Member Info for Slift

Thanks brian,

I have already had a look at those.
UJO:
I see that you are looking for 10p per share here.. but UJO has 15.4b shares in issue.. and i don't see it at 10p ever. Whilst they currently have cash atm, I woudn't be surprised if in the future they have more placings for billions of issues.
I think UJO is overvalued for what it is. There are other oil and gas companies that are undervalued in comparison (imo).

There is upside following first oil of their wressle project. Good luck though.

Thanks for the summary Tonadotony.

I have been looking through AIM listed mining for an investment in the future. I will keep an eye on Pensana.

Good luck with your investment!

Pensane Rare Earths?

I'm always skeptical about buying any company that is newly listed.. What made you buy into Pensana?

"The latter seem curiously missing in action which I find strange as probability says they should find at least 2 of these special stones per year. Yet there has been nothing discovered of note for almost over a year now."

I suppose mainly due to productivity at the mines. Covid19 has shut down the mines, and currently the ones that are operating are operating at 50% resource. I'd imagine results to be poor this time round.
Hopefully see a big diamond find in Q3/Q4 if conditions improve.. and if Petra is still operating.

Sailplane,
"we could have a ‘dead-end down' pocket of trapped (perched) water sitting close below the 7Z well – close enough for that pocket to undergo, in effect, localized conning"
Possibly, but we won't know until well 7z is run on it's own for a long period of time. And trying to experiment with this would be a huge risk.

"The FPSO's Produced water handling is shown as an impressive 20,000bpd, even so, it would obviously be really nice for us all if the perched water pockets showed signs of emptying some time pretty soon."
I don't think the water pockets will empty soon. Water is only drawn through a differential in pressure, in equilibrium.
Am i right in saying - The "perched water pockets" will empty as the pressure drop between these pockets increases. Or in other words, a lot of barrels need to be produced, such that the pressure within the wells decrease to the point where all water is drawn from the specified "higher water pocket"?

Completion of asset sale will take place this quarter - Likely August. Tullow is hoping to get this completed before September.

The vote in July is the shareholders approval vote.
Tullow still requires approval from the Uganda Minister of Energy as well as the Uganda gov and URA.

Personally, there's lack of evidence that it's an aquifer.
There has been enough tests and results, as well as continuous operational performance data which is available to the management.

Hurricane will confirmed it by now if it was.
It shouldn't be speculated that the wells are drawing from the aquifer.

1. Not really, at 8% from well 6.
2. Well 7z was concerning, but 21% water cut in Q2 as per last RNS is manageable.
3. No, Esp would not make a difference, unless the ESP is commissioned such that to minimise water production.

All IMO.

Your posts are useless and annoying af..

Hi Betrayed,

I must admit, that the shorting activities in the UK market is one of the most corrupt. There are a lot of shorters going after UK firms once they have analysed the accounts and or company. The UK market is also very undervalued in comparison to most other markets. Whilst there is value here, there's also a lot of corrupt activities (known and unknown). I'm not sure if same can be said for say the US market.

Muddy Waters for example exposed NMC Healthcare, and are looking to take down Burford Capital too.
The FCA does regulate a lot of financing activities, but there's only so much they can do. With accounts, it's easy to hide small figures here and there, where noone will be able to figure out unless looked very close and recalculated.

PMO was definitely a target by ARCM.

But I don't think there's much going on in regards to TLW shorters. Just shorters trying to take advantage of the market and TLW's financial position, in the same way investors are trying to take advantage of the market and TLW's financial position.
Going forwards, as uncertainty decreases with both the oil industry and TLW, shorters will start reducing their stakes.

In the US at least, the energy industries earnings are said to contract by -150% for Q2, with revenues said to contract by -40% in Q2. I think almost all energy company with a bad balance sheet are targets at the moment.

ALL IMO.

adoubleuk,

"But as a qualifier, don't expect some sudden news about increased production and possibly reduced water-cut in the immediate. There's more 'experimentation' to be done to 'optimize' things. But much more possibilities."
I agree with this. I don't expect a huge increase in production or even attempts at it until after the submission of the technical review and the production plans with the strategy going forwards in September.

Regarding the multiple possibilities to optimise the production rate, there's a very high chance that Hurricane will just focus on the ESPs with the VSDs going forwards. Controlling flows with VSDs would provide less risk IMO. What we don't know is if the ESPs are working at their optimum - likely not which may have uptime issues.

Whilst it's great to have the maximum flow rate with minimal water cut and 100% stabilised flows, there's a huge risk that comes to achieving this (as we have seen from the multiple past RNS's). Going forwards, from the testing and the problems encountered so far, the technical team have some sort of guidance to mitigate risks in the future (should they keep attempting to achieve the optimum flow rate).

Personally, I think the recent RNS is the first step required to bring back confidence in the fact that the team plan on stabilising the production following the installation and comissioning of the ESPs. The short period of testing with the ESPs in the next 2 weeks will likely not encounter any problem with interference as these ESPs are operated through a VSD motor. The water cut on the other hand needs to be managed.

ALL IMO.

Hi adoubleuk,

"'Optimizing' output from the current two producers ... may take a bit more time than pre-CV19 economic meltdown"
Surely, with the ESPs commissioned, the optimisation will not take long. The ESPs minimise the interference between the two wells. I suppose the "optimisation" woud be the optimum flow rate that provides stabilisation and most manageable water cut?

This optimisation will likely be completed by at the next update when they provide a stabilised production rate.
What do you think?

Are you joking?

Williamson Mine is one of Petra's key assets. Likely to be more offers for this mine (and Cullinan) than Finsch and Koffiefontein.
There is a lack of pink diamonds going forwards due to the planned closure of Rio's argyle mine. At $50-80m value, Williamson will easily be picked by top mining companies.
Argyle mine currently produces over 90% of the worlds' red and pink diamonds. What do you think is going to happen when this closes? I see huge potential in Williamson, more than Finsch and Koffiefontein.

Only downside to Williamson is that it isn't profitable atm due to current diamond prices. But enough CAPEX spending will prove it to be a decent mine.

I tend to use petrolprices app quite a lot.
The price of petrol in the UK has gone up to 106.9p (at Tescos where I live).

This is an early indicator that there is demand for petrol and in turn refineries are more utilised in production with the improved margins. Sooner or later, as this demand increases, refineries will increase production. Likely to see huge draws in crude in the next two weeks as refineries stockpile more crude to cope with the demand. The market and crude prices will also benefit from the talks of the next round of stimulus in the US set to begin week commencing 20th July.

However, the current stockpiles in crude is still at all time highs, and the industry is trying to balance demand with supply (with the supply set to increase in August due to relaxation of OPEC cuts). So until there is significantly higher demand than supply, there won't likely be consistent huge draws in crude each week.

ALL IMO.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-elm/elementis-shares/news/when-should-you-buy-elementis-plc-lonelm/

UBS RAISES ELEMENTIS PRICE TARGET TO 115 (110) PENCE - 'BUY'

??? Makes no sense how these brokers raised target by 5p, when the current price is nowhere near it.

I suppose to be hedging 10k bopd/day nope for the rest of the year.. is some kind of confidence that their oil production will be at least above 10k going forwards.

$3.4m isn't a lot. It certainly prevents any risks regarding another fall in oil price.

It's a normal procedure for companies to inform of large shareholders before selling assets or company
Not quite sure why Petra hasn't informed the Tanzania government. Could be a lot of reasons.

However, even as a 25% shareholder, they can't really halt the decision. Requires a majority (51%) to approve or disapprove of sales. But getting 51% of the votes from 75% of the remaining shareholders can be tricky if the diamond mine is being sold for cheap.

Longish,
Mainly been researching AIM oil/gas and mining for a long term investment. Not sure if I have found anything yet, but there's a few potentials that I'm sitting till later in the year before I make any investments.

Tonadotony,
My thinking behind these farmdowns is that Tullow is likely to drill Guyana and Ivory Coast in 2021. Farming down these licenses this year will reduce their drill costs.

Ivory Coast probably won't attract many buyers.. but the potential drill locations are onshore (costs to drill will be low). Furthermore, Tullow have been doing seismic acquitisions in Ivory Coast which may be used to attract buyers. But like you say, high chance of no buyers but will wait and see what Tullow's strategy going forwards is.

Tullow has also planned a 3D seismic survey in MLO122 for late 2020, wouldn't surprise me if Tullow farm this out before then either.

Regarding Namibia, Total have the Venus-1 well planned for H2 2020, and Shell is also plan on drilling a well in Q4 2020 or Q1 2021. I'd imagine Tullow will wait for these results to come in before farming down the Namibia licenses.

All IMO.

I'd consider the following licenses to be farmed out by Tullow.

These licenses are more likely to be farmed out than others. Some of which will more likely be farmed out in 2021/2022.
Guyana - Orinduik Block
Peru - All licenses apart from Z-38 (Tullow did not encounter oil at Marina-1 in Z-38)
Argentina - MLO122
Ivory Coast - All licenses
Suriname - All licenses.

For this year, Ivory Coast and Guyana farm out is more likely than others.
Watch this space as exact licenses likely confirmed during Half Year Results update.

DYOR.

Unfortunately, everyone's immune system gets weaker in the winter.
A winter wave will both increase cases.. and fatality rate.

Everyone should be careful and stay safe. The social distance will most likely become more of a concern then.