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UK (Tory) was the world's fastest-growing major G7 economy in H1 2024.

UK (Labour) is the world's slowest-growing major G7 economy in H2 2024.

UK (Labour) is sliding into recession in H1 2025.

The trend is clear.

You can absolutely lay this at the door of Rachel from Accounts. A junior admin from the Halifax complaints department elevated (bizarrely) to the highest finance office in the land. She has done nothing but talk the country down, raise unnecessary taxes up, and push state debt to its worst ever level. We are now sliding into recession, with inflation once again on the up, and the tax burden going thru the roof. A stagflation nightmare. The leaping cost of state debt once again raises the spectre of debt-default, non-payment, and cap in hand to the IMF. Labour has learnt nothing from the 1970s.

Yield at its highest level this century, a worrying 5.2%. The cost of borrowing for the UK state in 2025 is going up and up, due to Labour ideology in the 2024 budget. Get ready for more huge tax rises this year, in H2 2025, to pay for it 👍

A common theme from these DCA predictions for the past year is that payout estimates are trending up (not down). The outlook is getting worse, not better.

Gunsup, PT51,

Agreed, US and UK bonds are flashing amber to red.

STP,

Buffett heads into 2025 with his biggest cash position in 30 years...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/22/buffett-heads-into-2025-with-biggest-cash-position-in-more-than-30-years.html

Shareprice growth for FY 2024...

NWG = +82%

BARC = +72%

STAN = +48%

AIBG = +31%

HSBC = +24%

BGEO = +18%

LLOY = +14%

BNC = +10%

BIRG = +3%

CBG = -70%

* Average of 10 big listed banks = +23%

US govt debt is going up in 2024, and this in turn is sending US GDP up, US company profits up, and US stockmarkets up.

If US govt debt goes down in 2025, this in turn will send US GDP down, US company profits down, and US stockmarkets down.

If the US Wall Street bubble is going to pop, it may come from Elon Musk. He wants to cut US govt spending (debt) by up to -33%.

If the US goes down, the UK FTSE (and LLOY) will go down with it.

2024 pretty much turned out as expected. The red Tories were kicked out for swinging far to the left. Reform naively split the rightside vote, and failed to understand how the UK's gerrymandered FPTP voting "democracy" actually operates. While Labour are ushering in a hardcore Marxist state as fast and furiously as they possibly can. Expect 2025 to feel more like 1975.

Depressing stuff, mate. Little New Year cheer ahead. Labour's state largesse and doomscrolling have all gotta be paid for, somehow. UK is looking at a recession in H1 2025, followed by another horrific rise in tax during H2 2025.

Merry Crimbo, folks.

Wishing Santa a happy birthday tomorrow 🎅

UK was the world's fastest-growing G7 economy in H1 2024 (under Tories).

UK is now the world's slowest-growing G7 economy in H2 2024 (under Labour).

GDP growth has plunged, from no.1 in Q1 2024 to no.7 in Q3 2024.

Labour has wrecked confidence and wrecked the economy 💥

Rathbones, a respected London investment fund, said this week that the UK economic recession "has already begun"...

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13432602/rathbones-coombs-the-uk-recession-has-already-begun

A recent research report calculated around 80-90% of all economic gains for UK wind power are flowing abroad, almost all to China, Denmark and Germany where they design, make and ship the windmills. Wind power is a lot of hot air.

Britain's famous "productivity crisis" is entirely 100% due to low output in the public (state) sector. The public sector produces -- per employee -- a staggering -40% less than the private sector. If you respond to 100 emails a day at work, your state equivalent will only respond to 60 per day. The UK state is a huge (huge) drag on our country's growth and wealth.

Giving public staff a bouncy +3% payrise in 2025 is sending absolutely the wrong message. It is rewarding low productivity and civil management failure. When was the last time your train ran on time? How many days of your life have been spent on hold at the HMRC "help" line? Really, it should be a -3% paycut for all govt staff in 2025. Save taxpayer cash. The state must in the future do more, with less.

Gate,

That spare £268k will buy a nice V12 or V10 Lamborghini. Get one in bright yellow and live it large, mate. Don't let Labour take it and waste it 👍

..."ID Cards are nothing"...

ID cards are yet another layer of bureaucracy and red tape. Yet more state overreach. Yet more business regulation and cost. Yet another ravenous govt department that will need feeding with yet more tax. Your tax. Once it starts, it never stops. The govt department will only get bigger. ID cards today, social credit scores tomorrow, online logins the day-after. And yet more tax. Your tax. More business cost. Less business profit. And on and on it goes. ID cards are not nothing.

HTS has just kicked Iran and Russia out of Syria, so they are flavour of the month in Western capitals at the moment. Whether tiny HTS can keep Syria stable remains to be seen. HTS only has about 20-30k soldiers. Syria has 20m population, spread across 180,000 sq km.

Heading toward a social credit score (SCS).

A fair bet says there will be huge tax rises in 2024 (done), another wave about 50% as big in 2025, another wave at 25% the size in 2026, a pause in 2027, then minor 5-10% tax tweaks in 2028 and 2029 as sweeteners right before the election. Social engineering is taking place before our very eyes 👍

If Reform get a cool $100m from Musk, and vocal support from his influential X platform, then a Reform and Farage win at the next election is all but guaranteed. And will probably mark the end of the Conservative Party -- unless they merge with Reform.