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“The report said early market signals on the supply of 0.5 per cent fuel oil indicate that it is not likely to be readily available, nor priced at a discount to crude (typical of the current 3.5 per cent grade), with attendant cost implications for ship owners.”

https://t.guardian.ng/business-services/anxiety-builds-over-imo-2020-ship-content-directive/

Betting and hopes are not language I would use Salinger. For me power is a certainty whilst the marine market potential is fast becoming a significant and realistic opportunity, just needs some forward thinking shipper to recognise the cost savings and environmental benefits associated with synthetic fuel oil or not.....place your bets.

“With fuel costs already representing more than 50 percent of total operating expenses, the IMO 2020 poses an increase too significant for carriers to absorb and stay operational.”

https://www.maritime-executive.com/corporate/new-fuel-emission-standards-to-increase-freight-rates

“A widely cited oil market expert offered a pessimistic view on the transition to low-sulfur fuel in the ocean shipping industry, saying the steamship lines and their customers are largely unprepared for the switch.”

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/maritime/daniel-yergin-imo-2020

“ Alix Partners suggested that carriers will have to impose significantly higher fuel surcharges this year and beyond to maintain margins at even 2018 levels.”

https://shipinsight.com/articles/2020-to-have-big-impact-in-liner-operators

https://shipinsight.com/articles/pacific-basin-to-buy-big-in-scrubbers-and-ballast-systems

“The announcement of the scrubber installation programme represents another company making a U-turn on scrubber use after having previously been set against their use. While the exact number of systems was not mentioned, Berglund referred specifically to the company’s owned fleet of Supramaxes. Presently this would suggest up to 28 vessels will be fitted with scrubbing systems.”

https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/222515-imo2020-the-hsfo-conundrum

Prediction is HSFO demand will drop by 90% in Q3.

https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/886488-promise-of-improved-economics-wins-over-another-scrubber-sceptic

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/03/belgian-scientists-announce-new-solar-panel-that-makes-hydrogen/

“The new report by the global consulting firm AlixPartners also finds that the new fuel rule could expose carriers on just eastbound Asia-Americas routes plus Asia-Europe routes—which together account for about 20% of container-shipping volume globally—to up to $3 billion in additional costs alone.”

https://www.marinelink.com/news/imo-cost-usdbln-463500

“Large volumes of MGO are expected to move from North Asia, India and the Middle East to Europe to meet the burgeoning demand in runup to and after the new marine fuel emission norms are implemented.
Demand for MGO can at least double next year, said Ralph Leszczynski, Singapore-based director for research for Banchero Costa, a global shipping brokerage and consultancy. Asia is now heavily surplus in gasoil and most of these volumes will move to Europe, he said.”

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/imo-2020-sulfur-cap-pushes-up-sale-prices-of-secondhand-tankers-sources/

“As a result, cargo prices, airline tickets and the cost of sending a package could rise. Some analyst say there could even be temporary fuel shortages, as refiners and transport companies scramble to meet the needs of the shipping industry.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/biggest-change-in-fuel-since-leaded-gas-went-away-could-raise-prices.html

New maritime measures threaten to rock oil industry’s boat:

Stretch for the imagination:-

“Saudi oil is already one of the cleanest forms of hydrocarbon product in the world, according to recent scientific studies.”

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1460846/business-economy

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/1716950/maersk-tankers-opts-for-scrubbers-on-lr2-tankers

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-heralds-the-hydrogen-revolution-20190228-p510yr.html

Australia must immediately prepare for a hydrogen revolution to win the global race to secure lucrative Asian export contracts, the Morrison government says as it pledges to kickstart the burgeoning industry.

The final countdown to 2020 begins in Amsterdam:-

“We are not claiming LNG is not a fossil fuel, but it offers the possibility to reduce emissions right away,” says Mr Stiefel. “No other technology is available that does that. Discussion of hydrogen and ammonia for example is useful looking towards 2030-2050, but not for ships being delivered within the next 10 years.”

https://www.mpropulsion.com/news/view,the-final-countdown-to-2020-begins-in-amsterdam_56992.htm

Researchers from universities in Germany and at Stanford University created a financial model for a wind farm connected to a hydrogen electrolyzer. They modeled electricity and hydrogen prices as if this theoretical system were based in Germany and then in Texas. The researchers concluded that "renewable hydrogen is projected to become cost competitive with large-scale fossil hydrogen supply within the next decade."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/02/renewable-hydrogen-could-be-competitive-in-a-decade-researchers-say/

Shipowners with scrubber-equipped vessels may face challenges securing fuel unless they lock in their requirements well ahead of the new low sulfur emission limits on bunkers that apply from 2020, a senior industry executive said.

As most suppliers will store and sell mostly low sulfur fuels, HSFO may not be easily available or cheap, Raitt said.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ships-with-scrubbers-must-lock-in-high-sulfur-fuel-oil-needs-to-avoid-supply-hassles-lloyds/

The early market signals associated with the supply of 0.5%S fuel oil indicate it is not likely to be readily available, nor priced at a discount to crude (typical of the current 3.5% S grade). This is influencing ship owner decisions, as they seek to secure a low-cost fuel.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/woodmackenzie/2019/02/25/uncertainty-shrouds-imo-2020s-impact/#74c7e71fcd30

Aramco To Discontinue Fuel Oil Production By 2024

While the Saudi oil giant plans to discontinue fuel oil production at its refineries, it has an ambitious plan to double its refining capacity and is heavily investing in refining and chemicals in pursuit of securing more downstream markets for its crude oil, Al-Judaimi said in the middle of 2018.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-To-Discontinue-Fuel-Oil-Production-By-2024.html