Member Info for Simms45

Flurry of buys into the close setting us up for a great friday and maybe update next week. When you look at Calibre almost tripling in value since its recent low Condor is significantly lagging as we have only doubled. We could end up a nice little fish but Condor needs to keep pace with the market as i see that Condor has lost value compared to its peers so there is a lot of catching up to do!

Whats the chances of an update after bank holiday? Companies who have already submitted bids must be racing to get it binding so i think the first offer could drop at anytime going forward. I think friday close we end highest this week as everything is falling into place.

A long long way to go. In hindsight with these sort of companies its better to wait and invest as i am surprised Kefi is still only just over 1p. could have saved my self a few years of pain and just invest when it looks a reality. I guess today is not signed definitive agreements or signed of credit for debt but we have not got much longer to wait. I think tomorrow and next week once reality hits we are easily looking at a $200m market cap company after our $95m sweat equity is realised and then Saudi is going to add multiple $100ms especially if Harry gets the go ahead for the Saudi listing. This is a great derisk for Kefi as EG, UK ambasssador and Australian ambassador all goving the nods so unlikely now EG are going to hold things up. Nice way to end week and Harry said he would deliver May and he has done it with flying colours. Big long climb commences.

We now await definitive agreements to be signed in May and government finalising some details for project to go to final credit. Should be a big May when we get those details. I expect 2-3x by early June once everything is nailed down 100%. Will continue to invest as progress moves forwards.

Got to hand it to Harry he has his every self imposed deadline for last 9 months so that June 2023 is now looking very likely. Key this is we now have $95m of sweat equity into the closure of this project so we are guaranteed on signing to add $100m to assets. Its simply crazy today we are worth only £42m. This is a tiny market cap, it almost beggars belief. We should now run up up to 2.5p towards June sign off as this is clearly happening if you have EG, Australia and UK ministers all involved in signing. This is a project that was only ever going to happen when the governments have the nod. We have it and the rest is just a enjoyable ride towards 3p and then onwards as Saudi is the elephant in the room that will take Kefi it 10x territory on todays key news. I would be surprised if we do not now push to much much higher at end of week. Certainly 1.5 seems very low given just how undervalued we are.

Will all change when we get a binding offer or an update on number of non binding offers. I sense at current market cap there will no takeover offers as it will be too low but if China makes an offer then this should raise price of Condor so that it gets into the right place for a paper and cash offer from one of thr TSX companies but we certainly need a good push to 40p+ to speed up the sale process as bidders keep cards close. In meantime pressure on First Republic means presumably going bust as depositors have all exited leaving nothing behind. The problem depositors face is that all banks are inter connected so once one banks goes others closely connected come under pressure and the depositors keep on running. Gold is going to continue rising and will provide a good wind for Condor to take flight.

I guess the day traders have until the 25th of May to extract the girations until the company goes private and probably last time you might see your capital and hope that dividend will be paid. Certainly the board have planned this all along knowing that a delist would crash the share and give the 82% shareholder time to get back the other 18% for very little once it is delisted and can dilute pis to 0.

Always good for investors to exit and leave something in for the next investor as we await the first binding offering from the 4 non binders so far. The share price does have bearing on the final outcome as buyers of the asset will be aware of the market cap of the company and weighing up approach. I am confident we will reach 40p in the coming weeks as i sense it might trigger a takeover offer around 65p that is probably not a million miles away from JM nod territory but who knows as the Chinese could be very close to tabling a decent offer for the asset as they came with a full team around a month ago so they should be moving to binding offer shortly.

Would be interested to know if the share price falls by the equivalent amount on thursday as i once chased a few high yielders and found the drop in share price and bid offer spread was more than the actual dividend and you then need to hold that share for sometime to hope the share rises back which is fine if the company is ticking all the right boxes. The issue with some property reits is this is a sector that is going to continue declining as as interest rates rises will lead to falls in commercial and residential property so i just hope that investment works out. however property is a lot less risky than many businesses as at least they have tradeable assets so good luck.

I have been here before and the issue i spot is they are not moving to another exchange but taking this golden goose into the dark recesses of offshore. i have not read that directors plan to protect the 12% of pis. It is possible that after delisting the board with 82% will issue shares at a low shareprice and dilute pis into oblivion and then do a share buy back for the rest. It all hangs on the board but as no one is present in the UK i doubt they have much care for pis. If the company cannot pay the few £100k a year managing a AIM listing you wonder if they want any shareholders apart from themselves. The way in which they annouced this was shocking. Looks like a highly profitable entity and 11p dividend at todays share price would be great but once private they might pull that while they remove pis from the share register. Love to be wrong but this could border on criminal given the 90% fall as pis head to get out and probably allow the 82% shareholder or their 3rd parties to build their holding to get to 100%. If board were honest they would offer a buy back at market value to anyone who wants to sell. They have not and look to be abusing their power by pulling the plug.

Given Ethiopia just had a serious civil war and Kefi shareprice went sideways for years and we have come out of it i sense shareprice already prices in TK not happening so cant really see we can go any lower. Civil unrest in this part of the world is normal as every North African country has experiences it so i guess it was Sudan’s turn. Key this week is the umbrella agreement and updates and once we get them i suspect the mood will turn rather positive.

Could even be a bidder taking as much stock quietly in the market before they make an offer. Issue today is we are still too cheap for a takeover to even be considered so the sooner we push to 40p+ the sooner we might get an offer for the company that would suit PIs more than an asset sale as it provides clarity although MC has intimated all monies would be paid out and company wound down so his not planning to use the funds on another project. Certainly feels like some news will bubble up anytime soon.

I always have in the back of my mind "cut your losses and let your profits ride" as so often investors take profits far too early when there is little to hold it back but then keep hold of the losses when the company is clearly struggling on all fronts just hoping not to crystalise a loss only for the losses to continue and the share to go lower. I cant say i live by this as with good analysis you hope you can find the companies that will stand the test of time and work through the issues. Condor has always been one of those where the market is simply wrong about its valuation and hence the sale to create value. Condor was always worth a multiple of the share price based on the assets but the investor base was placing a very high price on political risk. With Condor we have a $400m+ valuation as a bare bare minimum and someone will buy it, presumably well north of the market cap today as TSX companies and China all know the real deal. You can feel pretty confident that with 4 offers and 1 now working with an investment bank they are not doing it for fun and they know the strike price JM will accept. It is simply a matter of time and i certainly hope that long term investors will see that their initial review of Condor were correct, albeit taken a bit longer than envisaged to come to fruition. There does feel that there is a proper momentum buyer in the background as whatever is sold is hoovered up and we are rising steadily towards 40p and then i suspect news will come of a binding offer or further non binding offers but 4 is an incredibly good number and you can imagine the likely parties interested and how they are waiting for who will throw their first offer into the mix to start this auction off.

If we push to 40p then a 65-75p paper and cash offer might strike a chord from TSX listed companies as easily sellable to their own shareholders as its a bargain on paper. However China will probably not let this golden goose slip for beer money so will make a counter offer in cash as China both wants to ship gold to China and create political influence in Nic so this is heavily strategic on doorstep of US. I think as long as we get a bid soon we will get competitive bids and i suspect they are closing in as in last update at least 1 of the bidders has an investment bank, that is normally required for takeovers as an asset sale might not. If we can reach 40p+ we might well find out. Gla

Anywat might as well join the MMs and boot fill sub .9. Nice day for it given the week ahead :)

Final unbrella agreement to be signed this week if Harry delivers and the previous ministry of mines Tukele was removed from office for corruption. Harry in the driving seat with new mom minister. All coming together and fall is probably MMs using a light volume day to scoop up stock for later this week to sell on at big profit.

There is still probable 100% upside but 50% is almost nailed on over next few months. 40p is long overdue but looks like this week we should reach that and i suspect we might take a nice offer from some companies who want to try an mix of paper and cash and trump the chinese. 75p sound about right :)

Fantastics news. Clears the desk for the EG now to resolve TK matters and give EG a good news story creating 1000s of jobs and largest single export company in Ethiopia. Onwards snd upwards.

While its not unusual for a junior miner to do all the heavy lifting and prepare a mine for a big gold miner to run with our issue has always been the disconnect between our NAV that is over $400m, not including all the upside, and the trivial market cap of the company that is barely 1/6th of this valuation. When the disconnect is so big i think raising equity for financing would be heavy on pis and the bods mandate is to maximise shareholder value. Today the value is created by selling to one of the 4 companies who have made offers and probably more. Gold miners know the real value of this asset as they can extract billions of profit for decades to come. The price of the mine in a a very pro mining country is huge for a miner willing to play ball with Ortega. Of course with gold now at $2000 and not $1600 that the $400m valuation is created we can add 50% to the valuation. If shareholders can sell asset for $150m+ then while it is not the billions of profit it is considerably more than we have been in the past. Sadly pis and UK investors do not have appeal for gold mining in Nicaragua as if they did i am sure we would be building a mine if our market cap was $200-$300m and not $30-70m recently. What can board do if the market does not recognise an assets value so this is the best way today of maximising shareholder value. Maybe tomorrow we find a JV and keep 60% of the equity and go into production and then we can look forward to billions of profit.

Lets hope those EG approvals come early May and we get RNS shortly afterwards on June date. The earlier Harry can present the final timeline gives the share price more time to move to 2.4p to trigger warrants and then once done we should see a big movement north as that completely derisks all financing and gives anple firepower to Saudi. I am sure our partner Artan is chomping at the bit and we ideally need to keep our 30%. To do that Harry has to be as early as possible with dates with timeline, even if June/July. If he can make May the key month for news he will leave himself in a good place to let the market catch up with the massive 10x upside over next few years or less.