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Agree Doc83. The dilution is likely going to be savage to raise £30m. You'd think any non retail investors other than TFG are going to want a big, big discount to current share price range.

Pmjh, you'd think an equity raise would only be for a ph2, but a licencing deal could be for both.

Doc. D . That type of deal would be good for investors in one sense (limiting up front dilution), but given all other uses for SNG001 apparently have limited value right now (evidenced by a lack of recent interest), then how would TFG get their money back with BP taking most of profits from the ventalator trials. A punitive licencing deal whilst clearly better than bankruptcy would limit the long term value of synairgen as a business (via back ended dilution). I'm fascinated to see how this pans out given RM said judge me in 6 to 8 weeks time. Not the comment you'd make if you were about to do a 4 to 1 raise.

Without that specific comment I would have thought existing investors are going to take a hit unless they participate to an extent they're not diluted in an normal equity raise. A successful Ph2 would then create an opportunity for investors to exit or perhaps the company to be sold (TFG might want that, but who knows). Curious to understand how a phase 3 would be funded unless money is raised now for both?!

If they are exempt from making an offer and there are no other institutions interested what will be the outcome? Can you explain fruits please.

Re. TFG. "They get an exception rubber stamped for them to own above 30%, without triggering a bid, and all of a sudden they own 80%+ of the company".

Is that definitely right cl2201? Can you think of other instances on aim where this happened?

TFG are naturally going to set (accept) the price low so they can own a large chunk of the company for not much. Eek

Depends on how much they need to raise mani. Could we see sub 1 gbx?

Thanks for the update doc & wigster. Any mention on the amount needed for the trial?

TP. Re. Your comment on debt. I can't even see the most opportunist debt fund lending. The one investor I could see doing it would be TFG and only then with a debt to equity swap. Again, upon a successful trial outcome, this woukd be another brutal form of dilution assuming the clause was exercised.

I'm sure TFG will participate. Won't they be limited to 29.999% otherwise they'd trigger the requirement to make a offer?

As such I think the dilution could be brutal to get other non retail investors to buy in. Will the offer basically be priced for this to go bust. I'm thinking HE1 raise 20th December 2023 style. If that happens will be brutal, but an opportunity for those currently sitting on the side lines.

TP, you mention "the significant update that investors were hoping for hasn’t happened today". I think you mean the next the significant update investors are all dreading. The reality is a huge dilution of some sort is on its way.

Will be interested to read any commentary from those that attended the AGM today.

All very good points Mani!

Great post Doc.D! Just says it all and reposting in full:

"You're doing this deliberately Fruits - but goodness knows why. If they don't have the cash - and they've said they don't - they have to find the cash. That's what they're still trying to do. That's why the AGM is delayed because they know they will be shredded if they invite shareholders in with nothing to show for the last 2 years of bluster. They're not waiting for a grant or an invite onto a platform trial or any of the other nonsense you continue to postulate. They're scratching around for £5m or £10m to get the MV underway and keep the lights on until it delivers. However they do this will inevitably result in a huge loss of current equity or the same dilution through a huge percentage of future sales.

If they hold an AGM without a positive RNS announcing the trial is about to start there will be motions to cut staff and salaries and for the CEO to be removed. You might still have faith in good old Dicky but nobody else does. The founders must be looking at him slant-eyed as he wanders the silent corridors , wondering how he managed to fu.ck it all up so badly".

Evening all, it would be interesting to know the difference in cost between the ph2 multi viral trials they had planned and the ventalator trial now proposed, and what happened to those funds. I would have thought the latter would have cost less - not the other way around. What happened to the cash pile?

The company's now some what spurious claim they could fund a ph2 trial without dilution gave us false hope and the lack of communication over the past x months is completely unforgivable. The fact RM is taking such a huge salary is quite remarkable. He's turned out to be a bit of a non communicative toad and inhindsight should have been sacked after Sprinter. The chairman should be embarrassed.

As many have pointed out even if they do raise funds it's going to be massively dilutive. For transparency I sold out once I had time to process the last update.

Maybe our largest shareholder will fund the trial with massive dilution to other shareholders, but that is super high risk given what is now proposed. Will they really double down once again? I don't see debt as an option unless the lender really was pursuing a loan to own strategy, which quite frankly would be highly improbable.

If funding materialises, the trial sounds like it could be a success and once the dilution is out the way I might take another stab at this. Sadly, unless some miraculous platform trial emerges I think the share price has a lot, lot further to fall.

All the best with your investing endeavours.

Good luck all.

Cheers Doc D. All the best.

Thanks Doc D. You sticking around to the end or selling out?

HI Doc D, in your opinion what would be the probability of success for the proposed new trial (which probably should have been run 6 months after sprinter failed right?)?

Fruits, what do you think TFG's average price is?

I Agree with Doc83. An estimate of their average price was discussed and tracked regularly as TR1s were announced. The estimate ended up being something like 90 to 100 gbx. Maybe if they were really canny a bit less, like 80 gbx. Hard to see how they could have got it much lower unless they've now written down their investment - which I doubt. They probably have an internal valuation, which is much higher than the current share price.

Mani, or perhaps in dispute about the massive pay cut RM is about to take, or maybe his redundancy package. lol.

Doc. D. It's my understanding obesity, Diabetes, general ill health and access to good healthcare is a major problem in China.

Fruits, you have to be realistic. It isn't inevitable that SNG001 will eventually get approved. Synairgen could bodge the next set of trials and the trialing could be kicked into the long grass for good. They messed up Sprinter. It could happen again, albeit given the scale and the nature of the trials - less likely.

GLA