Member Info for Size82

Sure Ghia, but Polygon ain't gonna facilitate an off market sale to big pharma or pe for a loss so most retail PI's know where they stand.

It would be an interesting dilemma if an offer was in the 150 to 200 gbx range. Would give the BoD a major dilemma given the Sprinter raise sp.
GLA

Ghia, from my perspective its useful to keep a tab on what their average to have comfort my own average is lower. I'll be in the black if they are in the event of a takeover. Of course this might not work out if the IP rights are being sold off for peanuts having failed trials which have yet to be conducted. I'd have thought Tommy and Mani might suggest that same.

If you do have an alternative scenario / theory on Polygon's intention please do spell it out.

IMO, Polygon will be looking to max out on value and to do so first means getting a product into market. Alot of value will be left on the table if Synairgen is sold off during a phase III. Higher discount rate, less certainty on CF etc. etc.
GLA

That's the concern Doc83. Real balancing act.

Same Doc83

Polygon will be looking to maximise value and their return. They could end up with a legendary return. IMO, this will mean seeing it through to commercialisation via another ph3 trial. If a PT doesn't materialise (and the window is closing for this winter anyway) then it would be a balancing act between a dilutive raise to fund a ph3 covid trial to confirm data unveiled at the ATS Versus a licencing deal with BP. Lets be honest, the low sp remains a barrier to the former at this point in time. The synairgen team are well incentivised to make the correct call aligned with shareholders.

A licencing deal with BP for a ph3 copd trial could also materialise / bail out the current low sp. This might then enable a fund raise for ph3 Covid (hospital setting) which is less dilutive.

Any way still time to get on a PT for this winter so fingers crossed and good luck all.

P value is 0.07. To be statistically significant it would need to be =<0.05.
However, with such a small sample 0.07 is exceptionally close to being significant. My take any way....

Thanks for sharing Tommy

I agree Ghia. I would guess its probably because Synairgen have to exhaust the PT route. I'd like to think they are having discusions with BP on Covid behind the scenes. However, if they dont exhaust the PT route and unnecessarily give away too much value it would be doing the share holders a disservice (including themselves). As Tommy states it looks like STRIVE will be starting later this year. Looks like Great White hope to maximise value for shareholders if we can get on it.. .. or something similar if exists.
GLA

Agreed, Covid isn't going anywhere which is why there is a big campaign right now for people to get their covid boosters and flu vaccines quickly.

Covid like flu might have years where less potent strains emerge, but it looks like it's here to stay.
The possibility of a really nasty strain emerging is why the pandemic preparedness market for covid treatment has the potential to be so so lucrative. I note it was listed in the half year update.

SNG001's market potential is collosal. It seems to me the challange is making sure only patients that really need the drug are added to trials. This is where improved technology is going to help going forwards. If a PT doesn't happen for whatever reason this winter then I have no doubt that one of the big pharmaceuticals will enter into a funding and licencing deal for a refined phase 3. Remembering that the vaccines don't stop everyone from getting extremely ill and there are some who sadly can't be vaccinated due to underlying health conditions.
GlA

What cash problem. Bit if a misleading title there patagucci.

£18m cash balance as of end of June '22. To be fair that could last much longer than Q4 2023.

Quickest way for this company to go bust or lose control would be to raise debt. A highly dilutive equity raise would be preferable IF it came to that. I don't think it will. I am Intrigued to see what the cash balance is looking like though.
GLA

Nothing guaranteed IMO. Recruitment can take months of planning ahead. At the end of the process Synairgen dont have to hire. Could NIH have given Synairgen the nod informally. I doubt it. If a licencing deal / JV is in place with BP for COPD then it would have to have been announced.

Could be wrong, but I'd have thought this is just good, diligent planning in anticipation we're on a trial later this year. GLA

Re. The long covid results. Is it likely Synairgen will be able to study the sub category that suffered the most from covid and who benefited the most from SNG001 . It would be really interesting to see how that third of patients recovered in terms of not having LC symptoms versus those in placebo who suffered the worst respiratory problems and the LC effects they now suffer.

I agree Docdaneeka. The only plausible reason why they haven't been released is that there isn't a phase 3 trial in place yet to pursue further analysis. This looks like the could change this autumn.

If further research funded by the USA govt. was DEAD as Kevin suggests then iMO they'd have released the Activ 2 data by now and said good luck Synairgen and on your way.

I also doubt they'd be released until there is a trial in place to carry them forward. Obviously enough analysis was undertaken to state SNG001 had passed to go through to phase 3.

US are under no obligation to release the data until it suits them.

That's because those results need verifying by another trial and that is out of our hands. In my opinion only very good Activ 2 results, a jv licencing deal with BP for copd phase 3 trial or PT phase 3 trial (inpatient) for covid will boost the sp. In my opinion the latter will be the fastest route to market. GlA

You obviously didn't understand the deepdive of the Sprinter results then. Efficacy of 70% in reduction to progression to severe illness / death replicated on a bigger scale would get an full authorisation! This was the standout news of the year.

Even better Mani

I'm expecting RM to provide an update on Activ 2 data timings with the financials on the 30.09.2022.

It would be interesting to look at fatigue by looking at those of a working age and those that have been signed off work vs those that hadn't. It might even be worth assessing those that haven't gone back full time.