The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
As spot mentioned yesterday, I always felt uncomfortable asking people on this BB for donations towards my charity work with the volunerable children in Egypt. The main reason was the trust issue, which I completely understand, as people were being asked to pay someone who they didn't know, which of course could raise some concerns or suspicions, and I personally would have been cautious and wary. After Spot's post yesterday, and after the ZERO donations in response to his post, I have now ended the campaign that was set up for people on this BB, but I kept a summary of the campaign for transparency. This campaign was originally set up based on suggestions from some members here and it was not my idea, and I feel very uncomfortable running it now as it puts you and me in a grey area which I would rather stay away from.
Before I go, I would like to sincerely thank the few people who donated over the last 2 years, and a special thank you to one person who was continuously & proactively donating without me asking or announcing my visits to Egypt. I wanted to mention his name, but I think he would prefer to stay anonymous.
I believe this BB is an investment BB to post and exchange views about Centamin, and it's best to keep it for that purpose, so could I kindly ask you not to respond/reply to this post and just stick to what is relevant to Centamin.
I might come back one day if I become aware of any significant developments in the CC or L32
I wish you all the very best with your investments.
Thanks again,
Siko
Hi MrBond,
I'm fine and everything is going very well at my end. Thank you very much for asking about me.
I would rather not to explain why I decided to disappear from this BB, but I can reassure you that it had nothing to do with Centamin.
I hope the SP recovers and you all do very well.
Thanks again,
Siko
Hi Sotolo, I have not been following the company's news closely recently as I have been out for a while, but after your question I had a quick look at the local media. According to the media reports, Mr. Yousef El-Raghy reported that production in March was 1.4 ton, In April 1.2 ton and in May 1.0 ton. The company is aiming for 1.5 ton in June, so it seems like the bottom was in May and the recovery is on its way. Also when I spoke to someone at the mine a couple of weeks ago he was confident of overcoming the recent production blip. Sorry I don't know much about profits and costs, so I can't add anything to those 2 points. My view is definitely this was a short term issue which should not affect the long term future (+20yrs) and it had created a good buying opportunity for many people to get on board. (I'm only talking about the company's fundamentals. The POG is a different factor of course). Good luck to everyone here.. I hope it works out well for you. Siko
The subsidised diesel price in Egypt was increased yesterday by 50% ( from 3.65 to 5.50 LE), but this will not affect Centamin as the company has been paying the international price since 2012 and the company currently is not benefiting from any subsidy. Egypt aims to completely lift the subsidy according to instructions from the IMF, which means the deisel fuel case would be meanless soon and would only apply to the arrears that Centamin had been asked to pay for the period between 2009-2012, which Centamin is challenging in court.
Hi bardill, Your view on the diesel dispute is not different to mine as I personally don't have a view and all I posted was from the commissioners report. I think we all disagree with commissioners report otherwise no one here would be investing in Centamin as we know that the report is so negative and its final recommendation is very bad, but everyone here believes/hopes that the court will ignore that report and rule based on the facts. As to the diesel dispute itself, the court had asked the state council to submit its view about this subject, and their response was what I had posted earlier. From the papers, the report claims that Centamin should be treated the same as petrol companies which pay international prices as they don't fall under the law regulating subsidized diesel as they all have separate agreements, while Centamin's argument is that the company (Alsukry) is one of the industrial companies registered in the industrial register, so should be subject to the local subsidized prices which apply to industrial companies. Unfortunately, I could not post the commissioners report here as I have it in paper copy and pdf file, so not able to post a link, but I managed to find a link to the state council report regarding this matter. I'm trying hard to save some money to get back at this attractive SP, so hopefully soon I might be able to get back on board. I have just come back from Egypt, so it might take some time. Here is the link for the state council report (It's in Arabic, but I tried google translate and it did an OK job). https://www.youm7.com/story/2014/9/9/%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%89-%D9%84%D9%80-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%B0%D9%87%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%89-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B5%D9%84-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89/1857010
Regarding the diesel fuel case, I never looked at this in details before, but as it was mentioned here a few times over the last few days, so I thought to have a closer look. As you now I have all the CC papers, so I looked through the latest file which is the latest commissioners report in 2013, which CEY described as �Negative�, and this is briefly what the report says about the fuel case (pages 60-64): -Article 3, point D of the agreement states (Pharaonic company to pay for all the costs and expenses to carry out all the operations �with the right to recover any costs/expenses as per the agreement") -Egypt was supplying the mine daily with 1,600,000 Egyptian pound worth of subsidized fuel, while the investor was gaining 50% out of this. -There is no mention at all in the concession agreement about the fuel supply, and there was nothing to commit the Egyptian government to supply the fuel, either subsidized or in full price. -As the agreement did not force the investor to obtain the fuel from any specific supplier, local or international, so it's the investor's responsibility to source the fuel either locally or imported and to benefit from the agreed tax excemption as per the agreement. This does not affect the investor's rights to recover the costs and expenses as per the agreement. -Egypt supply investments projects, based on law 43 year 1974 and law 230 year 1989, with subsidized fuel. All investment projects are treated the same, unless a project had a special agreement in which case that project would only benefit from the terms and conditions of that agreement. -As the agreement between the Egyptian government and Centamin is based on law 222 year 1994, so it does not fall under the same laws as other investment projects. -The agreement clearly states that the investor has the rights to recover any operational costs and expenses, and that includes fuel obtained at any price. -The company, incorrectly and against the agreement, was supplied with subsidized fuel, but that does not give the investor any right or legal position. -Petrol projects have special agreements and pay for fuel at international prices, and so should Centamin, otherwise it would be classed as favoritism, which is against the constitution and the law. More in the report, but I think this gives you an idea of the situation.. I hope this could help you a little in your discussions..
It's been a long time since my last post here about Centamin. As you know I don't hold any shares at the moment, but I was shocked when I knew that the SP dropped so much on Friday. I read the RNS and realized why. Also I was very sad to read all the "depressed" posts here over the last few days and of course I understand where you are coming from. I thought to write a few lines that might shed some light on some of the points you had discussed. I contacted someone I know at the mine about the recent RNS, and his exact words were (Unfortunately, the grade in the area we are currently working at is a bit low). I did not want to ask many questions, especially about the future, for obvious reasons. As to the CC, believe me there is nothing CEY could do to push the CC for a quicker resolution. The only thing they could do, if they wanted, is to go to international court. No one in the government could contact the SAC and ask them to fast-track CEY case. You can even see that Law 32, which is very vital for the economy and investment, is on pause for years and no one could force the SCC to deal with it urgently. The legal system in Egypt is in a league of its own when it comes to how long it takes to deal with cases. One point I noticed from you posts was the diesel fuel case. I will explain this in details in a separate post...
Hello everyone, I was just looking to see how everyone is, then was shocked to see only 3 posts in 7 days!! I hope you and your families are all OK and your investment is doing well. As for me, everything is fine and couldn't be better. Best wishes, Siko
Just arrived at my home town Alexandria after a very long and delayed trip due to the bad weather. The weather here is amazing, sunny and clear skies. Sparkle, I had a look at your question regarding Thursday 403kg shipment. This is the departure report of the shipment that had arrived on Monday. Normally the shipments arrive at the airport on Monday and depart on Wednesday/Thursday. You get media reports for both, I used to post the arrival report on Monday ,, and not the departure report as there was no need. so I hope you don't get confused between both. Sorry I did not have time to look at all your previous shipments reports. Best wishes from Egypt.. Siko
Just thought to pop in and say hello.. My last post here was at the beginning of January and since then life has been very good to me.. I'm so lucky to have met a couple of people who share the same ideas and dreams as me and together our ideas are materializing and our dreams are coming true.. I'm not going to go into details as I know most people are not interested, but I'm sure that the few people here who stood by me at the beginning would be pleased to know that the life of many children is improving and I could not have done it without them.. I'm going to Egypt in a few days time and I can't wait to go as this time things are truly different.. I do have a look at this thread when time allows me, but unfortunately I know nothing about Kinesis and it looks very complicated to me. Once again, I wish you all the very best with your investments and I hope you too achieve your dreams, whatever they are.. Siko
Thank you very much everyone for your kind words. It's very nice to feel this sincere appreciation. I will see if I could pop by and see how you are getting on, but now please get back to your Centamin discussion and enjoy the good result and the positive SP reaction. You have been waiting a long time for this day, so I don't want to spoil it for you :) https://www.gofundme.com/2dj3maew
As most of you know, I have been posting here since 2012, and I think now is the best time for me to stop posting as 2017 has finished and a new year is starting now. I have been thinking about this for sometime and I have my reasons for this decision, but I prefer not to go through them here. This has nothing to do with my investment in Centamin as I don't hold many shares anyway and the most I held at anytime was around 5k, but the joy I had sharing the information with you was priceless. Also this will give me more time to focus on my work in Egypt (which reminds me to thank the few people here who supported me and I really appreciate their help). I wish you all the very best with your investment and I'm glad I'm leaving you in a good positive day :) Siko NB: So that I leave you with all the information is up to date, a 467kg shipment departed Cairo Airport this morning :) https://www.elbalad.news/3117210
These quotes, if true, are from Yousef (GM Egypt operations), not Yousef (Chairman). Yousef (Chairman) does not make any comments to the Egyptian media. I personally don't find these comments - if true- bad at all. All the various comments and the shipments reports seem to agree on achieving 2017's target (around 540-550k oz) which is brilliant as the market did not think we would achieve that based on Q1&2 figures and we saw that in the subsequent hammering of the SP, and 2018 target guidance -again if the reports are true - seem to be around 550-600k oz, which I think is a sensible target, and knowing Centamin management they would go for a lower figure and exceed it. I think with the results being very soon we may get a lot of these media reports with figures all over them, so I think it's best if I don't post any of them and wait for the official news from the company.
I agree with you Rebess about the big IF. I could not verify this, but it was published in a couple of sites this morning, so I thought to post it as usual and up to you what you make out of it. "Please don't shoot the messenger".
Sat 6th Jan: http://www.albawabhnews.com/2883904 Mr Yousef El-Raghy: Centamin aims to produce around 560k oz in 2018, up from 550k oz in 2017. I don't know what's meant by "up from 550k oz in 2017", but that's the exact translation. (A bit more figures in the link about profit share and royalties)
I saw that 405kg shipment on Monday but have not reported it as I asked and was told that there was only one shipment last Monday (628kg), was told may be some sources got their figures wrong or were give the figures from the previous 2 weeks (both were around 400kg).
Hi Cowichan, my calculations: Q4 shipments added up to 5768kg, 5.768.000gm / 31.1 = 185.466 oz x 86% = 159k oz. So, (Q1) 109k + (Q2) 124k + (Q3) 156k + (Q4) 159k = 548k oz.. How did you get 565k oz? I know we will know the ultimate figures soon, but good to know how far the shipments are from the actual figures. (N.B We might get another shipment tomorrow)
https://www.elbalad.news/3105396 http://www.dostor.org/2008627 628kg arrived Monday night at Cairo Airport from Al-Sukary. Sorry for not posting this last night as I was waiting to check whether this shipment gets counted in Q4 or Q1. Apparently any production up to the 5th of any month gets counted with the production of the month before, so anything up to the 5th Jan gets counted with Dec production figures (i.e Q4), and also according to this, the shipment on 3rd Oct 2017 belongs to Q3, so Q4 shipments so far: 628kg (1/1) 397kg (25/12) 401kg (18/12) 353kg (11/12) 573kg (4/12) 402kg (27/11) 425kg (20/11) 539kg (13/11) 395kg (6/11) 393kg (30/10) 399kg (23/10) 447kg (16/10) 416kg (9/10) That gives around 159k oz (based on 86% purity), and total for the year 548k oz. I had a good chat with someone and all sounded very good: achieving target this year, higher production figures next year, 100% confidence in winning the court case regardless of how long it takes which is annoying, the recent long-term agreement with Centamin to buy gold from the international market is being received very well by everyone in Egypt and is making the government look good, so the government is happy with Centamin, Centamin pays for the gold Egypt needs in US dollars and Egypt pays Centamin in Egyptian pounds which would increase Egypt's gold reserve, which has not happened for a long time, without affecting Egypt's US dollar reserve. I always like to post with links to the source and don't normally like to post "I heard so and so, and was told so and so), but I don't think I said anything new really..