Member Info for SickOfTheRatRace

It seems trading has woken up a bit and there have been some multiple meaty buys of 250k/500k this week. Volume is historically low on this share, it was interesting that there was no obvious reaction to the recent share issuing and the price was static the day after the shares were admitted.

ATM doesn't seem to be a share on a lot of radars and a lot of that will be down to the fact that there are some large holders and a lot of sticky PI holdings post demerger from BMN adopting a "wait and see" approach not interested in selling particularly when production is just starting. Doesn't help free float so movement may be exaggerated on any volume.

Now the plant has started up hopefully we will get some initial production figures soon.

James yes that is correct, no tax deducted. As stated I made a calculation only for the tin to give an idea of value and have built nothing else into the calculation at this time. For example that is based on a mining cost given of around $15k tonne and includes no other deductions such as tax on profits, corporate expenses, costs on as yet unknown finance etc. Equally nothing added for other production such as tantalum/lithium/muscovite which could potentially balance out any deduction for tax due.

As more information becomes available we can adjust as necessary.

As always all investors should do their own research/calculations before deciding how to invest.

"The Vanadium sector continues to see rising demand for new projects, indicating a steady demand for the metal despite rise and fall in price over the last 18 months. According to a recently published report from Acumen Research and Consulting, the overall vanadium market size is still expected to be worth approximately US$ 56 billion by 2026. The long view of the sector has driven developments continue to flow from multiple vanadium companies including Delrey Metals Corp, Largo Resources, First Vanadium Corp., Bushveld Minerals Limited , and Alba Minerals Ltd."

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vanadium-demand-expected-to-hit-56-billion-driving-new-north-american-mining-plays-300851411.html

In the meantime whilst the Americans try and get new projects off the ground, BMN ships a steady supply of Nitrovan direct to the USA.

Kingdom Mugadza of Tirisano Partners in Battery Storage Development

Tirisano Partners, one of South Africa's emerging global leaders in investment acquisition, is taking their partnership with several technology providers a notch higher by actively participating in the research and development of effective storage batteries for renewable energy. The new project is expected to focus on creating a cost-effective and sustainable energy repository which would benefit the whole country in the long run.

South Africa is home to an abundant source of natural resources, and the country has had its share of boom in recent years. The growing economy made a rebound of about 3.4% in 2017, and the economy continues to grow with an expected increase by 4.3% in the years to come.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/access-wire/ASW_Accesswire_547285MSN/kingdom-mugadza-of-tirisano-partners-in-battery-storage-development.html

VRFB for the home.

Vanadium redox flow technology (VRF) has been successfully used for years as a large-scale storage technology for photovoltaic and wind farms. For the first time, VoltStorage takes the world’s most durable storage technology into your own home and offers a pioneering alternative to lithium-ion storage – “Made in Germany”

https://voltstorage.com/en/vanadium-redox-flow-energy-storage-technology/

Another squeeze on Lithium-Ion dominance.

Hear hear.

No problem. I guess it is just from my origins in the BMN chatboard where so much research is freely distributed that I have assumed the same here. Personally I am happy to post my own calculations as and when available, of course these should not be taken as advice and the individual reading should confirm findings via their own methods.

I think one thing we can all agree on, if not necessarily the potential target price until the company gives us more information on costs and sales, is that there is an incredible return to be made here for those who are patient.

Personally I am in this for the long haul.

....and that's before talking about any returns to shareholders.

Hi James0309.

The problem here is that it appears a number of investors are trying to use the Mokopane Tin scoping study as a figure for Uis costs. 993444 has conveniently ignored my reply regarding this. There are no confirmed costs for Uis because resource data is very old and they are currently proving up the resource via drilling/study to create a feasibility study. As a company it makes sense not to confirm a cost figure until you actually know that what you have been told is in the ground actually is. With new techniques there is also good upside potential. According to the May 2019 presentation the resource should be confirmed H1 2019 so by the end of this month.

At present the figure to use has to be the one in the recent interview with Proactive. Anthony stated that costs would be in the region of $15,000 - this is the first time I have heard production costs mentioned for Uis. "Region" could be slightly over, could be slightly under. Naturally this makes a large difference if comparing to the Mokopane cost, if the cost at Uis is $15,000 that's a cost difference of almost 5% which is huge, $750 per tonne on 5,000 tonnes is extra cost of $3.75m.

Using the tin target of $22,000 p/t:

$22,000 - $15,000 = $7,000 x 5,000t = $35m profit
$22,000 - $14,276 = $7,724 x 5,000t = $38.62m profit

Using a realistic average of $20,000 p/t:

$20,000 - $15,000 = $5,000 x 5,000t = $25m profit
$20,000 - $14,276 = $5,724 x 5,000t = $28.62m profit

When talking about a company valuation that's a big difference:

Tin @ $22k/t

$35m > £27.65m
$38.62m > £30.5m

Tin @ $20k/t

$25m > £19.75m
$28.62m > £22.61m

Assuming 1bn shares in issue post phase 2 (personally I think it will be more) then for tin only:

At an average $22,000 p/t:

$35m > £27.65m = EPS of 2.765p > P/E 10 = 27.65p
$38.62m > £30.5m = EPS of 3.05p > P/E 10 = 30.5p

At an average $20,000 p/t:
£19.84m = EPS of 1.975p > P/E 10 = 19.75p
£22.48m = EPS of 2.261p > P/E 10 = 22.61p

So that's a 3p a share difference just on quoting an incorrect costs value or basically almost the current share price!

We can double those figures for 10,000 tonne production.

I have not included anything for Tatalum (as yet ratio tin:tantalum unconfirmed) or Lithium (as yet production unconfirmed).

When Afritin have completed their Uis drilling, modelled the resource thoroughly and completed the feasibility study we should have better figures to go on. In the interim we may get an initial handle based on phase 1 production but any future value will have to come via the feasibility study as lower production = higher cost purely from boots on the ground. There should be an economy of scale to work with.

If anyone spots any errors in the above happy to be corrected.

One thing is for sure that if we look only at the tin then there is tremendous upside from here. Add in other production as well and we are looking at a potential 20 bagger or more and that's before talking

The "shorters bible" Vanadiumprice has finally caught up with rises for v2o5 and FeV so that's all main sources now showing rising prices.

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/

Which makes you wonder what the lag on their graphs is all about. Deliberate obfuscation or just a ridiculous lag? We had confirmation a week ago via Metal Bulletin that prices were rising or stable yet Vanadiumprice.com didn't show a static price until Friday. Now their news feed shows FeV up 6.25% yet they don't graph this and actually claim it's down 1.39%!

I get they may be using a different source of prices than Metal Bulletin but something doesn't add up here when Chinese sources already have the price up over 6%.

@993444 thanks for the link. I have already seen that document, from what I have seen the only costs that have been quoted are for the Mokopane Tin project not Uis.

Excellent info BBN.

The question that should be on all our minds is why has the price been suppressed given the ongoing monthly deficit. What you have shown is that regular supply/demand dynamics appear to be only part of the story.

Absolutely and VRFB increases on V demand have been long predicted. An avalanche of demand is on the way. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of our lives!

What is clear now is that storage has gained significant momentum as far as renewables and climate change go - online chatter is now focussing in one direction. Banks are starting to be targeted to be held to account for their investments in dirty energy. I walked past one such protest outside a branch of Barclays just a week ago.

That first Bushveld Energy VRFB RNS will be a game changer for the company - can't wait.

What some onlookers may be failing to appreciate is that the demands of VRFB's can easily swallow all of our additional production and therefore make no net contribution to the current deficit.

The way things stand this structural deficit is set to run and run. Any entity expecting lower V pricing based on increased primary production may well be sorely disappointed perhaps for the whole of the 2020's and possibly beyond.

Worzel7 - yes. The problem I have with making any calculation at this stage is that ATM have been cagey on costs and I believe the interview last week was the first time a cost figure for tin has ever been quoted for Uis. The lack of replies on this board would appear to indicate that no-one else has any idea outside of the company either.

So at the moment all I can do is work on the basis of the margin for tin as about $3850 per tonne (based on current LME Tin prices) until they give some indication of what else they are getting out of processing and in what quantities.

Also we don't know at this stage that the tantalum will be totally free as there may be marginal costs for processing over the tin cost. Naturally we can expect mining costs to be the same if it's the same stockpile being processed.

This may partially indicate why the price is relatively static here right now as it is balanced between the news we are in production and the lack of a fundamentals calculation?

Been following your enthusiasm here and on twitter coffeecups. Have done some research and looks like a great prospect. Have taken a small position. Probably won't have much to contribute to the chat but will continue to follow with interest.

@knutsford how does your contact account for the fall apparently being led by Europe? When Chinese prices stablised and even increased slightly, Europe continued to fall and this led to Chinese prices falling once again. Now we are seeing a turnaround in Europe (Metal Bulletin) and the delayed Vanadiumprice.com has shown Chinese prices have stopped falling and are flat. I suspect as Europe now rises, China will also.

Absolutely Alfa.

@Expert10201 BMN is making profits over a million a week. The last update for six months to end 2018 for SOLG they lost A$37,892,291.

Which company do you think is more worthy of SP growth at this time?

A JSE listing will bring inwards investment for a company that is growing - not burning through cash like SOLG.

The failure to ignite the price on SOLG by moving listing had much more to do with company fundamentals. BMN will be listing as a very profitable company continually growing its interests.