Member Info for Slift

Hi Timmy,
No idea, there's a lot of uncertainty around at the moment with the economy, company and covid19. At the moment, I don't fear missing out.
I tend to do follow and do research on all the stocks on my watchlist. Though I follow Tullow more than others as I do see more potential and value here, but also risk. Interesting to watch this play out!

Good luck with your investment!

It will certainly be a separate RNS, but i'd imagine it'd be backed up with the Trading update.

Next 45 days are crucial for Tullow.
- Shareholder vote for Uganda
- Gov of Uganda and Minister of Energy approval for Uganda sale
- Trading Update with information on strategy going forwards and also information on data that's being analysed (possibly)
- More updates/information on raising $1b portfolio management
- Moodys and S&Ps credit rating
- Ntomme-9 well comes online (Tullow likely to provide expected flow rates with trading update)

ALL IMO.

Brent rising $42.31

Personally, I think it's very likely for Kenya RNS to drop this month.
But I also don't think Tullow should offload Kenya till later in the year when market conditions are better.

Would be interesting to see if Tullow sells all stake or the 20% that they were initially going to sell.
More likely to be 20% if RNS comes this month.

ALL IMO.

Not quite imposed by RBL, but required to show liquidity going forwards.
Tullow used the fact that they would raise $1b through managing portfolios to get the RBL approved at the end of March.

Thanks Tornadotony,

I only asked so I could compare to what I was getting.
I got similar revenue estimating at a worse case scenario to you and similar cashflow.
For the same period (Jan --> End of May), I got $590m revenue and free cashflows of $129m.

However, it's not as simple as comparing the sale value of Uganda to 2019 figures to calculate the loss. I'm assuming you're using the remaining assets recoverable amount (of $960m) following the writedown in your calculations?

I see you have used $45 breakeven in your calculation. The breakeven is $45/barrel for Q1 and $35/barrel for Q2, Q3 and Q4.

I'm not sold that Tulllow haven't been using their hedges though. Hedged amount is 45k barrels/day and Tullow will have more than utilised this with their daily production.

Hi Tornadotony,

Could you explain a little more about your valuation?

They have, here's the RNS:
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/tullow_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=495&newsid=1386832

There's enough marketing about him..

They provided information already in April about his appointment and his track record.
Nothing new to update the shareholders today.

A follow on post:
Page 15 for Tullow's licenses in regards to Total's.
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/1915/7960/2892/tullow-oil-plc_overview-presentation_Jan-2020.pdf

Also, Slide 12 is interesting.
Likely Ivory Coast and/or Guyana drill for 2021.

Interesting Article here:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Supermajors-Are-Flocking-To-This-Booming-Oil-Frontier.html

Tullow owns 2 licenses near the Venus-1 wildcat drill planned by Total.
Could be another Guyana/Suriname exploration asset for Tullow if Total succeeds.

ALL IMO.

Yup!

One thing you might find is that the stockpiles of crude oil will likely go down as petrol prices rise. Good early indicator if you follow crude oil inventories.
Generally demand isn't the only indicator, it's also refining costs. All the jet fuel present in crude will probably be converted at the refinery in an extra process (which adds costs).

Crazy how every 3 times you fill your car up with petrol, you're using about 2 barrels of crude oil of fuel.
or everytime you fill your car up with diesel, you're using about 1 barrel of crude oil of fuel.

Petrol prices may rise more drastically in comparison crude oil prices though due to the lack of planes in the sky. Or that's my opinion :)

A barrel of oil is usually 159 litres, but can be up to 163 litres, depending on the type of barrel you use.
Would be £11.13 increase! That's some margin petrol stations make on this. Even if they have to pay 58p + 20% on fuel on taxes.

Petrol prices always lag behind oil price. I'd imagine it's only just catching up after Brent rise from 30 $--> 40$/barrel.

Thanks Icarus, company needs to file for bankruptcy for that to happen :p

Okay Steve.

You keep following advice from bigsmoke, colonel and Icarus when they are probably not at all invested here :)

All the best to you.

Steve.. cheerleading isn't going to make the Petra turn around as a company..

I'd be worried if you follow cheerleaders on share chats to buy your stocks............

The drop was for me to buy :)

Forward programme will likely be provided in July by the interim CEO.
Would be interesting to see which strategy Hurricane pursue going forwards.

A stable guidance in production for 2020 would be nice, even if it's 10 or 12k bopd.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2118760-guyanavenezuela-border-dispute-heads-to-icj

"So can we revert to farmdowns, improve the P&L by writing back impairments, improve the net assets, auction and pay down some debt?"
Confused...