Member Info for Slift

With hedging it's $45/barrel breakeven.
With the CAPEX and Decom cost cutting it's $35/barrel breakeven.

Ammu, give us your calculation, or back to ENQ.

Sure thing.
It's $35/barrel breakever after costcuttings with CAPEX and decommissioning expenditure.

RNS: https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/tullow_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=495&newsid=1384175

Lol, maybe you should research more :')

Back to the ENQ board please.

Was based on worst case scenario a few weeks ago.
It's only a figure really, swap the $13 with the current Brent spot price of $23/barrel and you should get Breakeven/Positive cashflows for all 3.
But at worse oil prices, for cashflow:
Tullow > Enquest > PMO

So doesn't matter if Enquest has a lower breakever cashflow.

Posted this a while ago, but i'll repost!:

Here's a breakdown comparison between Tullow and competitors:
Assuming current WTI spot price of $13/barrel

Tullow:
60% hedged at average 57$/barrel for 2020
Breakeven cashflow @ $35/barrel for 2020

PMO:
30% hedged at average 60$/barrel for 2020
Breakeven cashflow @ $35/barrel for 2020

Enquest:
20% hedged at average 65$/barrel for 2020
Breakeven cashflow @ $25/barrel for rest of year

Cash Flows at WTI 13$/barrel:
Tullow : 0.6*$57 + 0.4*$13 = $39.4/barrel --> POSITIVE cashflow

PMO : 0.3*$60 + 0.7*$13 = $27.1/barrel --> NEGATIVE cashflow

Enquest : 0.2*$65 + 0.8*$13 = $23.4/barrel --> NEGATIVE cashflow

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH :) (and correct me if i've made a mistake!)

If a tweet from Elon Musk can move a stock so much, will Warren Buffett's shareholders meeting on Berkshire Hathaway's investments move the market?

Guess we'll find out. Interesting times ahead.

Sageman,

Clearly you haven't read the post, I clearly stated that the ratings were prior to RBL.
Also, if you read the title, i'm talking about the instituition investors.
You're bringing irrelevant aspects of the company and market into this thread.
For example:
What the hell does Trump have to do with instituitional investors e.g. pension funds etc?

If you invest by watching Trump, i'm not judging, but it certainly has nothing to do with instituitional investors taking a position in Tullow.

Ofcourse PAD004!

This week/month will be volatile for both Tullow and the markets!
- Potential Crash
- Potential Rebound
- Oil recovery
- Future Q2 results scare
- etc.

Better or worse, IN MY OPINION best to minimise risk by:
- Keeping some cash to prevent locking yourself in a crashed stock
- Keeping some stock to prevent missing out on the recovery.

Everyone should make their own investment decisions based on their own research.

The last ratings of Tullow's credit facility/corporate bonds:
B - December 2019 by Standard and Poor
B3 - March 2020 by Moody's

What does this mean?
- Both had negative outlook for Tullow.
- Both gave ratings on Tullow's debt facilities as "VERY HIGH risk" e.g. the company is close to going bankrupt.

Since March 2020, Tullow has essentially almost turned everything around
- RBL redetermination to provide Tullow headroom
- Sale of assets
- CEO
- Good Q1 performance.
- etc.

Instituitional Investors follow the credit risk ratings for investments to safeguard funds, pensions, etc.
Despite the good performance by Tullow so far this year, instituitional investors WILL NOT invest in Tullow until their credit facility and corporate bond rating is upgraded by firms such as S&P and Moodys.

So when is the next credit risk rating and what will it be?
- Moody's were "scheduled to downgrade" Tullow's risk rating further following their last downgrade. This is unlikely to happen and Tullow are most likely to be upgraded instead.
- Moody's next rating is likely to be in June.
- Standard and Poor's next rating is again likely to be in June and again will most likely be an upgrade.
- Both ratings also depend on the outlook for the oil industry and the economy.

What does this mean for Tullow until June?
- Tullow is unlikely to be invested in by institutional investors until these ratings are upgraded
- Even with a FTSE250 entry, the number of instituitional investors to invest in Tullow will be lower than expected
- Since only private investors will be the majority holders of Tullow, the volatility will remain until credit ratings are re-rated.

I'm sure everyone knows this, but just thought i'd post for those that don't.
DYOR. GLA.

net taxes etc come under other costs. Technically.

Applying 10% cost margin for other costs* = $1489m
*Assuming Tullow doesn't have disastrous write-offs or other very big costs this year

Total profit/loss = $55m
Total earnings per share = 3.9 cents = 3.1 pence

PE Ratio = 8.1

The following calculation should be taken with caution.

Q1 revenue = $386m.
Assuming same revenue for Q2, Q3 and Q4, total revenue = $1544m.

From April 2020 Presentation:
OPEX = 12$/barrel = $328.5m (based on 75k bopd)
CAPEX = $300m
Decommissioning = $65m
G&A = $85m
Explorations = $75m
Depreciation, depletion, amortisation = $500m at a guess based on past performances.
Total costs = $1353.5m
Other costs = $?????m

Total profit/loss = $190.5m
Total earnings per share = 13.5 cents = 10 pence.

ESTIMATED CURRENT PE ratio at 25.18p share price = 2.52.

Feel free to correct.

I'm interested in how you worked the current ratio out tbh.

Will China buy $250b worth of soybeans from the US to stabilise the market?
Find out in the next episode of Trump messing with Tariffs/Trade Deals.

Don't think anyone is gonna pull the "current P/E" value out of thin air for you buddy.

So work it out yourself lol

WORK IT OUT!!

The gap between WTI and Brent June futures has been reduced from 10+ a few days ago to just 6.7$ today.

Expect this gap to reduce another 2-3$ as oil prices stabilises.

Aramco June OSPs to be released next week.

*Future recovery of diamonds in a post corona world where money is BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

I agree, anything could happen after the grace period.
But extension to Petra's lifeline = positive to me!

RNS.
Looks positive to me.