The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Absolutely agree Coggy,
We have had over £60k invested in here in the last 2 hours. Buys have outweighed sells today 10:1 (20m vs 2m currently) and we are static....... hmmm I wonder why that is?.......
GLA
Very good to see a continuation of these regular buys at relatively consistent volumes and within a relatively consistent price range. True to form, I expect to see one or two sizable sells towards the end of the session (and after hours) to maintain the range.
As discussed yesterday IMO this is blatant orchestrated accumulation. Unknown persons are clearly setting up a position here at these levels, quietly but with purpose!
I remember hearing that MMs can give the impression of sells by transferring shares around. They are not sells in the true sense but can be booked that way. Has anyone else heard of that technique?
Just too may coincidences for this to be 'random' unconnected trading in my opinion.
Read into it what you will. Some will be of the opinion that is is nothing and that is fine. In my profession (mathematical / analytical) I deal everyday with spotting patterns and I see one being established here that is getting stronger by the day!
GLA
OneDayRodney1:
Do you not think there is something else going on here? I would genuinely be interested to know what you think about the evenly spaced large buys over the last few days which coincide with the flat-lining SP. In your opinion, do you think these are just random PIs?
I do not feel I am manipulating facts at all. The SP is clearly being held level and those big trades have gone through for all to see. I realise this may not be the full picture but those are the published facts we have to work with aren't they?
I know I am drawing a speculative conclusion from this but that is, IMO, the nature of the game here. If it were possible to draw a solid conclusion from crystal clear evidence then the MMs involved would be in the dock!
RainbowRider:
Yes it is! It comes under Part 5 of the Criminal Justice Act 1993 which was revised and reformulated into the Market Abuse Regulations in 2016.
In short, a MM is not permitted to manipulate the SP of a listed company for the intended purpose of benefiting an interested party. There is a fundamental problem with enforcement though as it is extremely difficult to prove, especially if it is done very 'gently'. No MM would be so stupid as to drop a SP suddenly and then put through a one off massive buy at a discount. What you do see is a number of slight drops below a pre-established base to allow accumulation gradually over a period of time. The buys are large enough to get the accumulation complete in time for the rise but are small enough not to unduly arouse suspicion. If anyone questions it, the buys will be plausibly explained away as a normal PI with funds eyeing an opportunity.
There is a fundamental paradox between giving a body (an MM) powers and a remit to stimulate and create a market with one hand whilst on the other hand trying to curb those powers. It happens all the time and is especially prevalent on AIM where FCA oversight is minimal.
AIM is called the Wild West for a reason!
I don't actually view it as a problem as long as you recognize it for what it is. In this situation it can be a useful tool to see what the MMs (and those connected with them) actually think in terms of where the SP is going.
OneDayRodney1: only because of the after hours reported 7.5m sell which was likely part of the MM intervention to keep the overall SP trend within the present (flat) range so that the next (larger) accumulation tranche could go through at similar levels.
Further to my earlier post this morning (see below), I see that there has just been another sizable trade for a just under £25k go through at a SP level consistent with the previous 2-3 days of similar 'one-off' daily sizable purchases. It really does look very much like the SP is being kept in a specified buying range for accumulation purposes.
Daily buys have outweighed sells for the last three days, during the period in which these sizable buys have been happening and yet the over SP change is practically nil. # un-natural
Just further evidence IMO of pre-positioning here, probably with the help of at least one MM. I would not go as far as there being a general leak on results but someone / or a collection of individuals clearly thinks they are onto a winner here at present levels. # Devil in the detail
GLA
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Morning all,
I have been watching the nature and distribution of trades here and in recent days there has started to be more regular sizable buys of around 12 to 19k..... Not enough on their own to push the SP up and quickly countered by the MMs using reserves to re-stabilise the price. In my view, the MMs have this perfectly placed now to spring up suddenly on good news and I would not be surprised if they are facilitating a few buddies to accumulate at these levels.
I know these levels have been around for a couple of weeks now but I sense that the MMs know that the EWTs will be reported soon and can feel a slight change in them. I little more effort to stabilize the price here for a reason.....
Some will say that opinion is just 'wishy-washy' but the devil is in the detail. In my view, the markers are there, albeit subtle but this is coiled up like a spring...
GLA
OneDayRodney1: My earlier post is indeed speculation on my part but with that I consider to be a degree of experiences reasoning to it. I hope the title ('Reading the tea leaves') makes it clear that it is precisely this!
On your first point, I do not have evidence to prove that the MMs have reserves / holdings and what those are. However, in principal, a trading facilitator (MM) would not be able to act/operate if they did not have some sort of holding. For example, if and when the good EWT results come and there is a surge in demand, the MM would be seriously out of position if they were trying to fight to buy shares on the open market in order to satisfy that demand in real time. The MMs are there to control the market and would not be able to exert control without a holding of shares in that event.
On your second point : I stated that the MMs probably think that the EWTs will be reported soon. This should not really surprise anyone should it. Most contributors to this board are of the same opinion. What does soon mean? Hours, days, a couple of weeks? It depends on your perspective but I would regard the MMs as professionals tho take a view on what may happen over the coming weeks and adjust their actions to position themselves accordingly to ensure they are best placed to benefit.
In terms of my post implying that the MMs know that the EWTs will be positive I would refer to the SP. The current SP is low and has been placed there by the MMs in consideration of the current level of uncertainty and risk. There is potential to drop further if they needed to but the potential up-side is proportionally greater and in my view the MMs are hedging their bets that it will indeed go up rather than down.
I hope that makes my earlier post a little clearer and places it in context.
Morning all,
I have been watching the nature and distribution of trades here and in recent days there has started to be more regular sizable buys of around 12 to 19k..... Not enough on their own to push the SP up and quickly countered by the MMs using reserves to re-stabilise the price. In my view, the MMs have this perfectly placed now to spring up suddenly on good news and I would not be surprised if they are facilitating a few buddies to accumulate at these levels.
I know these levels have been around for a couple of weeks now but I sense that the MMs know that the EWTs will be reported soon and can feel a slight change in them. I little more effort to stabilize the price here for a reason.....
Some will say that opinion is just 'wishy-washy' but the devil is in the detail. In my view, the markers are there, albeit subtle but this is coiled up like a spring...
GLA
Good to see the rise here today. Hopefully the start of a steady readjustment to a realistic SP / MCap. In my opinion FRR really are in a great position now to grow from here. The early indications are that zone 19 may well be an unanticipated gem that is more prolific and easier to tap into than originally expected and can be easily combined with zone 9, 14 and 15 production plays.
My reading of the situation is that the zone 19 discovery has thrown the strategic plan and the anticipated well economics into the air. The available evidence at this stage strongly suggests that zone 19 offers a really decent well payback on its own! I would expect FRR are reworking their numbers now in the light of this.
I fully expect that they will apply for, and be granted, additional institutional support to extend the depth of Niko-1 to tap into zone 19. It is just far to tempting from a risk / reward perspective not to go for if you are at zone 14/15.
It is true that FRR have been at this a long while, and the market is obviously applying a fair degree of skepticism to the project in terms of what they reflect in the MCap but at current levels I would agree that this has been taken to the extreme. Literally no value from the upper gas reserves has been accounted for in the MCap and the current valuation is based purely on a conservative assessment of zone 9 and 14.
This is before anyone even considers the lower zone 20s and the Miocene gas play.
The transition from 'exploration' to 'producer', combined with a positive revenue stream and an adult approach to management by the BOD using revenue to pay down debt are, in my view halmarks of a company coming of age.
As a UK Chartered Geologist who has worked in industry for over 15 years I can tell you that the recent seismic activity in the region has absolutely nothing to do with the HH well operations. Any trained geologist will tell you that the south-east of england is undergoing regional tectonic compression as has been for millions of years. It is partly this lateral compression from N-S that has created the 'bowl' shape of the Weald / London basin in which the oil has accumulated so we should all be thankful for it!!
The southeast of england is tranversed by numerous strike-slip faults trending roughly southwest to northeast and it is along these faults that stresses are dissipated though sudden small displacements causing earthquakes. Added to this tectonic activity, the 'recent' glaciations over the Quaternary period (last 100,000 years) has led to vertical stresses being set up int he shallow crust due to the transient pressure of the ice sheets which covered the region. Now the ice sheets have melted, the stresses set up in the crust are dissipating over time which can also lead to small tremors.
If anyone thinks that earthquakes are unusual in the UK or particularly associated with oil drilling then they would be well to look at the records held by the BGS at the following link.....
http://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/hazards/earthquakes/UK.html
Redheadedranger...... one thing to bear in mind when comparing the original HH flow testing ops with the current EWT is that the well has been shut in for some time now and will almost certainly require an acid wash to ensure that any 'scum' that has developed in the well is removed as otherwise this could materially affect the permeability of the perforations and thus impact on the flow rates.
The same pre-cleaning operations were likely not required first time as the testing was carried on on a 'fresh' well with newly installed and perforated casing.
Patience required here..... I'd far rather they took their time and did it right the first time. It is very easy to cock up a well beyond repair...... as BB has recently showed them. I should think that SS is acutely aware of the importance of not accidentally killing his golden goose......
Looking really strong here..... if the previous pattern holds we may see a mid afternoon dip before a rise into the close. Still plenty of time for a good shake of the tree. Most likely in my opinion (for what its worth) as the MMs will want to take every opportunity to 'make a market' and give themselves the best position into next week. Keep your wits about you this afternoon if you are trading...... ATB
Similar pattern to yesterday in all probability with the MMs actively managing the rise and keeping it in the 15%-20% range. I fully expect a intra-day pull back to around 1.8 with a rise into the close. The tricky thing is gauging the peaks... but its a nice problem to have! Obviously of no consequence to those holding but an opportunity for those trading.
Looks to me like the MMs are actively managing this rise in the SP and want us on 15% - 20% rise today. Hopefully we will see another modest rise towards 1.8 - 2p tomorrow into the weekend on anticipation of some news early next week.
Personally, I'd rather steadily increase the base level and spend some time consolidating in between news as it prepares and supports the company. Large intra-day swings just bring the traders..... I know as I readily trade... but not here.... not this time......
Just popped in to say a big well done to those that were holding this at the beginning of the month around the 0.6p level..... I really am so pleased for anyone who has made some money here. I did ok in my book but admittedly sold out to early on the rise...... I will be watching this one with great interest although I am tied up in UKOG for the moment.
GLA
Very exciting times here whether you are a LTH or a newbie. My first foray with this was back in 2014-15 with Doremeus as part of a self admitted love-affair I had with DL after the 2013 boom in REM (a lucky first investment)...... I have been in and out over the years and just about broken even overall (I got caught on the drop from 3p in feb following the failure at BB.
After picking myself up and dusting off I did alright in GGP over the last month but admittedly I sold too soon.......
I am now fully invested here with UKOG with an average of 1.4p (kicking myself for not buying on Mon/Tues this week......)
In my time around UKOG I have learnt to gauge the issues, the sentiment and the risks with the exploration of the Weald. Although there has been a lot of dilution here it has been necessary to move the project forward. Rome was not built in a day and commercial production requires extensive testing. This is now the beginning of the end game for Horse Hill and the 150-day extended flow test will be pivitol in defining how history will remember the Weald.
DL is a marmite kind of character but whatever you think of him, he has bought 25 million of these shares in the last 2 days and one thing is certain.... he is not in the habit of loosing HIS money.
I fully expect these to be around 2 - 2.5p on initial flow test results and, assuming good continued flow results from the Kimmerage zones, I would expect this to build to 4-5p come autumn / early winter with sentiment playing a BIG part.
GLA