Member Info for Slift

In my opinion, the current catalysts for the rises/falls are:

June for Tullow:
- Possible information regarding sale of stake in Kenya and the potential buyers
- Possible information regarding farm-down of exploration assets
- Possible re-rate of Tullow's corporate credit facility
- Ntomme-9 production well to come on stream (Could move production guidance upwards)
- Possible further updates on Uganda sale (Uganda Gov + URA entering tax agreement, approval from the minister of energy in Uganda, Shareholder approval)
- General market influences (FTSE, economic figures, stimilus, employment)

June for Oil:
- OPEC meeting 9th June
- Lockdowns easing more (more shops are to be opened)
- Airlines scheduling flights from mid June
- Possible easing of India's lockdown
- Potential second wave
- Storage issues (API reported +8m in inventory build)
- China/US tensions regarding Hong Kong

A lot of these points and more could be speculated by the market to price in early.

All IMO and GLA.

Thanks Dent! Always good to have a balanced view on everything to weigh the risks :)

I agree colonel, more than likely that the grace period is extended.

Although some good news is to be expected in the next update:
- BEE capital payments rescheduled
- RCF Drawdown conditions approved

All IMO.

Perfect opportunity for you to buy/sell then!

July/August would be my guess, after the Trading update.

Reckon Moody's would need to know if Tullow have maintained production guidance until at least then after COVID19. Also, they'd also want to know liquidity positions between RBL determination until next results to see if Tullow has been burning cash or conserving it with the drop in oil price.

Tullow will only reveal that at the trading update, or with other significant news.

Yeah ofcourse., good point.

Tullow needs a credit re-rate before any refinancing, and are making huge steps in paying down the debt to achieve the re-rate. For example, voluntarily reduction the facility commitments from $2.4b to $2.2b, reduction of CAPEX, etc.

Debt is becoming more and more manageable for Tullow. Definitely better than what it was 3 months ago.

GLA.

It's strange, but it's actually better to have debt for a longer period of time, assuming that it's manageable and that inflation is positive. The longer you hold the debt, the less it's worth.

In Tullow's case for their senior notes, assuming 2% flat inflation each year (feel free to correct me):
Their $650m senior notes due in 2022 will effectively be worth approx. $625m (due to inflation). In this period (2020 to 2022), Tullow would have paid approx. $80m in interest.
So when the loan does mature in 2022, Tullow would have paid $705m in total, effectively.

Likewise, with the $800m senior notes due in 2025 will effectively be worth approx $725m (due to inflation). In the period (2020 to 2025), Tullow would have paid approx. $280m in interest.
So when the loan matures in 2025, Tullow would have paid $1005m in total, effectively.

So for both the $600 and the $800m senior notes, Tullow would only have to paid $260m in "excess" to what they borrowed, for the period 2020-2025.

Tullow will likely produce more than $300m free cashflow in a year (or at least this year). That alone will cover the "excess" Tullow have paid.

Less than 1 years worth of cashflow for a 5 year loan of $1450m. Not that bad if manageable.

But ofcourse, this will only be good if inflation is high. Deflation and we're in trouble.
Post your opinions!

All IMO. DYOR and feel free to correct me.

Whilst you COULD be right, "something very corrupt is going on" is an invalid statement without facts.
Sounds pessimistic more than realistic.

No offence, just saying.

Oil has been constantly testing the gap over the past few trading days.

Huge gap up in the coming days if the current optimism doesn't fade.

WTI: Gap up to $41
Brent: Gap up to $45

Good time to be invested in oil. Even if it has little impact on TLW's share price, should improve the revenue, cashflow and the future of Tullow.

GLA.

It's supposedly end of may.

Within the next 3 days!

Hi darren,

I'd be cautious with Petra Diamonds. Now that's a gamble, but good luck if you do invest!

A couple of Yellowman's posts on HUR lol

1: Am only a young lad I have invested in hurricane for 2 years I know that is not long But I am a young man only 22 and I know I have absolutely no knowledge in the oil industry BUT that dose not mean I do not what a good investment is....

2: Hi am just a young man so am here for the long term I don't need the money at the present time am fortunate that way so I can afford to take the gamble lol

Age is definitely not an excuse to gamble. You gambled, you lost. No reason to take it out on other people mate.
Do some research and you might win the next time!

Anyone know why this person is so negative towards Tullow? Not only is he negative about the share, he's also negative about the posters here (from past and current posts).

GLA.

effect* before laidback tells me off or something lol

lol, nice one. Pretty sure corona ALSO HAS LITTLE affect on the younger population.

Ghana's population average age: 20.7 years
Kenya population average age: 18 years
Guyana population average age: 26.7 years

Now go have a good bank holiday weekend and you might get a chance to invest in a company come Tuesday :)

GLA.

Chinese takeout, or takeaway? :')

Why buy an AM when you can buy a fiat 500? Would suit you better! :')

You need to keep an eye on how the competitors are doing!

Hi xel,

Hurricane have had bad news one after another recently.
Today's update was very negative - not only did they shut down production of one of the lancaster wells, but they also suspended production forecast.

Hurricane forecasted an average of 20,000 barrels/day from these lancaster wells in December.
They weren't going to achieve production forecast of 17,000 barrels/day even if they didn't shut the well down (Seeing as they averaged 15.5k barrels/day to date).
- Just means that the wells are underperforming and don't have the flowrates they expected.

Their cashflow is at risk, and whilst they may have liquidity for the time being, future is uncertain and this weakens the balance sheet.

Share price drop has been overdone though, since they do have liquidity and could potentially turn the ship around.
Right now, bearish until Hurricane provides an update on guidance and provides a plan to improve production.

High risk, high reward.

All IMO. GLA.

Shpunken,

It's not all doom and gloom.
Since the start of this year, FTSE100 has dropped close to 30%. Sure Wall Street might be overpriced, but we trade with Brent and on the London Stock Exchange.

Now does a 30% drop in the markets account for a -4% GDP growth in Q1?
Obviously with Q2, the forecasts are -12.5%.

Q1 and Q2 make up half the year, and on average using both the forecast for Q2 and the growth for Q1, the average GDP contraction for this half year is approximately -8%.

Assuming Q3 and Q4 are not negative growth, the GDP contraction for the year can potentially be much less than 8%. But ofcourse, this depends on lockdowns easing and whether the country can have positive growth in Q3 and Q4 to offset the damage done in Q1 and Q2.

It's definitely too early to determine how much growth or contraction there will be in Q3 and Q4, when we haven't even had Q2 figures yet.

So does a 30% drop in the markets account for -8% (+/- 3%) GDP growth for the year? Post your thoughts!

DYOR. GLA.

https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/sa-reserve-bank-slashes-interest-rates-by-50-basis-points-48304473

Should be good for PDL. But still looking forward to the RNS.
Will be here imminently.

GLA.