Member Info for Simms45

Looking very strong to land well above 1p today. Into the last few weeks but easily a multi billion company by 2027 on production start. Very exciting times!

Its once in a lifetime to catch a potential major gold player in Ethiopia and Saudi from a junior miner. Certainly at point of production Kefi will be £1.5bn - £2.5bn. gla

So many people are probably are not loaded up ready for the next phase in the development of La India that they hope a little de ramping might get them in a little lower. Anything below 1p is a bargain as we are still less than the $100m Kefi has already invested into La India over last 10 years. All news in last 8 weeks have all focused on closure and nothing has said anything else and that includes banks and the EG. There is pressure on all sides to get this done. Anything under 1.5p will be seen as a bargain when the financing is signed. i do not have exact date but it is coming.

One bit of possibly good news i found is that on the 30th June 2025 China announced "The standard “GB 18351-2025: Ethanol Blended Gasoline for Vehicles” defining E10 (8-12% v/v ethanol) gasoline grades. It becomes mandatory in standard terms from 1 July 2026. This is likely one of the tailwinds for CNEL as from around mid 2022 China seemed to row back on E10 and it was 1.8% blend so well down. We will have to wait and see. As to your question i do not know all the ins and outs but they have increased orders so likely borrowing to pay in advance for fabrication but they also have had several years now of net outflows of cash. It has always mystified me and made me uncomfortable that we appear to not get money in advance from clients and that came back to bite with quite a lot of bad debts last 3 years. Hopefully orders start to ramp up as this could have triggered a lot of pent up demand now suppliers know the government is serious about E10 and will need to be ready in 2026.

I agree things are getting incredibly exciting. Looking forward to some Dupax results that should be due next week or so.

Should have been over 1p a long time ago but fortunate for investors to grab a bargain and wait for sign off. Market is predicting a delay but key is this will get signed off and if it does get signed around end of September there will be hige re-rate as we know valuation in 2028 should be way over $2bn and its just a matter of time to close the gap. I would like to see 1.5p pre signing and 3-5p within a month of signing. With Saudi updates and positive wind is realistic. Could ho way higher as not many 10-20x ops in the market and with a gold miner as long as you have full funding to launch there is a lot less risk, just execution of the development but this plant is about as standard as it comes. Gla and hopefully 1p is behind us end of today!

But with any reimbursement owed by TKGM to Kefi you can borrow against this and use as collateral today just as you can borrow against the projected $300m net cashflow beneficial to Kefi in 2028 a lot sooner. Someone will advance you money. Harry has a huge number of ways to introduce cash into Kefi after this is all signed. Not least Harry has to get to 1.5p, 2.5p and 3.5p for his bonus so his focus must be closing now and then looking at alternatives. Without repeating myself too many times Harry confirmed in Q&A Kefi overheads fall 75% as all overheads transferred to TKGM. Our running costs will be insignificant and all focus can move to maximising Saudi. Maybe there was a clause to allow Kefi to buy some of our stake back.

The key is that post finance complete this month we are debt free but will have $300m+ cash heading our way post 2027 full year for TK. Should Kefi need a little play money or decide to pay out a special dividend they could probably borrow £25-£100m for any eventualities in the meantime. Everything changes once we are OTL. Harry will be closely watching his bonus as he needs to not only sign the credit approvals and but ensure the share price is above 1.5p. So far we have the debt financing done but we are not at 1.5p. Harry will not want to lower the chances of him cashing out his christmas bonus of £400k. Second bonus he needs to get shareprice to 2.5p for his additional £400k and debt disbursements done and finally he will get £400k on first pour and 3.5p. All in all he needs to focus on closing the deal this month and he will basically get £1.2m cash over next few years quite comfortably and we will be 3.5p by Christmas or sooner. Hopefully with some averaging down for investors most will be in profit by this point. Hoping Manu was actually a genius and loading up at .5 and make some money back. gla

Looking very positive on the upside today. Not much more i think and we will put .9 in rearview mirror. Certainly looking very promising after Beavercreek update explaining Harry was in process of closing the deal and unable for him to attend. Last RNS said September and with debt component wrapped up it looks very promising. Just to re-iterate the obvious we have 8 working days left of September and we are told everything is on track. Possibly one of the biggest AIM risers potentially over next 2-3 years. £1bn-£2bn market cap is not unlikely off the back of full years gold production in 2027 that puts Kefi on a 25x from today. This is simply based on Tulu Kapi achieving 160k ounces in 2027/2028 and at current gold price delivers $300m free cash flow to Kefi shareholders. Most expect gold to rise far higher. We have zero debt so plenty of room to borrow if need be and once completed Kefi overheads will fall 75% as subsidiary will be fully funded by financing and can then focus on our 15% stake in Saudi with a project possibly worth $2bn based on comparable miners in the area and our 15% with Artar (huge Saudi family) would be worth another $300m and a lot more once we get into production. Jibal Qutman and Hawiah will provide big updates in coming months, presumably once financing is complete this month. Cant see a 5x not possible prior to christmas as we are ridiculously undervalued. We have over $100m already injected into Tulu Kapi as our equity and we are still worth less less? Ridiculous beyond imagination. Big re-rates will happen as Saudi updates come in and as we get closer to full production. If your sitting on the fence you have not long to decide if your going to dip your toe and join the ride of your life !

Running NPV and a postive scenario of 145k ounzes for La India and 80k for Runruno NPV at $3700 gold and 8% Discount you come out at $3.4bn and $4.23bn at 5% discount. Plenty of upside with a decent wind from today lowly state and if it comes together a decent 10x on the cards in 2-3 years.

Harry has raised all finance required for bank close and sign off. He would obviously wait until post financial close when all news in public domain before any placing. Remember after financial close our costs, according to Kefi, will fall 75% as TKGM picks up all costs and presumably pays Kefi something for our time. No news is great news. Looking forward to next stage and the BIG re-rate.

Wake me up when we get back to 2.5p, the the last previous high. All very well getting back to 1p and put that in the rearview mirror but 2.5p was the last landing point pre financial close. Lets see how the next 11 days goes but should be pretty fast moving. Maybe 1-2p by end of week?

Ive been through a dozen false dawns. Difference this time is we have official sign off of debt component. This is the main chunk of money and Harry has on RNS said we have excess interest in the Ethiopian bonds from international companies who want to repatriate cash abroad. For decades companies have not been out to get cash out of the country. Kefi has been instrumental to enable that. This is happening, just never sure when but all i care is we get this done as much as possible this month. Anyone spotting Harry swaggering around Mayfair with his Champers in hand let us know :)

Great summary Drewton. 11 working days left of September and we are told everything is on track. Possibly one of the biggest AIM risers potentially over next 2-3 years. £1bn-£2bn market cap is not unlikely off the back of full years gold production in 2027 that puts Kefi on a 25x from today. This is simply based on Tulu Kapi achieving 160k ounces in 2027/2028 and at current gold price delivers $300m free cash flow to Kefi shareholders. Most expect gold to rise far higher. We have zero debt and once completed Kefi overheads will fall 75% as subsidiary will be fully funded by financing and can then focus on our 15% stake in Saudi with a project possibly worth $2bn based on comparable miners in the area and our 15% with Artar (huge Saudi family) would be worth another $300m and a lot more once we get into production. Jibal Qutman and Hawiah will provide big updates in coming months, presumably once financing is complete this month. Cant see a 5x not possible prior to christmas as we are ridiculously undervalued. We have over $100m already injected into project as our equity and still worth less. Ridiculous beyond imagination. Big re-rates will happen as Saudi updates come in and as we get closer to full production. If your sitting on the fence you have T-11 days to decide if your taking a moderate risk or on the side on Manu and calling his bluff. Personally as EG are stake holders, major global development banks have signed off debt and buildings and road visibly built that might not be so smart but respect all different views and dyor. Gla

A key marker i watch for is daily high value trades after hours. These are generally book building exercises going on throughout the day with the aim of robbing pis of their shares and taking into deeper pockets without alerting the market. If we can see around £100k+ daily afterhour trades it is likely a bigger fish building a position. Hopefully now we are in the last few weeks and we should be getting some update shortly if Kefi are in fact convening in London to sign of this debt and then the equity injection. Personally i am focusing on the bank signing the docs as this is the first stage with everyone else piling in behind. if we get that we will be off to the races.

Hoover is set to Max after £1m buys afterhours. Looking forward to rest of week and if we can test towards 20p!

Or to put it another way someone got their hoover out with plenty of chunky buys. Lets hope they keep it going for next few weeks and push on towards 20p that seems pretty nailed on if this continues.

Smart buy and wish i had odd £281k to buy some more. Should help smash .8 and onwards to .9. Shares are getting hardee to get hold of and if news lands we will start the re-rate to at least 2.5p and then start to build up to a proper valuation of up to $2bn once we are in full production. gla

FCF is ballooning as gold rises. Over $350m and rising to start kicking in less than 10 months. I suspect 20p is not very far as frankly its embarassing how undervalued we are based on these metrics. So far we are ahead of schedule with 95% of the groundworks completed. Thats impressive and no reason to think plant cant get up and commissioning middle of next year. Hold those shares if you can as $2bn market cap in around 2 years now seems easily achievable. Fla

Good to see another 10m buy after hours, adding to a growing number of large trades recently. Looking very strong for the rest of this week as smart investors pile in robbing pis who do not have the stomach for a possible 10x over the coming years.