Member Info for sj74

I'm going to stick my neck out and say we will see 50+ again this year (should be conservative).. another year of revenue growth, continued positive trading momentum in both businesses.. markedly reduced debt improving free Cash flow, from either or both VAT/disposal.

Tailwinds from reducing inflation and interest rates too.

Early year predictions.. most likely be wrong but there we go 😂

You all know HH is winding you all up right?! You'd have to be pretty gullible to believe people actually 'know more' 😂🤣

That's the annual results up to end of August last year.

This on proactive covers the festive period just gone.. looks poor to me, but unsure on the credence of it all as ASOS haven't actually told us yet.

Could this be the reason? Not sure how the data has been gathered when ASOS hasn't released a trading update though?!

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1086744/uk-apparel-sales-flat-over-festive-season-as-promotions-bite-1086744.html

Next posted 3.0% sales growth in Kantar’s data, with full-price up 5%. Primark gained market share despite flat growth, while M&S showed improvement, with online up 6.5% and store sales less negative. ASOS PLC underperformed, with sales down nearly 20%.

Facility is a just incase.. you wouldn't use that unless s**t hit the fan.. looks like they have already used Claremont proceeds on debt. Looks good to me. Soon see in April.

They will need quite a bit of that money on the balance sheet as H1 there is a significant cash outflow before turning cash flow positive second half. It's sensible to have that £180million. They may use £70 million outflow H1 before clawing it all back and say going £95million inflow on the second half to turn the £25 million cash flow positive. Good to have a buffer..

Exactly, and importantly we are now into the 2nd month of Q1 26.. hopefully that positive trading momentum is continuing. If they achieve a positive Q1 growth should set us up well for rest of the year :)

Thankyou 👍

Anyone got the Whey pricing futures link?

Stevmn- possibly, who knows.. so many factors to consider here.. it could hit £1 this year on VAT refund, another disposal and trading momentum being maintained.. (that will most likely take THG to Net neutral on the balance sheet) plus a bit of positive sentiment.. or there may be no VAT refund, no more disposals and it could take 2-4 years for us to get to net positive cash.. not including the whey prices...

I'm optimistic though.. my target is c£1. I feel that is achievable with the right tailwinds.

I personally hope not.. they need to focus on deleveraging which is what their stated 'capitao allocation policy' is right now. Much rather spends go on further debt reduction.

It is good news in the fact that THG beauty could potentially mop up a bit more market share though..

Soo, hang on. This year is the first year the company is to start announcing Positive FCF and people are moaning because what?

😂🤣

That's what I'm thinking/hoping they've already done. Makes sense. Will improve the FCF going forwards.. ignoring the SP movements I'm feeling pretty good about this year.. (he says) :)

£150 million is the indrawn RCF. So £180 million held in actual cash... Which is good if they have used the Claremont proceeds already! If they haven't then something has gone tits up 😅

Re reading the disposal RNS it mentions 'reducing borrowing costs' so you'd guess they have already used the Claremont funds to reduce parts of the bank loans/financings hence why it isn't showing up on the 'cash and equivalents' in the last trading update.

You'd like to think it has gone on paying off Finance costs otherwise if it has 'gone missing' by my calcs Net Debt is currently around £270 million rather than £220 million.

They did say the same would go on reducing net debt so hopefully it is no longer counted on the 'cash and equivalents' statement..

There was £279 million in cash and facilities at end of H1.

End of year this has gone up to £330 million.

So with the sale of Claremont for c£100 million shouldn't the cash and facilities be more around £380million at least especially as H2 is so much more cash generative..

Have they used alot of that cash to pay down some of the loans? It'll show on the FY results where it's gone.. unless anyone has any ideas?

Just think if they get a £60milliln VAT refund and £20-25 million FCF this year net debt could be £1-150million by end of this year.. fairly realistic I'd of thought.

SP at 37p 😂.. I like the odds.

Ingenuity has been growing at a much greater rate than remainco for years/well before the demerger.. doesn't mean it wasn't the right thing. They are still hugely loss making.. if ingenuity was still part of remainco CAPEX would be so much higher and there would be no FCF this year..

Deleveraging wouldn't be happening and it would still be acting as a huge ball and chain.