Member Info for sjsrace

Good for you Gubby, lots of new posters suddenly appeared… deramping as if it was needed. Company could do everyone a favour and tell us the current status of the whopping bank balance… I bought some more at 330

Oh yes, you are telling everyone things they dont already know, that is days old. Thanks so much. Guidance for year reduced to 14.8-15.2mt from 15-16mt.

Lucky, if it said “prior to the year-end” the I’d agree. But because it says “ prior to the year-end close” that could mean 30 days prior to ye results, which is gonna be sometime in Jan.
In any case good work getting a response at all, and hopefully you are right.

Prior to year end close means at earliest late december and more likely pre-close period which is January sometime… its a positive but they ain’t exactly setting the world alight. Ask Ryan what he is actually doing for the next 3 months…

They could have at least said our big pile of coal waiting to be loaded on to the train to the port is still smaller than the mountain of cash we have built up since June!

Good idea. I am still hoping they alogn with Anglo American and do a quarterly update tomorrow, we can dream I suppose.

RVO understood on analyst comment etc. accept the news is in the market just not the ideal way to get it there. I’m just a bit frustrated that they are able to report the bad (a la transnet) but not the good…

I do agree Rylidan, more reason for them to do a quarterly trading update up to end September. Mad they are not obligated to do this given market is so unclear on their cash position.

SR yes lets clarify that, I think they are looking at 2022 using spot rate which would result with the stock trading at 171% at 2022 FCF yield. As this level a 30% of fcf being paid as a dividend would yield 64%. As a result the case exists for the company to do a large buyback.
They are bascially just saying its cheap. First problem before they get there will be whether to buyback on the 2021 results rather than just pay it all out as a dividend.

Aro03, prob just a typo copying across from Anglo, but you never know. Would make a lot of sense for them to do a quarterly but to date they have always maintained 6 monthly.

Would make sense for them to align with Anglo

I am looking at that same note, but mine from research tree says different, interesting. As I said they are a bit bonkers not issuing a TU for period end Sep given what is going on and the cash generation over last 3 months.

Perhaps this lornings announcement was to clear the bad news first, although I dont think it was bad news as the Transnet issue was always a risk and it is clearly being managed.

I cant see that on the note I am looking at. Just says next event fy21 results in late Q1 2022.

Although why they are not issuing a quarterly TU given the market conditions is beyond me.

Liberum saying minimum dividend payout of 30% FCF would imply a dividend yield of 64%. Plus a case exists for the company to do a large buyback… what happens to share price then?

Perhaps they've stopped mining coal, or selling it to the Chinese, or we've stopped making in excess of 100%FCF and as a result we arent going to have more cash than the market cap of the company by year end.
I do think the company could make a quarterly trading update because there still seems to be a lot of confusion out there as to how this is performing... once announced the price is only going one way.

I agree the cashflows etc are still mad and price still a bargain, but the drop is because russia started pumping more gas yesterday which saw gas fall late and coal followed.

This is probably why -
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/IFFQ19/futures-prices

Because coal price pulled back yesterday

Yes, coal shouldnt be going up 10%-20% per day, totally bonkers…

Thanks Gubby thats helpful clarification