Member Info for Slift

" The transaction values Tullow’s Uganda assets substantially ahead of our risked $330m based on our unrisked value of $830m with a 40% chance of success. ...

Tullow is targeting total asset sales of at least $1bn. In our view, the remaining $400m+ would require sale of all the non-operated producing assets in W.Africa and the operated development project in Kenya.

We expect the Uganda sale to be the main contributor to our projected FY20 net debt reduction of c.$600m. However, as we still anticipate c.$2.15bn net debt at YE20, the equity portion of the company’s enterprise value remains slender.

We maintain our HOLD rating. But following the uplift in our valuation crystallised by the sale of the Ugandan assets, we raise our target price to 30p (from 20p) which is based on our NPV10 risked central value. ...

Overall, we think this deal is an important step towards an appropriate balance sheet structure and a slimmed down asset portfolio, but much more needs to be done, in addition to notably higher oil prices, to transform Tullow into an equity investment rather than just a trading opportunity."

" Tullow’s Ugandan portfolio (including an anticipated stake in the export pipeline) contributed a risked $507m, or 27p/share to our 16p/share Tangible NAV.

Tullow has achieved a decent price in a tough market at a difficult time. However, its ‘survival strategy’ requires the depletion of its opportunity set to pay down debt – receipts of $575m (or 31p/share) compare to Tullow’s net debt contribution to our Tangible NAV of -$2.6bn (or minus 140p).

Importantly the transaction encompasses the requirements of Uganda’s tax regime; i t can be partially pre-empted by partner CNNOC, and as a class 1 transaction it requires shareholder approval. Proceeds are to be used to reduce Tullow’s net debt, strengthen the balance sheet and move Tullow towards a more conservative strategy, which we expect to be enforced by newly appointed CEO."

Trump on oil so far today:
- Trump administration looking at U.S government taking stakes in energy companies
- Administration looking at several options to help oil and gas industry
- Trump says russia and saudia arabia could make further production cuts (thinks that will be a natural process now)
- Trump says Texas and Oklahoma are cutting production, and so is Canada

Notifier** Holding Value
Samuel Dossou-Aworet 184,081,941 (13.07%)
M&G Plc 73,686,244 (5.23%)
RWC Asset Management LLP 71,022,015 (5.09%)
Summerhill Trust Company (Isle of Man) Limited 58,838,104 (4.19%)
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 47,415,702 (3.32%)
Azvalor Asset Management S.G.I.I.C., S.A 45,533,489 (3.24%)

Is the correct list ^.

TOTAL: 30%.

Directors:
Notifier Holding
Les Wood 166,087
Jeremy Wilson 65,000
Dorothy Thompson 26,300
Michael Daly 3,175
Steve Lucas 600

TOTAL: 261,162 shares.
Laughable :').

lol messed up. posted without completing. Ignore.

Notifier** Holding Value
Samuel Dossou-Aworet 184,081,941 £41,492,069.65 (13.07%)
Legal & General Group Plc 128,721,895 £29,013,915.24
M&G Plc 73,686,244 (5.23%)
RWC Asset Management LLP 71,022,015 (5.09%)
Genesis Asset Managers, LLP 69,349,236

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 47,415,702 (3.32%)

I think a lot of bids will try and take advantage of the position Tullow is in, not just the market.

The board of directors sound confident in RNS' and also at the AGM meeting with all the positivity.

But personally, actions speak louder than words.
Would be nice if a board member buys like 30 million shares in the company to show confidence. Would also potentially put Tullow in better negotiating terms, maybe.

Whoops, my misunderstanding here then.

I totally understand the value of Tullow's assets and the fact that we're selling them at a bargain.

However in this current market, selling assets would be the best bet IMO.
It's not just about raising money here, it's also CAPEX. For example, now that Uganda has been sold, Tullow will not have to spend CAPEX on developing it. You could say the same about a farm down of Kenya or other exploration activities.

A rights issue to raise $400m will just be spent on developing assets and other costs. In the position Tullow is currently in, I don't believe this would be the best option.

The possibility of a rights issue was voted for in the AGM.

Tullow have said that they will not pursue a rights issue since 33% of the shareholders voted against this. That's not to say Tullow won't issue rights in the future, but it's definitely not going to happen in the next 6 months. Tullow will release a statement following consultation with shareholders in the next 6 months.

A rights issue at this share price will de-value a lot of long term shareholders.
Raising £400m alone would more than halve the share price. Would you be happy with that? I certainly won't be.

Citadel Advisors LLC 0.62% -0.16% 23 Apr 2020
Key Group Holdings (Cayman), Ltd. 1.88% -0.10% 16 Apr 2020
Marshall Wace LLP 0.79% -0.08% 23 Apr 2020
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 0.76% -0.32% 12 Mar 2020
Qube Research & Technologies Limited 0.54% -0.09% 23 Apr 2020
Värde Partners Europe Limited 2.64% 0.14% 9 Apr 2020
Whitebox Advisors LLC 0.82% 0.21% 21 Apr 2020

I find it hilarious how he's monitoring the share price on a second by second basis, when he's not even invested.

And the fact that he has to post it here :')

Are you that moronic, or just desperate? lol

I'd imagine the volatility in the share price is due to the lack of instituitional holders.
Stability will come as we go up in share price and enter FTSE250.

The following states:
Georgia - Reopen some business by the end of this week
Tennessee - Reopen next week
Texas - Reopen from Monday
South Carolina - Departmental stores/retail reopen Tuesday
Michigan, Idaho and Wisconsin - Reopen after 1st May

Rest undecided/stay at home order as of today.

Oil consuming states (2017)
Texas - 3.92 million barrels/day
Georgia - 0.5 million barrels/day
Tennessee - 0.38 million barrels/day
South Carolina - 0.29 million barrels/day
Wisconsin - 0.28 million barrels/day
Michigan - 0.47 million barrels/day
Idaho - 0.1 million barrels/day

TOTAL: 5.94 million barrels/day

NOTE: Only Texas and Tennessee to FULLY reopen.

The following states:
Georgia - Reopen some business by the end of this week
Tennessee - Reopen next week
Texas - Reopen from Monday
South Carolina - Departmental stores/retail reopen Tuesday
Michigan, Idaho and Wisconsin - Reopen after 1st May

Rest undecided/stay at home order as of today.

Oil consuming states (2017)
Texas - 3.92 million barrels/day
Georgia - 0.5 million barrels/day
Tennessee - 0.38 million barrels/day
South Carolina - 0.29 million barrels/day
Wisconsin - 0.28 million barrels/day
Michigan - 0.47 million barrels/day
Idaho - 0.1 million barrels/day

TOTAL: 5.94 million barrels/day

NOTE: Only Texas and Tennessee to FULLY reopen.

Sounds like you're not a risk taker.
Boring!

Brent July Contract is at 25.5$/barrel, better get buying/selling then nhawan ;)

"The rampers and those who foolishly bought in on the spike yesterday are trying to silence those who actually know the markets. TLW is worth less than 16p at the current oil price and that is where the market is probably taking it short term.
The company is worth around 30p if POO gets to $30, not the dream figures rampers like to propagate. Look at the pre-crash price in January to get a realistic target price."

nhawan, by this logic, the share price should be worth more than 30p then.
As you know, most companies are priced based on the outlook.
The World Bank's outlook on WTI is 35$/barrel for 2020.

I think the World Bank knows more than you, or anyone else on this board, ALL IMHO.

Hi Bigdavey,

Yes, they're reserving the right to issue in the next 12 months (IF THEY ABSOLUTELY MUST). However they will be taking opinions of shareholders in the next 6 months and provide an update.
I don't think that they will issue rights with that many against.

What's interesting is that the CFO (Les Wood) voted against this.
As a CFO, he should know the finances inside and out. However, he doesn't really hold many shares, so doesn't really have an agenda to voting against.
Would be interesting to know why he voted against, but I don't think we'd get that.