Member Info for Slift

Only deramping from you buddy.

Long term Tullow is strong :)
Why not take the time you waste deramping to go look at the fundamentals of this company?

HOPE YOU BUY BACK SOON MATE!

Taken a small position here.
Some good news to follow from hVivo (i hope :D)

Not to be offensive...
But thank god I don't invest based on what people write here.

N.B. 24.93 is the July contract.

First Whiting Petroleum
Now Diamond Offshore.

https://www.ft.com/content/8e35d2a7-6157-491d-9e89-2918bc94ce33

Surely positive?

Tullow is looking stronger, oil is looking to start positive this week, and lockdowns easing.

I think the longs here are in for a ride. ALL IMO.

I agree with HeresHopin.
Expect to see Kenya asset sale before the end of June. (Could be within 1-6 weeks as a guess).

What do we know about Kenya?
- Tullow and Total had already put up Kenya for sale (or part of it for sale) in February. (Offloading 20% of it's 50% stake being considered, however stake is dependent)
- CNOOC is likely to have ALREADY BID for this.
- Total out of the picture as Total was also trying to offload half of it's stake (12.5%)
- The sale has likely been attracting further bids and interests for Kenya (from AGM)

DYOR.

Some more analysis:

In March, Tullow had 60% sales hedged at 57$/barrel. Tullow had sold 40% at an average of $25.5/barrel
Creating a net cashflow of -$1.4m for March.

January and February cashflow - +$75m

TOTAL cashflow: +$73.5m to the end of March. (Assuming 45$/barrel breakeven)

In my own opinion, The asset sale has overshadowed first quarters performance.

Whilst we already knew some aspects such as realised oil price for January/February, the Trading Update provides the full financials and progress for Q1:

- Production in line with expectations with 75,800 barrels/day (in this challenging environment where most businesses are struggling with social distance measures and lockdowns)
- Q1 realised oil price of $56/barrel (with c. $27m in hedge receipts)
- Revenue for the period $386m from productions
- Progress on Ntomme-9 well in Ghana (Will Tullow revise production guidance once this comes on stream in June?)
- Kenya key workstreams suspended due to COVID19, but critical activities for FID continue
- Argentina explorations continue
- Ivory Coast explorations explorations interrupted after Force Majeure by service provider

All in all, a good update for Q1. IMHO.

hey laidback,

Please let us all know how much money you missed out on when you rebuy Tullow this week.

GLA.

haha Bigdavey.
I've also been working from home for clients, and it's definitely questionable if the "business critical" projects are really business critical during coronavirus :')

until new rumours*

I think the fear of storage running out is past us now.
Whilst i agree that there could be storage issues or even storage running out (depending on demand circumstances) in the future, the initial "fear" has died down.

We won't see any impact on storage fears until start recirculating in the oil world.

P.S. Aramco shares are up 3%, COULD be positive for Brent this week.

"UK has said 'no end of lockdown in sight'"

We will see about this when the UK economy is on the brink of collapse in a couple months.
Following Philip Hammonds comments, I'd like to think the UK is at least preparing a plan to ease down lockdown and restart the economy.

If you really think the UK is prepared to pay 9+ million workers 80% of their salary until mid 2021 where vaccines are fully developed, you'd be surprised!

At the maximum figure of £2500, that's £22b a month.

I'm no financial expert, correct me if i'm wrong.

I'm under the impression that under FCA regulations on disclosure rules, there should be a notification of holdings when the voting rights of a holder reaches, goes above or falls below 3%. There should be further notifications for every 1% after that.

So there is around 34 % voting rights in total (both instituitional and private investors with over 3% voting rights)
with samual having c. 13% rights, leaving instituitional holders with over 3% voting rights at 21%.

hasiba,

I think this list is outdated. A lot of these holders are no longer holders.
The following is a list of holders above 3% that do not hold Tullow at over 3% (or at least not declared as of December 2019 in the company reports):
4.72% Contrarius Investment Management Limited
4.46% Dimensional Fund Advisors L.P.
4.12% The Vanguard Group, Inc.
3.95% Narbonne Investments Limited
3.8% BlackRock, Inc.
3.6% First Sentier Investors (Australia) IM Ltd
3.14% Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Limited
3.06% Otoil Ltd.

That alone adds to 30.85%.

In my opinion,

I agree that Tullow will look very attractive following the $1b proceeds to pay off debt from portfolio management. However, Tullow did appoint a new CEO to grow the company. Any lowball bids during the current market will be dismissed by Tullow.

That said, we might possibly see a takeover bid when the oil market recovers though. That's assuming Tullow looks attractive in the "recovered" oil market.

hasiba, can you provide a source for the claim that 77% of the shares are held by instituitional investors?

In my opinion, I have to disagree with this one, just by looking at share price performance. This volatility isn't seen when there's a high percentage of instituitional investors.

Hi backinblak,

Posted my opinion on the PTR board following a brief research. All in my own opinion though.

backinblak,

Regarding PTR,
From a brief research all i can really say is:
- Good backing from lenders
- Great backing from shareholders
- Good commitment by directors
- Great RNS' this year regarding their operational performances on their two licenses
- £500k needs to be paid by December 2020 to lending facility
- Depressed oil market is likely to affect them quite a bit despite the "attractive" sales contract and Russian tax regime.
- Since 2018, they've been looking to sell assets, as above, depressed oil market is likely to push this forward to 2021 onwards

Bottom line: As with every oil company, needs to weather this storm for this year, and hope for the recovery of oil prices. Asset sales following the recovery will create great shareholder value.

All IMHO.

What bothers me from Canaccord's views is the "sale of all non-operated producing assets in W.Africa". Although Canaccord has probably valued at todays market at depressed oil prices, and a negative economic outlook due to COVID19.

As of December 2019, the value on the interests Tullow has on these assets were $311.5m
The production Tullow received from these assets 24,800 barrels/day.

Tullow has also recently mentioned that they will be spending CAPEX on improving production from the Simba fields in Gabon.

Personally, I wouldn't like to see the sale of these assets. They add value in generating revenue for the years to come. What are your thoughts?