Member Info for Slift

Very unlikely in my opinion Golfer.

If Tullow was for sale, the directors would have already put it up for sale when the ex CEO and Exploration Director left the company.
They instead went hunting for a CEO for 6 months, and have turned this business around. At this stage, unless a very good offer comes in, the management will reject offers.
A takeover would mean that the roles of senior managers would lose their jobs. Although whether the company accepts or rejects an offer is mostly down to shareholder influence.

Having said all that, nothing is stopping a company from making an offer, other than market conditions.

ALL IMO.

Maybe he bought some shares :O!

Not sure why anyone is even bothered lol

One person on a board doesn't make much of a difference to the company, share price and the market. Plus, he's posting facts (Brent price) and real articles about this company he finds. I find that useful. Some comments are pretty hilarious too!

Overall, doesn't make a difference to the fundamentals.
Hope you buy back into this stock Laidback! Whether that's at your target price, or 30p+.

GLA.

Ahh, you're alright then.

I see an upside near term depending on the update.
Update is likely to be at the end of May.

Petra needs to survive if you're looking at 10p... you're going to have to gamble on it for the long term!

All in my opinion, so don't sue me!

Hi Syd,

I'd say it's a very big gamble right now.
I do see upside in the short term. But considering the current share price, i don't expect it to go much higher. Just depends on the conditions and the talks with the lenders and bondholders.

Petra does have the USD/ZAR currency rate going for them though!

Petra will survive May payments as they have the cash to pay the interests. The repayments due in November are the big one right now, it all depends on the diamond market and Petra's luck with big stones. So far no big stones, which isn't a good start.
Petra exceeded their production guidance for first half, but have probably fallen off a cliff following the shutdowns and covid19.

Would asset sales be an option? They need to get fair value for the assets, which again in the market is unlikely.
Hope your average isn't very high Syd.

IMO.

Dunno man, but make sure you're in before the next asset sale or positive update!

Could be imminent, could be months away.

Good luck buddy

Marshall Wace LLP increased shorts to 0.7% recently.

Why would you even want to short a company at 2p? Now that's just greed, could get a rally if RNS news comes positive.

Tornadotony - Definitely is an odd market. Up 50% at close, down 32% after hours. Probably volume issues.

fewdollorsmore
An American Depositary Receipt (ADR) allows foreign company stocks to be traded on the U.S market. So essentially the Tullow ADR (TUWOY) provides american investors to invest in Tullow using the U.S. markets.
The ADR usually follows the London stock in terms of price, but also the market conditions (as with all shares).

Tullow ADR (TUWOY) trades at 50% of Tullow stock (TLW), and is displayed as USD.
E.g. At TUWOY ADR closed at 0.21$. Converting this to GBP, that will be £0.169. Since TUWOY trades at 50% of TLW, this represents a share price value at 33.8p.
NOTE: TUWOY volumes are always low so expect the fluctuations. But can be used as a good guideline.

TUWOY close: 33.8p
TUWOY after hours: 23.1p

DYOR. GLA.

Now that we won't have the usual idiots for the next 3 days.. should be nice and peaceful on this board without the nonsensical ramping and deramping!

In my opinion, I think we're at a critical point in the markets. There are arguments for both positives and negatives. To be a winner, you have to consider both cases and make the right decision!

FOMO
- Stimulus hopes
- China's economy
- Lockdowns easing and back to work
- Kim Jong Un is alive
- Aramco prices up
- Oil steady/rising
- Tullow's business updates (Asset sales etc.)
- Re-rate of bonds/credit
- Outlook for Oil is positive in the next 5 years due to shut-ins

Uncertainty
- How much longer will printed money keep stocks up?
- Recession is a given (2nd quarter is going to be negative growth and negative outlook by Fed, BOE, Eurozone)
- China/US trade deal
- Second wave of virus
- US unemployment rate consensus at 16% (Around 25 million people)
- Unemployment rates in Europe also high (Future outlook negative)
- Tullow business updates (Negative updates etc)
- Will normal life return? What is the full impact this will have in the upcoming months/years (e.g. holidays/flights etc)

How much of all this is priced in? Post your opinions!

No-one can predict the future, but I hope everyone's job is secure.
GLA.

The gap between these front month futures contracts has lowered to $5.7/barrel.

Still another $1.7-2.5/barrel correction to go before both are somewhat stabilised/in conjuction with each other.

But ofcourse, this is front month, has little/no impact on Tullow. But people sure like talking about this on this board.

DYOR. GLA.

Keep gambling then "Boss".

One day you'll bet on red, and land on black.

Just IMO.

MAJORITY of the posts here today is just about the share price and the POO price.
And a lot of junk in between.

I'm under the impression the said MAJORITY trade based on past performances of the share price... Maybe some of you should go research the company a little more rather than just look at the 10 year graph and the past performances...
Just sounds like you're gamblers, try the casino.

And some should just go trade oil futures contract since that's all you talk about here... POO POO POO POO.

Another boring day of discussion here. With a few useful posts.
IMO. GLA for tomorrow.

BOTTOM LINE:
I'm saying we'll have a very volatile week! Markets and Tullow share price :)

*The share price and the company will "readjust" to follow the market relative to it's value.

I'm not ramping, or deramping. This is just my opinion on the markets, and how it will affect Tullow.

So, since the initial crash that happened in March, the US Treasury have been injecting $1.5trillion into the markets, keeping them afloat.
Recently, the injection has slowed, with the treasury adding less and less past couple weeks to keep the market afloat (as investor confidence returned).

However, since Thursday last week after the Quarterly Earnings, people have been cautious as to why the markets are where they were, despite the poor outlook. We saw a small sell off at the end of last week following the quarterly earnings.
Elon Musk and Warren Buffett both gave their views on the stocks. Elon had tweeted that Tesla was too high, and Warren had sold off all of Berkshire Hathaways airline company holdings and indicated that he didn't see any value in any of the shares at this moment. These actions further impacted investor confidence over the weekend.

With the futures (Dow/FTSE, etc) indicating that the markets are set to open lower tomorrow, it further impacts investor confidence. Having said that, futures market can turn around overnight.

This week will be a very volatile week for the markets as investors sit on sidelines and watches what happens:
- lockdown easing
- progress in COVID19.
- Economy (US job data, other QE figures)
This may have it's own effects on commodities.

Whilst I strongly believe that Tullow is an undervalued stock, as other shares drop with the market, Tullow looks more and more "overvalued" in comparison.
Likewise, as other shares rise with the market, Tullow would look more and more undervalued in comparison.
So it's only natural for Tullow to follow the market.

Does it change anything in terms of the company?
- Other than the share price, the company will "readjust" to follow the market relative to it's value.
- The fundamentals will be the same

I cannot predict the market or Tullow's share price. So let's see what happens this week!

DYOR and GLA.

I still don't understand why people ramp or deramp here..
What difference is someone selling 50k or even 100k shares going to do to the market?
Heck, even if you get 20 people on this board to sell 100k shares each, that's only 2 million shares.

2 MILLION SHARES... in a company that has 1408 million shares issued.......

THAT'S LESS THAN 0.2%.

Lol Ammu, i don't think you understand...

Ofc it's financial cashflow, that's what we've been talking about all this time.
$35 IS WITH HEDGING
60% hedged + 40% not hedged = 100% of total barrels sold.

I even gave you a simple example to follow.......

Ammu,

What oiluser said.
Breakeven depends on the costs of running the company.

With 45,000 barrels hedged at $57/barrel and admin/CAPEX cost cuts, Tullow's breakeven is $45/barrel:
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/tullow_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=495&newsid=1378292

Tullow had saved a further $50m on CAPEX and $35m on decommissioning (and probably more savings elsewhere) and posted this business update:
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/tullow_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=495&newsid=1378292

Therefore, in saving a further $85m+ of costs, their breakeven has reduced to c. $35/barrel.

In that case.. since you don't understand maths..

If you sell 6 barrels of oil hedged at $57/barrel, that's $342
If you sell 4 barrels of oil at current Brent Spot price of $23.5, that's $94

So in total, you sold 10 barrels of oil for a total of $436
So on average, you sold each barrel for $43.6.

Idk about you, but that's above $35 :) And THAT'S INCLUDING HEDGES.

That's not a calculation.
Provide something useful please.

I'm here to learn like you too! :)