The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Good post there Coach777 and well worth a read. Do your research and when you think you know enough... do some more! There is always more to find out especially in a dynamic evolving situation such as this. I would recommend people to research the types of potential mineralisation that can occur within the Greenstone Belt as there has been a lot of work done on this. When there drill results start to come in it will make it a lot easier to interpret the detail in context. Our focus in the BB has always been largely about the solid gold fraction in place but consideration should also be given to the copper and rare earth element concentrations when the time comes for a true assessment of value
For all those interested in understanding the commercial background to the Ernest Giles exploration and Newmont, the following local news article from October 2017 may be of interest; https://www.perthnow.com.au/business/proposed-royalties-hike-could-kill-telfer-gold-mine-ng-b6ade77fd0da53295ecfc14e822eba4f It goes some way to explain why Newmont was interested in EG last year. Basically, the current Tefler mine is projected to run out of commercial gold production by around 2020 unless local expansion opportunities can be found. EG located 30km away presented a very compelling opportunity. Newmont have all the infrastructure in place locally with current operations and plant. A new commercial asset 30km away was just what they needed. Unfortunately, after 5 months of assessment Newcrest decided that it was not worth pursuing - even though they badly need to expand the operations around Tefler. It looks to me like they (Newmont) badly wanted it to be workable but it just wasn't - or at least not worth spending money to find out! Just an opinion based on what I am reading. Other opinions available and welcome......
Link to presentation: http://www.newcrest.com.au/media/presentations/2007/Telfer_Site_Visit_Presentation_131107.pdf
Afternoon all, For those who have me filtered for 'deramping' unfortunately you will not see this post. Hopefully others who take a more balanced view will either have already read this document or will find it interesting. It is a presentation on the Tefler mine 30km away - operated by Newcrest. Its is 10 years old but is useful to see the nature and scale of the mining operation which is staggering. The Tefler deposit is acknowledged to be approx. 26m oz of gold and the document shows that at Tefler there was an extraction rate between 2007 / 8 of around 700,000 oz / year giving the deposit a life span of approx 30-35 years. Page 24 sets out the costs of running the operation at the time which averaged approx $460m / year not including deferred costs and depreciation. The point here is that commercial mining of the type required to access the likely mineralisation in the GGP licence block is dependent on scale. I do not know exactly what the minimum ore body size would be for it to be deemed commercial but unless any mineralisation is close to the surface, it would need to be sizeable to offset the costs. Thoughts on a postcard
Dodgemeister, Many thanks for your comment. I do not have direct experience of working in the mineral extraction industry but I have been trading / investing as a private individual in such companies both on AIM and on the main market for 9 years now. In that time I have had successes and failures but on balance it has been a profitable experience and I have picked up what I feel is a decent understanding of how exploration companies at various scales work and also of the overall marketplace. I apologise if you find my earlier comment condescending and I hope that those who have their head screwed on will not see it that way but rather as a warning to those who may be influenced by the blatant ramping on her over the last few days. Earlier this week we saw a sentiment driven spike in the SP. This was not driven by news. It was not driven by a particular reference rumor. It was triggered in my view, by opportunists playing on the unknown and 'painting a rainbow' for people to chase. The SP surged nearly 25% and has since fallen back around 15%. There is still no news or new rumor. The directors have not purchased any more shares at this 'bargain price' since the middle of last year. Has anyone asked themselves why that is if GGP are on the cusp of a reformation? They are not is a closed period precluding director purchases so is GT skint? I doubt it. So why is he only holding 4.2m shares?? I did make some predictions earlier in the week. I did not mention shorting at all but I did say that the SP would drop 5-10% which it has. I have not predicted a retrace back to 0.60 today but rather before news which I stand by. We will see next week how that plays out. You may regard my posts as subtle deramping and that is your view. As I have said previously, I believe GGP is a good company with good *potential* assets but there are several hurdles to get over before true value can be realised. I am not interested in hype driven spikes. I have seen good people loose thousands on these and it does not do anything for the reputation of the company or the market. I would rather some people think me condescending if my words of warning save others from loosing money.
Nice to see it holding so far today but in fairness I think we will slip back to 0.60 before news here. I can't see any news dropping for another week or so at least and even then I think people need to be realistic as to what the news flow will be. The boreholes and analysis being undertaken at the moment is a first stage intervention at the site with very wide spacings between the boreholes. The purpose of these holes is to get a better feel for the gold play distribution laterally and vertically across the licence area and also to start to assess the physical rock properties for mechanical strength etc. If people think that the next RNS is going to say 'we have proved 1m, 3m 5m oz of gold then they are barking mad. It will take several successive phases to borehole investigations to fill in the 'gaps' in order to evidence a resource estimate to a level that will hold water with any potential off-take partner doing their own due dilligence. If you don't believe me, go an read up on REM / KDNC. They are sitting on a massive lithium resource in mexico which is VERY near the surface (less than 15m depth in places) and they have been drilling and drilling and drilling in phases since 2013. Only now in 2018 are they getting close to securing funding to develop the mining / extraction of the resource and even that is up in the air. Investors looking here need to keep their heads screwed on and assess the risk here in the cold light of day. GGP MAY prove it up successfully, but this will take TIME. If people expect a provable resource estimate to be stated anytime soon (which is the only way to achieve a JV / Sale) then they are going to be sorely disappointed.
**** the charts at your peril. There is a reason why professional traders use them. I am by no means an expert on the techniques but I have been trading / investing long enough to know the basic principles and have seen this pattern many many times before. GGP are a good company with good potential assets what require work but this is AIM and this SP will get manipulated something chronic whilst speculation and rumour are all that there is to go on. Newmont walked for a damn good reason. If they can prove it up then great but it will take a good amount of work to convince a major. That will take time...... In the meantime the SP will spike and retrace..... mark my words.
Watching this closely at the moment and can see a 5 - 10% pre-close sell off coming in the run up to 4.30pm as traders close out their positions. Good progress for the day but still not substantiated by news if it was a leak / rumor. Would be nice to see it hold here but I don't see it. Traders will close out their positions and to de-risk against a drop tomorrow morning if no news then. Just the way I see it.
Agreed that would be nice to see and a good base to build on but without news its not going to happen. There is no chance this will hold onto 20 - 25% gains with no substantiated change in circumstances having been held in such a tight range between 0.54 and 0.60 since March Just looking out for new investors here. Its a really decent company but you will be able to get in cheaper if you wait. Just look at the chart, the mm's are slowly releasing the pressure back down here. Without news to the contarary this will continue this pm
Agreed, this is a good company with lots of prospects but IMO news is still a way off. This is being played for day trading based on tapping into people being trigger happy on the buy button. All it takes for a fake spike is to deliberately put through a few decent buys in quick succession and the rest is done be people piling in for fear of missing out. By all means get in now but this will drop with no news. Buy in cheaper later on.
I've seen this before so many times on high expectation stocks where people are wired ready for news. This looks very much like a false dawn at this moment. Without news this is likely to finish flat today. Be careful those trading.
A little too kind of them don't you think?....... When in history do MM's do things out of the kindness of their hearts. Come on people.......
Something tells me this story is not over yet..... Wouldn't be the first time directors have cited a doom and gloom situation and then another venture has snapped it up as a shell. Look at FTE / BOS about 18 months ago. Everyone said FTE was dead a buried with the SP at a similar relative level then low and behold it get converted and relaunched into a completely different sector and there was a massive boom. Directors will use this situation to their advantage. Its a punt for sure but there is more to this than the official line i am sure
Its very possible either today or tomorrow. With the continues silence the speculation is building. The pattern over the last few days has been higher highs and lower lows. In my experience these things often run for around three continuous days without news to the contrary. There is a very real potential to do another 50 - 100% from here very easily.
These situations are inherently risky but when the sp is on the rocks speculation alone can make it swing wildly as is happening here. Without volatility you don't have a market. Put in what you can afford to loose and ride the wave. In out in out shake it all about!
Agreed high risk here but can see the bottom of the dip here - hang on for a sharp rise.