London South East Oil & Gas Investor Briefing with guests from Coro Energy & Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas - Book Now
I agree with that,
For anyone interested, the planning application for the HH site expansion went in before Christmas and was rubber stamped by the Local Authority on the 20th Dec. Public consultation on the plans is now underway (commenced 11th Jan) with the full planning permission expected to be in place on 20th Feb.
Planning application is for drilling of 4 production wells, 1 support well in addition to the HH-1 exploratory well already completed (6 wells in total) in addition to expanded processing and support facilities.....
Oh yes..... i nearly forgot...... and 25 years full-time production.
Having been involved with many AIM stocks over the years, the trick in situations like these is to put emotion to one side. Emotion is a dangerous thing especially on sentiment driven AIM.
I will leave company fundamentals to one side for a moment - they are well known and you either see / believe the value / potential or you do not. That is a discussion for others to have. Personally, I believe in the potential that UKOG are unlocking and agree with their approach.....
I have been in this situation several times before and they key thing is not to panic and to try to chase rainbows. I know many do and that is their choice. Some will be quick enough to make a profit however in reality a sizable number miss the window and get trapped on a spike.
The UKOG / ANGS situation is strategically interesting and if you look at the SP performace, both are clearly cyclical with their respective development program phases. Being at different stages in their respective exploration stories, the SP oscillation of both stocks do not follow each other and that creates interesting possibilities......
However, and this is the main point, in order to maximize the investment opportunity, I would argue that the savvy investor should invest in the opposite direction of current SP movement and sentiment to avoid the above risk of getting trapped....
Although it is counter intuitive, I prefer to buy a share at an unloved stage whilst all the noise and hype is elsewhere. I am relatively patient and, providing you believe in the company, a rise and associated profits are almost guaranteed. Such is the situation with UKOG at the moment.
UKOG is clearly being hammered. As it has been hammered several times previously to this level - accompanied by a respective hype and spike in a related parties SP (ANGS). The situation will reverse itself in time and will likely play out over and over again.
The analogy I make is to say that; in the rush to see what the neighbors have done, everyone in the street ran out of their houses and left their doors open. While everyone was gauping and oooing over the road, a thief came in and robbed the bloody lot of them!
Coincidentally, I have filled up my bag of UKOG swag yesterday and this morning......
I wish everyone the very best of luck wherever you invest - I really do. Loosing hard earned money in shares can be heartbreaking and life-changing. I have made mistakes before following others but since I have adopted an 'independent' emotion-free mindset, the quality of my investment decisions have improved dramatically.
Good luck all - whatever you decide to do.
Recent Broker Targets:
11th Jan - UBS - Reiterates previous target of 520p
10th Jan - RBC Capital Markets - Outperform target of 670p
7th Jan - HSBC - Buy rating with target of 675p
A very strange day indeed.......
In my view, an opportunistic stunt by the MMs to tap into fear over the Brexit vote even though 4/5ths of the group revenue is outside the UK and Europe. A ftse 250 company 8% down with buys outweighing sells by 25%..... come on, seriously???
Having researched a bit more, it looks like the drop today is due to year end operating profits 'ONLY' being in line with projections, rather than the hoped for / expected 'exceeding projections' which was previously notified in October and reported in headline news by the FT.
This is the only 'disappointment' that I can see with the current situation but in reality, any company booking profits which fully meet expectations and show strong growth in the current economic climate is doing very well indeed.
I do not believe that the company is even that exposed to Brexit as UK recruitment only accounts for 1/5th of the business revenue stream. Of the UK revenue stream, this only dropped off 0.8% in Q4, in spite of looming Brexit chaos, whilst the remaining 4/5ths of the business, representing global revenue streams was up over 15%.
The MMs are totally mis-reading the situation here or, more likely, are playing into peoples nervousness at the present time.
This company is nowhere near as exposed to Brexit as even I first thought!
Strong KPIs here as evidenced by today's trading statement. Good margins and a nicely diversified Client sector makes this a sound defensive stock at this moment in time. The fact the company can generate such good numbers in Q4 2018 in the shadow of Brexit is a testament to this.
Good to see both Merian Global Investors and Liontrust buying significant holdings in the closing months of 2018 at a significantly higher SP and continuing to hold.
I find it hard to believe the SP reaction today particularly with reported buys nearly outweighing sells by 2:1. Ripe for a strong technical bounce on trading pattern alone before any fundamentals are factored in. This is being treated like a small cap or an AIM share today with a massive and misplaced over-reaction to the trading update.
Just look at the accounts of the FTSE250 company and listen to the trading update online for heavens sake.....
Ah well, just a little patience required for sanity to start to filter through after the MMs have positioned themselves nicely for the inevitable rise...
Having listened to the full year results conference call and studied the results I am of the firm opinion that the drop today has been overdone and that the current SP reflects a great buying opportunity.
Q4 2018 was a record quarter with gross profit up over 15% with year on year growth across 20 counties up over 20%.
Strong cash position of c.96 million pounds and 2018 operating profit to be in line with expectations despite concerns within the sector over Brexit.
The only reason I can see for the drop today is that growth or profit was not as high as expected however the CFO has stated on the record that operating profit is in line with published projections. It could well be that the market expected more growth but honestly, 15% growth in the last quarter and overall annual global growth annually of 20% is brilliant especially in the current climate of uncertainty.
The ratio of fee earners to support staff has never been higher and the 2019 outlook is strong. Any improvement in clarity over Brexit and/or the China trading outlook and this will improve further.
I can't see much downside from here and think that this point represents a great recovery play as the market is currently either messing with this deliberately hoping that people won't examine the fundamentals or have completely overlooked the facts!
Absolutely agree Gareth3672... Halfords are in a strong position both in terms of market share and balance sheet fundamentals. I don't quite know what on earth has brought about the scale of the drop over the last few days as in percentage terms this is completely out of proportion with the observed profit variation over the last quarter.
In part, the profits warning is a function of a very mild early winter which did not meet expectations or forecasting. This is no reflection on the management or health of the business but is rather just one of those environmental effects that leads to periodic fluctuations.
The CFO opting to buy 30k pounds worth on Friday is a clear signal of confidence from those who know. It is important to note the wider confidence in the business that led to the very same CFO previously buying over 25k pounds worth of shares in November 2018 at over 280p per share.
This a ridiculously low SP here. Headline profits barely down 6% and a 25% reduction in the SP over the last few days. Three respected brokerages see over 60% upside in this even after the recent profits news and the CEO has gone on the record to state that the generous dividend policy is in line to be maintained.
For a ftse250 company the yield and p/e ratio is great and this is defiantly an entry point for me. I bought in 20k quid this morning at an average of 215p and this is a strong hold for me.
As has been said here recently, owned assets and cash in the bank equal 500m quid and equate to a baseline SO of circa. 250p.
No doubt this is being depressed today in the wake of other retail sector woes i.e. debenhams and the foodies etc bit this is a materially different business.
Strong buy in my view.
I would certainly agree with that. This is firmly in oversold territory now over 7% down in one day with a reported revenue drop on the year to date of under 5% and with the BOD expecting year end targets to be met.
Three out of three brokers have issued positive reiterations of their SP targets this morning of way higher than the present price and these even included Peel who I find are usually most pessimistic.
No doubt the brexit vote this week is weighing heavily on this at present but we will get clarity on that either way in a few days which should clear the air. No risk to the healthy +3% dividend here as far as I can tell.
The big thing for me is the relatively new CEO piling in here with a £345k share buy in mid December 2018 at 1.05p..... that is 6 months salary for him (taking into account all bonuses).
Bit of an over-reaction this morning. Looking at this as a solid recovery play in both the short and medium-terms.
Slight slowdown reported in last year - probably due to Brexit uncertainty affecting construction decisions and risk taking. Regardless of Brexit though, domestic construction is likely to be a growth area in 2019.
Profits strong here and multiple large director buys in 5 and 6 figures at the end of 2018 for only a few pence less than now demonstrates confidence and outlook.
A definite buy at these levels IMO
Targeting a conservative full time production of 2000 barrels per day by end of 2019
That's circa 66k income to UKOG per day, 2 million per month, 24 million a year...... by end of 2019
Just from HH operations
:) Merry Christmas from SS
New interview with SS out this afternoon
CASH FLOW peeps :)
The more I look at this, the more it is clear to me that the MMs are likely working with shorters to depress the SP here and are taking advantage of a bearish market with Brexit, falling oil prices, Christmas news drought etc to induce fear and panic. A fair bit of 'false news' being put out as well to boot.
Nothing has changed since the last RNS in later Nov when the SP was 1.7p.
I have a professional physiology background and this situation is pure fear and manipulation. The MMs know full well what 2019 holds in store for UKOG and are engineering the drop to facilitate a 'clear out' of investors which will allow them to bank a sizable holding of shares in preparation for this.
Its all a matter of perspective and patience. Your average PI or trader thinks in terms of days (or weeks if you are being generous), however MMs and hedge funds plan much further ahead and are planning for what will happen here between Feb - May. Exactly the same thing happened last year before the re-opening of HH and the commencement of the EWT in June. The MMs crashed the SP by over 40% from circa 1.45p to 1.08p and the comments here on the BB were the same with people calling for SS's head and taking about insolvency. All utter rubbish of course and the SP did 130% over the following month...... now I wonder why that was!!
If you are in this, you have to think like a MM otherwise you will get tossed around in their little game every time they change the direction of the wind! UKOG has never been so advanced in its operations or generating so much direct revenue. Fully funded for the Q1/Q2 HH expansion programmes with sister companies like ANGS actively about to feed into the knowledge pot.
Put it another way.... the MM's would not be taking such an interest here if they did not see future value / demand for the shares.
My take on this is that we are now at the bottom of the quarterly trading cycle here. It was due to head down towards this level anyway based on technical charting but IMO this dip has been accentuated and exploited due to it coinciding with the Watchdog story. All part of the trading game - I think we will rise fairly steadily from this level in the short term.
We are in the run up to Christmas and online footfall over this period will be high and reflected in the January trading update which in my view will put us back around £2 per share.
Incidental, I saw the Watchdog story last night and thought it was pretty meek and mild at best. Not exactly a hard hitting expose was it. Just a nursery examination of industry practice as a whole using Boo as a case in point. I think the whole story was pretty baseless actually as the majority of customers like a deal. I don't realistically think that the majority of the age demographic who use Boohoo will give a stuff whether people shopping after them got the same deal or not and will not actually feel like they have been pressurised into buying. We are not talking about particularly high value items that is going to break the bank or the dreaded PPI scandal.
Its all a bit sensational and over the top to be honest - clearly the regulators do not see it is a big problem or worthy of any kind of sanction. A slap on the wrist at best!
In a funny kind of way, all I think the BBC have done is to give BOO some free advertising right in the build up to Christmas. Cheers BBC!! You know what they say - any publicity is good publicity!!
Absolute steal at the moment.
Two words...... HELL YES!
Although not without its inherent risks (as are most stocks) with the current potential on 2x drug product fronts plus the very real possibility of a partnership / buy-out by a major, this is an absolute steal at the moment!
Only 31 million shares in issue - circa 50% not held in the open market, approx 35-40% of the MCap as cash in the bank (£8 million) and a BOD heavily invested at significantly higher levels and not selling a bean.
I have 20k shares in this at 63.5p and am going absolutely nowhere - new year will be here in a blink of an eye and its going to be a busy and newsworthy one....
Context is everything.....
Prof Sir Mike Richards of the Health Foundation has recently led the completed review of the UK's record against Cancer which found that over the last 20 years the UK has lagged behind the rest of the world in treatment rates and outcomes for multiple types of cancer.
Prof Richards has welcomed the fact the government had promised extra funding - £20bn extra a year by 2023 - and that cancer would be a key focus for that.
This is the commercial backdrop for Clevegen - up to £20bn extra funding for cancer treatments available PER YEAR for the next 5 years (£100 billion overall)
Big Pharma want a piece of that pie and are willing to snap up 4th generation smart treatments at an unusually early stage. £30-50 million is practically nothing to secure the intellectual property and distribution rights for a drug that, if it works, could bring in literally billions in earning for these firms over the life of the drug.
I am getting in now before this gets snapped up....
Best of luck with Flyb there.... Great to see virgin interested.
I can see 100p to the resistance ceiling of 120p to 130p being tested within the next 6 to 8 weeks easily on sentiment alone. If partnership news or positive trial results are leaks or are published this could do 200p very quickly within a day.
There are only 31 million shares in issue and 17.6 million of those are held in sticky hands. The free float here is a mere 13.4 million shares (43% of the total shares in issue).
Today we traded 3% of the free float on a very quiet day.... It will take literally nothing to create a shortage of shares at this level and a big demand squeeze. This is going to go mental if it stays at this level until news.... I think the MM's will have to raise the SP gradually towards expected news in Q1 2019 otherwise they will have a frenzy on their hands and trading may have to be suspended which of course does them no favours.... No broker is going to make anything from a suspended share which suddenly re-rates to £4+.
Far better for them if they can manage the trading demand and continue to buy and sell but they are running out of time to start that process in my view. With so few available shares, the MM's will not be able to stockpile much of a holding and will be reliant on weeding out sellers to facilitate the rise. Unless people hold their nerve in which case it is auction time folks!
I am in now with 18k at 63.9p and holding tight for lift-off.... Will add more in a week if we are still at this level. Short term target is 100p to 120p.