The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Lucky, if it said “prior to the year-end” the I’d agree. But because it says “ prior to the year-end close” that could mean 30 days prior to ye results, which is gonna be sometime in Jan.
In any case good work getting a response at all, and hopefully you are right.
Prior to year end close means at earliest late december and more likely pre-close period which is January sometime… its a positive but they ain’t exactly setting the world alight. Ask Ryan what he is actually doing for the next 3 months…
SR yes lets clarify that, I think they are looking at 2022 using spot rate which would result with the stock trading at 171% at 2022 FCF yield. As this level a 30% of fcf being paid as a dividend would yield 64%. As a result the case exists for the company to do a large buyback.
They are bascially just saying its cheap. First problem before they get there will be whether to buyback on the 2021 results rather than just pay it all out as a dividend.
I am looking at that same note, but mine from research tree says different, interesting. As I said they are a bit bonkers not issuing a TU for period end Sep given what is going on and the cash generation over last 3 months.
Perhaps this lornings announcement was to clear the bad news first, although I dont think it was bad news as the Transnet issue was always a risk and it is clearly being managed.
Perhaps they've stopped mining coal, or selling it to the Chinese, or we've stopped making in excess of 100%FCF and as a result we arent going to have more cash than the market cap of the company by year end.
I do think the company could make a quarterly trading update because there still seems to be a lot of confusion out there as to how this is performing... once announced the price is only going one way.
This is probably why -
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/IFFQ19/futures-prices
Agreed, Liberum view on 4 August was at spot prices ($135 back then), Thungela’s net cash position will eclipse its market cap within six months. Noting the market cap has risen since then I think coal price still means they will have more cash than market cap by y/e