Member Info for Slift

More volume than usual today (without an RNS).

Does make me wonder if it's just shorts closing, or is there economical/company news on the way?

I think it's because of the economy.

Can you really have an economy without the oil and gas industry?
- Oil and gas industry contributes to 8% of the US economy.

Wall street futures up, other indexes up.

BP results:
- Net profit dropped by 67%

Conclusion:
- Glad i'm invested in Tullow rather than BP.

Brent won't go negative as it is settled in cash (as opposed to a delivery of 1000 barrels for WTI).

I'd be very surprised if Brent goes negative (even if it can).

Just referring everyone to this thread with the recent price action in futures contracts.

laidback,

I'm intrigued.
Now that you've bought your shares back, how much did it cost or net you in total?

bernithebiker,
I'd imagine most is done via FOB.

Sure it may be worse than Brent, but to give that much of a discount is silly.
Also, the discount to the US is lower than in April. E.g. discounts to US was $3.75/barrel in April. For May it's $0.75/barrel.

Looking at spot crude prices, this just makes me think that Aramco are trying to control the prices for their own benefit (e.g. RIP Shale). Almost as if they "predicted" spot WTI to be around $8 for May.

ALL IMO.

Every deramper here is saying oil will drop further, oil will drop into negatives again etcetc. All doom and gloom like they've never seen sunshine before.

Just bloody ask yourself this:
- How low can oil go?
- What is the potential upside of oil?

All it takes is one tweet, word or action. That's all.

So, Aramco prices for May.

- Aramco has "officially" set the sale of it's oil to the European market at a discount of 10.25$/barrel to the Brent prices.
- Aramco has also "officially" set the sale of it's oil to the US market at a discount of 0.75$/barrel to the Argus Sour Crude Index.

Brent Spot ~$19.5/barrel
ASCI - (supposedly up to +/- $1/barrel difference to WTI)
So WTI spot - $7.9/barrel

So how does EVEN Aramco make a profit for these prices?!
- Selling to Europe for $9.25/barrel
- Selling to the US for $7/barrel

I know some of you are going to reply "Oh, Saudis make a barrel for $3/barrel, so it's easy"
Just to clarify, it's $3/barrel from the ground. Take into transport, export, storage, delivery costs and it adds up.

Actually interested to see what's going to happen to the oil market.

Hopefully we get another RNS confirming a contract for anti-viral trials THIS MONTH :D

What's interesting is Tullow added 20,000 barrels hedge at $54.70 average for this year between 31st december 2019 and end of March 2020.

Thank god for that!

Very unlikely in the short to medium term, imo.

Will we get an RNS from Petra?

60%.
Hedge.
$57.28.
Insurance.

i'd also add "sinking of an iran ship" to that list of price recoveries :')

Or lots of bankruptcies --> permanent supply reduction (assuming the assets aren't sold)

Diving oil price is actually good for Tullow's future :)

Let it happen please!

Thanks for the update mate.

Could you also provide your awesome analysis on the effect this has had on TLW share price?

Wtf no, i'm still waiting for your update on brent and wti prices!
or have you finally bought back? lol

My exit point changes everyday lol.

I will exit when I think that the company has reached the value I think it's worth at the time.
This depends on the fundamentals, outlook for the company, outlook in the industry, and outlook on the economy (including impact from COVID19).