Member Info for Simms45

Certainly some boot filling going on, maybe someone with an ear to the ground as it must be impossible for locals to not see or hear what is going on. Good to see a strong start to the week and lets hope we keep up the pace and buyers come back tomorrow to push us higher.

Nice benben. 100% up is a nice place to be. Nothing wrong with passing the baton to the next investor as we head to the finish line.

We are way behind Calibre relatively and therefore this might be the gap closing leading up to binding bids. 34p was last high so once we clear that we should be able to push towards 40p and hopefully hold that price as chances are we hear something positive in next 2-3 weeks. The Nicaraguan government will also be courting the Chinese so i suspect the Chinese are in pole position but that is not to say we do not get a JV or all share offer from a TSX listed company. Will be interesting to find out soon.

Hopefully we break 34p this time as we should get a binding offer in the coming weeks if MC was correct about his tweet last month and completed by summer.

latest webinar from harry pointed out he is in ethiopia meeting important people pushing finance to the finish line. hopefully we are close and what needs unblocking gets resolved. would like to see an rns confirming we are good to go this week. https://*********************/media/kefi-gold-and-copper-presents-at-the-proactive-one2one-investor-forum-30th-may-2023

Everyone is entitled to share their opinion whether pessimistic or optimistic and much inbetween. No one here has a clue until we get an RNS. I have a positive view of Eqtecs technology and prospects, albeit it is taking a lot longer than envisaged and so many external factors have impacted the momentum. I welcome all views as opposed to just silence those i do not agree with. If your invested you only do so on basis that you think future prospects are positive. I can only imagine the pessimistic comments are those who are shorting the stock and i have to applaud anyone who has over last 18 months as they will have been right to do so.

If you honestly think MC would spend millions for a mill just to write an RNS i think you are clearly deluded in this case. If you believe it was just about ramping then surely you could come up with better ways to achieve that with the budget. Given we have bought a mill and this is a longe lead item it should help the sales process as it shortens the mine build.

The key point that many ignore is that almost all upfront investment will be recouped should be mine subsequently be sold in the future. Too many view buying the mine and capex as somehow not recoverable. Reality is next buyer will pay all these investment costs because the district has a lot of gold. . La India is open pit so lowest cost to mine and Mestiza and Americas are very high grade so highly lucrative. I think the mine economics are exceptional and hence the high IRR.

The pessimistic case is baked into the market cap in my opinion. Today the sub £20m value is based just on revenue and does not factor in any of the projects. Therefore i am optimistic because the level we are coming from is so low. If we were worth £150m today i would be pessimistic as Italy delay on handover is poor but at £20m we have written off Italy so a surprise handover RNS should take us to £30m and momentum will pickup. Lets see how where we are in next month.

I cant imagine MC bought a mill for the fun of it so they must have been planning to go to production. More likely scenario is Biden timing unsettled the cart and MC and JM must have known 6 months of uncertainty so used time as productively as they could to look at plan B and source a sale or something else. We have 4 or 5 non binding bids so market is very interested. No one can predict outside events and that is equally the case in Condor and their is every reason to be optimistic just as their is every opportunity to be pessimistic. Just depends how things land in coming weeks. Obviously if it works better to mine the high grade ore to fund the bigger plant lets do it. Key is action and we are at the end of one process that might lead to a 50-70p exit or a mine build that will eventually return £1+ and importantly create a $300m+ company over a 5 year period. Its important to remember that a buyer making a $150m bid and $150m build will get it all back as the company by that time will be worth substantially more so it should not be considered as a sunk cost as it will return big returns when they sell the company, further improving returns for the buyer.

There is so much news expected and recent webinar JVL hinted a a number of updates incoming. Sadly like any investor we need to wait but should propel stock back to .3 and onwards. Certainly £100m market cap seems very realistic on the back of expected news when you look back. Italy handover, refinance, Northfork commissioning, Franc, Croatia and Idex and Wood to name a few that should start to deliver over and above the promises of the past. Just need to hold for the cavalry but certainly we need to draw a line under Italy and make it a successfully operating plant and it is a dissappointment they managed that news poorly but snagging on these plants will take time but now at 5 months so we should have a handover within weeks.

Shareprice heading back up in readiness for first binding bid later this month. Its possible the price is firming if several parties involved and a binding bid will not emerge until they are pretty close. does anyone know whereabouts of MC?

All that really matters to a buyer is access to a long-term sustainable cashflow. This is key. While we look at the LOM at 9 years etc its obviously closer to 20-40 years and probably considerably longer as Condor could only do so much on its limited budget to prove the gold in the ground but it is all over the place and they just need to follow the vein. 150k+ ounces is very conservative. AISC calculations were done at the height of energy inflation so that has crashed so AISC is likely dropped even if wages have risen a little in the meantime. Furthermore the build costs are probably now lower as MC alluded in a webinar it was originally higher due to all the calculations done at the peak of supply chain issues globally. The cashflows of $1000 an ounce are pretty clear and a canny buyer will know how to get the most out of that. At this level a buyer has around $150m a year for a very long time to play with. The key to all this is that the price paid upfront for Condor is actually a very small consideration given the future cashflow. I only wished Condor doubled down last December and went for production or organised a JV with someone. I feel JM and MC have run out of puff having been pushing this along for 12 years. Anyway we will find out soon what is happening as something should be announced in the next few weeks as we know of one buyer moving to the finish line and i suspect the TSX listed entities are waiting in the wings. 27.5p seems very cheap but the next wind upwards should hopefully take us beyond the last high of 34p. We have heard nothing for sometime so we know things are happening as any change would need to be announced. gla but lets hope next few weeks the first bidder makes their move.

$2000 gold - $1000 AISC = $1000 free cashflow. AISC includes sustaining costs of production. What buyer does with each $1000 is up to them but its a nice earner however you want to present it but its certainly a minimum $1bn and more likely $2bn over 10 year period.

I would point out that Capex on Scenario B is $160m upfront so therefore 1 year to pay back loan and if we are lucky 1 year of free cashflow to pay off the purchase of the mine from Condor. It is up to the buyer to come up with fanciful costs to extract cashflow abroad and i would expect 0 zero profits in Nicaragua but big profits in some tax haven. Shame as Jim M could have done this himself and siphoned it all off to the Isle of Man but he would need to go private to do that.

I am only pointing out free cashflow that a miner can decide what to do with. Theoretically a miner could run the mine without further drilling if they wish as we have 2m ounces ready to be extracted and that is a 10 years at 200k ounzes a year so you can run this mine for cashflow and generate billions as is clear as the numbers provided. I cant comment on how Calibre run their mine but they bought the mine with one mill not in operation and hardly any gold so they needed to invest heavily to find new resources and they had to pay a massive debt down to B2Gold but that is a different story. If i was a chinese company who bought Condor you would first lend the Mic entity the money at 25% interest and then supply the kit and consultants for the mine mine at a massively inflated price so you could extract all the cashflow out of Nicaragua and into some tax haven juristiction. Mines you need to look at free cashflow as it is all smoke and mirrors after that to dodge taxes.

If you run the Scenario B through a calculator you get a lot more btw. Any buyer will go for 150k ounces a year plan. To make it simple lets take $2000 gold and AISC of $1000 an ounce. Therefore $1000 of free cashflow to play with. At 150k ounces a year that is $150m of free cashflow and hence the reason why MC says payment of the capital cost can be done in year 1. The capital commitment for bigger plant is around $150m. Now go forward the next 9 years of production and you get 9 x $150m = $1.35bn and this is conservative in that gold price will rise substantially and this could easily move to 200k ounces and the mine will be 20-40 years as we are only looking at the base case of La India when this is a 5-10m district. Once you run the numbers you can see where this is going and could easily be $2bn over a slightly longer life of mine or if gold rises to $2500 then you reach $2bn of free cashflow to play with within 9 years.

I am sure MC has a multitude of options from A-Z based on the high interest in the asset from outright sale of asset, through to JV and all share sale to some TSX listed company. I am sure he has plenty of deals and it will obviously take longer to work through them all and keep the bidding going. The longer the process the higher the price in all probability. For MC to be so confident in the sale and his tweets and language he must have the price and we have had no RNS saying anyone has dropped out of the bidding so go figure what is about to happen. We just need to wait for the deal to finalise but we could find out something completely different like a JV etc but the key to this process is that it flushes out all parties who might be interested and how they might like to structure any deal is stage 2. All we know is that there is over 1 billion of profit to be had over next 10 year and probably a multiple of this if gold rises into the future. Do we think a buyer is going to haggle over whether it is $100m or $150m at this stage given almost no other project like this ready to go and this will be immaterial to the buyer as it will be fully repaid within the first year of production so the price up front is not really the issue. The buyers are looking at the scale of the future revenues and working back.

I was able to take some up but it was tight on time. Ultimately for £6m of cash to be injected investors completed thorough due dilligence so we can be sure TK will proceed so i see this as positive as it removes risk and gives us cash to close TK and saudi and push on harder. I am sure last 6 months we have been limited by what we can do but now we can crack on. In 3 months all will be forgotten. after a small drop we will climb as news starts to emerge on TK. Our faith is tested as it always is but the project is real and we are at bargain prices today.

Placing not far below current share price, shareholders can participate at same level, no warrants and cash to be used to help close TK and keep our Saudi stake topped up. We cant really complain on the face of it and while its frustrating all cash is heading to the front line to close TK that even today Harry is expecting to announce something. I can see argument why now if TK is all but done but sometimes when your organising your plans and £5-£7m is dangled in front of you and financing is not so easy today you take it. We are so undervalued that these dilutions will not matter in long-term but we can rest better knowing we have a lot more firepower to make TK happen and keep our share solid in Saudi and maybe get the Saudi listing. gla