Member Info for Size82

Covid will be phase 4

I don't disagree with having options Mani. Only prudent, but to abandon covid would be nuts. In any case I doubt they have as it would be within the multi virus strategy (I'd hope) and surely wouldn't be ph2!

Mani, if a multi virus strategy is now the sole strategy via Universal then the ceo and chairman need to be sacked. The quickest route to authorisation is ph4 for covid, clearly via STRIVE. If I was a betting man I'd say we'll be agent number 3. Given the time frames of just 4 months for Abatecept it doesn't feel like the NIH feel Covid is going anywhere.
GLA

Thanks for sharing Doc.D. This seems like a rational decision from the NIH given Abatecept was on the Activ-1 programme. I think we should be looking at this as a positive as STRIVE is properly up and running. Hopefully we're up next. It will be intetesting to see if there are any snippets of info on STRIVE in Thursday's update. GLA

The wait continues.....

Nicely put doc d. Of next week I'm hoping the cash balance has been prudently managed and there is some indication a PT is pending and licence agreement negotiations with BP are still live. I don't have high expectations. Might see a Polygon TR-1 before then though.

Jonnyboy33, I'm not so sure. Lower down there is a link which takes you through to all the historic trials. Maybe clutching at straws here sadly. However, if we are properly being considered for STRiVE then surely the team are aware. I just don't think you can draw any conclusions from the latest slides.

Intetesting point Doc. Maybe they were buying again last week. If you're right though and they have formally been made insider's they could provide valuable input into any commercial discussions. However, if they had wouldn't it have been announced that they have a seat on the board etc.?

Doc83, here are some of my musings. First I'm guessing they've announced the release date of results as it is early and out of sink with the historic annual timetable (end of May). Perhaps they are doing this as they want to hold the AGM a month early for some reason yet to be revealed! Worst case as they need to do it for a major cash raise for a new trial, but I doubt that scenario (unless God forbid we've been rejected for STRIVE and no one wants to JV).

The most plausible in my mind is because they can combine the results with a much needed strategy / operations update. No doubt they've been getting lots of grief over the lack of communications if the large chunk of negativity / impatience on this board is representative of wider shareholders frustrations. However, why not just give a meaningful strategy update.

Another option could be that it will make it easier to undertake a small raise. For example, if its announced we're on STRIVE and the sp jumps they might take the opportunity to raise a bit of a cash buffer. Under that scenario would it help to have already released the results for transparency? Maybe, but others might have a better grasp of AIM equity offerings norms / standards. Providing dilution wasn't too bad I wouldn't mind this if it provided stability and a run way to see out a long NIH funded platform trial.

Either way I sense how we are going to get funded (if at all) is going to be revealed in the next month or two. GLA

Given Polygon view success as 20 quid a share, I'd have thought Synairgen's BoD convinced Polygon that the post sprinter read out analysis warranted inclusion on a PT, and that it was highly likely they get on one - which still might happen given STRIVE is now ramping up. Failing that they'd be able fund a trial via a JV with BP as a fall back position. Exit after trial result unless someone made an attractive enough offer prior to trial results (unlikely IMO).

Discount they get from averaging down compensates for time lost from getting SNG001 to market.

Good share that Spacman. Many thanks

Hi Aether, what's the source of the pump. Can you provide evidence?

Doc83, maybe. However, if it was priced to account for more of the real risk it should not have lost 90% + value on the results IMHO. I think there was a general view respiratory phase 3 trials had a historic probability of success which was high, maybe even as high as 80%. It felt like this was priced in given the base case broker notes were around 10 quid a share on success. In reality, given the number of international trial sites, widely improving soc, changing variants and size of the trial (the December peer review article states the trial wasn't powered to achieve secondary end point success) I'd say the risk of failure was much much higher (as turned out to be the case) then the price pre sprinter read out suggested. Just my thoughts...

Yes Aether

It seems pretty clear, given the extent of the drop post readout, that the sp was mispriced / over inflated relative to the risks prior the Sprinter results. As such I don't think it will get anything near £2 a share. I'd be happy if it got back to 40 to 50 gbx. The market will be warry and valuations have come off alot in a more normalised interest rate environment. Let's hope we get on STRIVE as a starter. You think the next candidate should be announced sooner rather than later. GLA

Ghia, if we're on a fully funded platform trial we would not need dilution via a fund raise to complete the trial and commercialise, subject to the cash balance being enough to keep the lights on until SNG001 is monetised. The general consensus is that we have enough cash for a good few years so while any thing is possible, dilution is not inevitable. We will find out soon enough how the cash balance is looking. Even if we were to raise some additional cash to keep the lights on during a platform trial it is unlikely to have that much of a dilutive effect, assuming the placing was undertaken on a significantly higher sp than where it currently sits. As you allude to below this would likely happen should Synairgen be announced as a STRIVE candidate.

If Synairgen then wanted to raise funds for other trials while on a platform trial this is another matter. However, I'd strongly argue that it would be a capital allocation mistake and the company needs to get in a position where it can self fund / self finance research its self at the earliest possible point in time.
GLA

Fingers crossed Doc83. Let's hope RM can get us on one to at least confirm the ATS presented deepdive sprinter results for covid. Govt. Sponsored funding for anything else would be a bonus.

I'm assuming the communication blackout is because STRIVE is simply taking time, much more time than anticipated. On the flip side you'd think it would be super easy to design a ph4 trial for covid (worst hospitalised patients). This way forward contrasts with talk of a multivirus trial though so the picture is not clear.
GLA

We won't be diluted if we get on STRIVE or another PT. This is key. Dilution is not envitable while these options remain.

Fruits, I didnt think they'd actually hired the staff, rather they'd sign off to start a recruitment process in anticipation they are needed in the future. Finding suitable candidates and interviewing can take several months then anyone handing in their notice probably has 3 month notice period. It feels like something is bubbling away in the background state side, but no guarantee.

On another note. The last formal statement on trial strategy was in the interim results published end September 2022. Six months has passed without formal communication from the CEO (I discount linkedin nonsense). Not a great look.

Doc83, the only way we could improve on that is if we get a fully funded platform, retain full control and pass a ph4 covid trial with flying colours. Still a possibility.....we hope. Good luck all!