for significant investment in the oil and gas sector in the next few months.

Tullow cannot possibly be in any better position than now with assets like Guyana and Kenya - ready to receive those investments.

Not quite 50% to output plateau. The peak output of 120k bopd is only 20% from previous design.

However, what's more important is that due to the increase of resources by 30% (through Ekales and optimisation) and acceleration of production, means that the CAPEX cost per unit barrel has been reduced by $9/barrel. The new development has accelerated 85% more resources into the intial first/foundation phase - all for a slight increase in CAPEX of $2b development and $1.4b pipeline (Approx. +$500m).

The Kenya project now has a breakeven of c. $45-50/barrel.
This is significant as this now makes the Kenya project viable - even at $55/barrel (TLW's benchmark).

At current oil prices, a partner to fund this project shouldn't be a hard ask.

Huge unknowns here.
Could be good from SFO point of view.
But certainly bad from order book point of view.

Expecting this company to downgrade further to keep up with lack of order coverage and diminishing backlog...

If no good news with SFO presented at this results, then this company is overvalued.

No idea why people are panicking over daily movements.

This company is in recovery phase and will only bring value each year going forwards (assuming the business plan is successful).

Each well drilled aids stabilisation/increase in production which enhances profit from an accounting base and provides cashflow to service debt.

Below estimates of production assuming success of business plan/CAPEX for Jubilee, TEN, Gabon and Ivory Coast:
Est. Production average 2021: 58k
Est. Production average 2022: 63k
Est. Production average 2023: 68-70k
Est. Production average 2024: 73-75k

Ofcourse this doesn't consider Kenya, Guyana, exploration successes, acquisitions, etc.

Lol, Tullow consists of 15% of my portfolio and it's my only oil and gas stock.
I'll be adding at 40-41p if it ever goes there. If it doesn't oh wells, 15% will do.

I'm really losing interest in oil and gas stocks, ENQ and TLW inclusive.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if you sell ENQ for TLW in the next couple weeks either.

Look forward to your stupid blatant ramping.

Sorry Ammu, but OGA data doesn't lie.

ENQ production has been averaging between 31-33k for the first four months.
ENQ reported production @ 32k for first four months.

You talked about decline of TEN.
First half production at TEN = 17.4k
TLW's guidance takes into effect of decline in H2. FY guidance for TEN = 16.2k bopd
So H2 guidance for TEN = 15k, and i'm sure TEN will outperform guidance at current decline rates as the new drill in Enyera comes online later in the year.

"Struggling ??? I won’t call 35k production as struggling"

Yes, struggling.
First quarter production @ 32k

No way Kraken will produce 35k bopd in 2021, and production will further decline in 2022 as no drills. Expecting production to be between 28-33k in 2022 for Kraken.