RE: BP & Pantheon as a takeover target: TARGET PRICE £309.50 FIB 1.6184 Jul 2025 10:13
Hi Scot..i have no idea if derbyshah is on the right track or not ..i fully get your scepticism and i always appreciate your extremely knowledgeable input and have learned so much from you on here.
However in various capacities i have been around and done business with the oilco world and independent oil trading world for well over 30 years and have seen them make many u turns in various aspects of their business where they blow cold for several years only to want back in when circumstances change.
Now that BP have a change of leadership and under under pressure from a certain activist , a u turn maybe easier.
Just to repeat i am not saying derbyshah is right or wrong,i have no clue either way,but in light of BP,s seemingly desperate needs to rebuild their production and reserves, plus limited cash compared to the other majors, it wouldnt blow my mind as a complete shock if BP considered returning to Alaska, especially if by doing so meant buying a company that had potential oil and gas resources together with the added bonus of a ready made team of experts and that the company had the potential to supply cheap and desperately needed low co2 gas that was both vital to the state but also to the country.
Where else can BP find potentially low buy in potential now that so many historically friendly exploration countries are off limits and where the Permian easy pickings appear to have dried up and breakevens are escalating?
The offshore finds in the gulf mexico seem to produce smaller discoveries,let alone the enormous offshore cost.
Guyana dominated by exxon and brazil flooded with domestic exploration,leaving Africa with its list of headaches.
The middle east control more of their own destiny now and the majors are bit part players relative to the old days.
So Alaska could become a vital play for western olcos.
Who knows where this will all end up,certainly not me.