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Well I just re read (skim reading mostly) the RNS's from last interim to now.
Really drives home the missed deadlines and lack of transparency when things are off target as well.
The interims last year talked about the £7m raise taking us through to commercialisation by July 2022. That's so depressing - You then go on to read one by one the updates where dates slip by a half or a quarter but this is never underlined to the investor it is often just stated as matter of fact (like telling us something we already know).
The most recent update in Jan this year quotes as looking forward to expanding trials later in the year and vaguely refererences that leading to commercials but not with any certainty and in no way giving any thought to this year.
As I read one after the other there is such a pattern that you can't hep but guarantee that the next interim will list delays and potentially worse case termination of projects.
There is of course a chance that between now and then a big positive piece of progress will be announced but as I said earlier they will not wait for the interims to announce this. If we get to the interims without prior good news I give you a 95% chance that the interim update will further destroy the SP.
I took advantage of being able to get just over 1.6p today to take a third off my holdings. Majority now in SIPP and QFI is now only a couple of percent of PF. It can't hurt me anymore (Except of course by announcing a huge commercial contract and leaving me full of regret :) )
GLA
small caps don't wait until results/AGM's to announce positive news. They announce it as soon as they have it. It is however a point in time when they sometimes are forced to admit to lack of progress etc
I don’t get why you think that?
It sounds like despite SAE having acquired Uskmouth from Simec it is now being told to us (in an around about way) that SAE don’t have consent to develop the land (we allegedly 100% own) and are now having to beg our 30% holder to give consent in return for borrowing £2m CLN’s and giving away some of the profit from the project??
No further developments on the real issue which is planning and environmental consent as well as where the money will come from.
Love to be told how I am mis-reading this.
Nearly have hit sell a few time this last few weeks as I aim to derisk my PF from stocks which hinge on a single positive/negative update.
So far the tiny SP has held me back. My gloomy outlook seems more than reflected by the gloomier price. That said, as much as things often seem priced in, experience tells me that when bad news actually lands you often realise that it wasn't priced in by as much as you thought.....
.... and this brings me to my hunch/not too bold prediction.
- Morocco - I think the next update we get will be that this has been shelved. we are a few days from the end of Q1 and the last update hoped to inform us that we had commenced trials in early Q1...
- MSC, I suspect a further delay, Anyone's guess whether it will eventually proceed
- Utah - This one has kept me interested so far as felt like the least fluff in terms of potential for the next announcement to be commercialisation rather than progress of trials etc. I have no sense of whether tomorrow we land a big contract or alternatively we never get anything done.
I suspect any sort of negative update regarding the above will be proceeded by a reminder of how good test results are and may also hint at new avenues of networking and conversations with potential clients.... All at an earlier stage of development than the above.
I am clearly in a negative mood having had pain delivered to my PF by SNG, N4P, AVACT and going further back SAE... I am starting to learn that an opposite to a well known saying is true when it comes to speculative small cap investments.... "No news is good news" does not apply. Small caps thrive on supporting their SP through positive news or spinning neutral news as positively as possible. That's why we have been told 3 times here that MSAR works when being told once would have been ample were this a FTSE listed business. I'm not saying that I no longer invest in small caps but I am saying that if the reason for investment is not supported by either the SOFP or SOPL then it needs to be supported by regular positive updates. Once you are missing all 3 of the above then I think alarm bells should be rung....
... Question is, will I listen to my own advice?
If the company is as confident and strong as has been made out then there should have been no new to offer a 25% discount. Plenty of examples where really strong growth companies are able to get a placing away at just a fraction below sp.
It’s not the placing that bother me. It’s the dishonesty and complete disconnect between what ME says and does.
This placing is 0.04p higher than the last one so not a step change and now the sp will inevitably drop back to the placing price. Really disappointing. Represents about 12% of my pf so I will take another painful hit this morning and seeing as I am no longer a long term investor (I.e. looking for the best opportunity to get out as soon as possible) then I can’t take solace in any plans they may have for this money…..
…. What I will say is that GFIN bod are equally as dishonest/disconnected from reality so that is £250k of the placing down the toilet before we start.
How does ME explain this via his get in the car analogy. So obvious that all his constant ramps via Zak Mir was to push Sp hard in order to get a placing away why else do you so aggressively push the sp so hard and so regularly.
The disconnect here is that the reason given for
Paving is delayed revenue…. Well if the revenue is only delayed and not cancelled and we are saying that without this delay there would not need to be a placing then GFIN should not be raising against equity but simply taking out short term finance to bridge the gap between when the revenue was due and when it will now arrive.
That is basic level 1 balance sheet management. So we are already being lied to.
A lot of good points here but one thing I will point out with regard to p/e measures are that they become less telling when such significant chunks of mkt cap are covered by net cash. In
This case I think (not turned on pc yet) that about 28p of SLP is cash. In my opinion it would be fairer to divide the earnings per share into (98-28=70p). Or put another way…. SLP could afford to pay out a 28p special dividend which would rightly reduce the sp to 70p and solve your p/e quandry.
Point taken though that the same factors pushing up commodity prices could in turn significantly reduce demand for the commodity.
ATB
I agree that we should see a price boost when warrants expire.
All the current 0.5p holders who have had that in their back pocket will be left with a choice to invest now at sub 0.5p or risk being on the sidelines with no safety net that the warrants previously provided.
Plenty will walk away but others will start to buy.
Naive comment incoming…..
If shorts are closing shouldn’t we see a rising share price?
We can’t blame the sp demise on “shorters being in control” but then not see even a slightly blue day when they are allegedly closing. I hope they did not close today as them closing is something I have in my diary as a catalyst for the sp to rise and if that event has now taken place and we are still sub 50p then that is even more depressing.
Can I just check…..
We were $80k in Nov
We assumed that would organically grow without any further announcements…
We announced a $720k contract over 6 months since
We have announced India (perhaps no revenue yet)
I would have expected monthly revs to be $120k + $80k + any increment of that $80k.
So $200k a month would have been disappointing as suggesting no kick on from the initial Mexico/Brazil revenue. But I seriously am struggling to square the $150k. I only hope that we have taken very little of the $720k and the $70k has largely come from Mexico and Brazil with the newer revenues still to be added.
Any different views? I am glad there is a Q&A later.
Can we really put the sp weakness down to 1 seller dripping a percent a month? What is that as a percentage of total volume traded? This has gone 130 to 30 with the main reason cited as a large seller but this large seller in that timeframe has sold 6% of the company. That is some dramatic impact….
CMW. The most you can build a stake to in the open market is 29.9%. If you trigger 30% you are obliged to make a takeover offer which right now would not be in Polygon's interest as they would have to pay over current value for the 70%. I am amazed (and delighted) they have gone to 22% and I guess they may go further but can't see them going much further.
Hall. Yesterday you declared “multiple MTA’s” as one of your “upsides” to the investment. I don’t know how a day later you are claiming that you expected none to still be in play so having 1 is a bonus?
For me I have taken a huge hit today not because we only have 1 MTA left but the way we have been told. Buried a few scrolls down the results statement. This is the first we have been told that 2 of the 3 MTAs have been stopped I can’t believe this didn’t merit an update as it is material news. Just stinks of dishonesty to be honest. N4p clearly need the sp higher (so they can raise) and didn’t dare tell the truth upfron in the current climate of sp decline. Until this point I would have argued that N4P positive was their integrity but this shows that at times of desperation even that can wane.
I have left a small amount in my SIPP as “just in case I am wrong” money but my trust in the BoD ended today.
Obviously disappointing but to say there is no slivers is a bit harsh. Secondary endpoints whilst not outstanding were encouraging…
More significantly in the same time period that this was run we had a successful p2 trial in activ2 and are still on a £30m free p3 trial there.
Thirdly this was still a good company before we even heard of covid. I believe it will continue to be so after but this time with £25m in the bank.
Going to be a down day but be careful of falling for the overreaction.
We all say how synairgen is not leaky and plays with a straight bat which I can go along with…. However before manic Mondays phase 2 results we had seen avg volumes of 1.5m daily (similar to now) and then on the Friday before we had 9m volume (interestingly with very little price change). I guess the lack of price change is why we say it isn’t leaky but 9m volume was a spike not previously seen so i tend not to think a coincidence.
I guess wrongly or rightly I am therefore looking for a random spike in volume as an indicator we will get the RNS a day later… decent volume today but nothing hugely out of the ordinary…. I do have next week as the most likely week though just maybe not Monday.