Member Info for Slift

Debt isn't all that bad.

From the accounts (2019), Tullow have the following:
RBL - $1357m, maturing in Nov 2024
$300m convertible bond - $278m, maturing in July 2021
$650m Senior Notes - $645m, maturing in 2022
$800m Senior Notes - $790m, maturing in 2025

Tullow have ALREADY paid (in April) circa. $200m ammortisation for RBL which was supposed to be due in Oct 2020. Thus, reducing their debt to $2.8b.

Their next two payments are the $278m of the $300m convertible bond maturing in July 2021, and another RBL ammortisation payment of $211m due in April 2021.

Tullow will likely use the proceeds from Uganda to pay BOTH of these off, totalling ~$500m if you take into account interest.

After these payments, the next payments will be another circa. $200m ammortisation in October 2021, April 2022 and October 2022 for RBL and the $650m senior notes in 2022.

- Tullow needs circa. $200m to pay off ammortisation in 2021
- Tullow needs approx. $1000m to pay off senior notes and ammortisations in 2022.

Now that Tullow is in a better position than end of 2019.. 2022 is the next hurdle.
It's not easy to pay off $1000m in 2022 without increasing portfolio through explorations and improving production. Also would need to hope for $60+/barrel oil price.

ALL IMO. GLA.

How can you have a "personal view" on debt without any explanation of how you've come to that?

Tullow's assets at Uganda was valued at $1000m at 31st Dec 2019.
Was sold for $575m recently.

Tullow assets at Kenya was valued at $679m at 31st Dec 2019.
Tullow are looking to sell 25% of the 50% stake it holds in Kenya (but could be more, could be less).
I'm going to make a very rough and not to be trusted guess of $200m for 25% of Kenya assets in the current market conditions.

Tullow are currently $2.8b in debt.

So how do you even calculate $500-700m total debt on the sale of these two assets lol.

On the sale of these assets, Debt (COULD) be reduced to $2b if Tullow decides to pay it off.

Furthermore, if Tullow uses ALL FCF from operations to also pay off debt (depending on oil price), they could pay off an additional $300m-400m.

The asset sales at Kenya (25% stake) and Uganda will provide Tullow $775m (using my very rough estimate that shouldn't be taken on board by anyone). Tullow will still need to raise $225m from stake sale in explorations (and it's non-operated portfolio).

If again Tullow decides to use those proceeds to pay off debt, TOTAL DEBT would be reduced to $1.5-1.6b.

But realistically, Tullow will look to use the proceeds to fund CAPEX and OPEX costs for 2021.

ALL IMO. GLA.

EU standard for emissions?
If you really cared for this, you'd have a fleet of bicycles :')

It's definitely an interesting topic, but there's not much between supermarket and BP/Shell other than brand.

All IMO.

May not be for us, but it certainly is for Americans.
https://gyazo.com/22a201b655377834c106d3e2149b9e09
https://gyazo.com/904d36ad685ccbf90b1b571928d4cb09

DOW to 50,000 on this news :')

Supermarket fuel and octane number is a discussed topic with no real research/answers to prove anything.

I always top up using Tesco's Momentum 99. Around 106-107p where I live.

- Talks of the OPEC meeting being moved up to 4th June.
- Extension of the 9.7m barrels/day OPEC+ cut is looking likely (possibly even up to end of 2020)
- Riots/looting etc across America (negative sentiment to the markets)
- US/China tensions eased as trade deal in tact, but may resurface next week as Trump announces further actions to severe ties with HK/China.
- SpaceX's Dragon+Falcon successful (positive sentiment to the markets)
- 50+ tested positive in Jubilee, but production unaffected.

DYOR. GLA.

Agree Bluemoon, anything to extend the Petra's lifeline is positive news.
Following Petra's last market update, they have "ALMOST" (subject to certain conditions) have achieved everything that they had set out to do regarding liquidity risks and discussions with their lenders.

On top of that, Petra's Q3 production was in line with expectations during this crisis. The shutdown/50% operation will obviously affect Q4, but that's why it was crucial to reschedule repayments.

A slight uptick in diamond prices should also bring confidence to this sector.

Next update will provide us with operations in SA on COVID19 (currently at 50%) and if back to 100%, a production guidance for 2020.
Next trading update is in July to announce production results up to June and to provide a 2021 production guidance.

No immediate threats for petra anymore assuming that the conditions set out by bondholders are met.

GLA.

Hi colonel,

The 27% fall in diamond prices was during opportunistic bidding at the beginning of the COVID19 crises (same time as the market crash). I believe it's more the reduced activity in the pipeline due to lockdowns and border closures that's affecting the sales.

Either way a lot of this fall is offset by the USD/ZAR rate
USD/ZAR rate of 17.5 vs 14 is a 25% offset.

All IMO.

Very positive update IMO. Definitely better than I expected.

Summary of Q3 Update:
- Petra aren't burning through cash - $77m cash at bank + inventories
- BEE capital payments in May and November rescheduled. Drawdown conditions agreed. - Forbearance agreement with bondholders - Expiring 31st August (with potential month by month extension, subject to a few conditions)
- Reduced supply of diamonds from major diamond producers
- COVID19 is still a problem to attract buyers/reduced activity of the pipeline (production, sales, cutting, trading, consumers)
- circa. 25k carats worth of high value diamond from Q3 + Q4 inventory to be tendered in June

- USD/ZAR at 17.5.

Looking positive for Petra, but still a long road to recovery.
Good luck to all here!

And ofcourse, DYOR and all IMO.

Brent Gap up to $45/barrel for the rest of the year:

Tullow's Revenue:
Q1 - $386m
Q2 (worst case estimate) - $307m
Q3 (assuming constant $45/barrel) - $360m
Q4 (assuming consstant $45/barrel) - $360m

Total: $1413m

Tulllow's Free Cashflow (same assumptions as above):
Q1 --> +$76m
Q2 --> +$68m
Q3 --> +$119m
Q4 --> +$119m

TOTAL FCF: $382m

Plenty to service debt and put this company in a better position. Hedges has definitely saved this company for 2020.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

Whilst $40-45 may see the start of wells again, I don't think we need to worry about US being back to normal levels for the next few years.

It's not as easy as turning a valve to restart wells. Most will need CAPEX allocation and may need to be redrilled. Majority of the players aren't in a position to do that, or even think about it until oil is well above $60/barrel. Furthermore, planning to restart wells to get CAPEX approved, equipment ordered etc. will not be instant and will be weeks if not months long projects.

What a higher price will do is prevent more shut in of wells.
It's definitely beneficial for Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut production in the current situation as this will increase the price of oil, and they both will end up earning similar/better revenue whilst conserving their oil reserves.

All IMO.

Oh and ofcourse, all in my own opinion!

Both Brent and WTI testing resistance today (again). Just set's the stage for next week.

Unfortunately, Oil is unlikely to move up any higher unless there is a significant news or rumour for oil to gap up 15-20%. This is more likely to happen with OPEC+ next week as rumours of potential cuts/extension of cuts is discussed and Russia's stance starts surfacing.

June may see investors return to oil companies as oil passes through this barrier. Tullow will also be way above breakeven price after the gap up, in comparison to major oil companies.
(Gap up to $45 Brent vs $35 Tullow Breakeven).

GLA.

Morning xel,

Well done on your investment! Good luck on your next investment if you do sell LAM :)

Hobby, but planning for an early retirement and financial security though!

I'm supposedly "working at home" right now :')

Ntomme-9 well is within the TEN fields in Ghana. This is expected to come on stream in June. This well, if flow rates are sufficient, should increase production guidance for this year. Or at least offset any production loss for the year.

So production guidance for the year is going to be at least within expectations or better.

GLA.

The Q3 trading update for scheduled for late May. Petra hasn't posted an RNS for any delay.

Late May confirmation: https://gyazo.com/c4f5cc3cfeb797abd893c08202c0bde2
Petra Events Calendar: https://gyazo.com/ccfd6caa49a3ecb4c3d6ea92afc99722
Petra's most recent Market Update RNS: https://gyazo.com/cd77bd669edc5d622efbb85a5af5ba71

Any thoughts?

Hi Happyinvestor,

The well in Suriname Block 47 (Goliathberg-Voltsberg North) is scheduled for Q4.

Share Price should get moving again next week on speculations of oil production rise/cuts for the OPEC meeting on 9th June. Or that's what I think.

All IMO.

Q2 Trading Update*

You're probably right, but it just doesn't make sense to delay it by a whole month (1/3 into Q3)...

Stability is sometimes good for the share, definitely better than a pump and dump imo.
Currently, due to the stability, Tullow is neither oversold, not overbought!

Anyways, just a thought on my previous post regarding June activities:
In the past 3+ years, Tullow have always provided Q3 trading update at the end of June, with the Half year Results in July.

This year, according to Tullow's financial calendar, the Q3 trading update is scheduled for end of July, and Half year results scheduled for September.

I wonder if there is a reason for this delay? Or could it be that these dates are a typo and that we should be expecting Q3 Trading Update in June?

Any thoughts?