Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The market I think tends to like facts, not speculation (unless it's PI's).
However, 5.7% up isn't that conservative based solely on a flare.
I know you should always take rumours with a big pinch of salt, and there's probably a lot of confirmation bias in this too, but...
That recent rumour that this was a BIG find for HUR (was it 500 - 900 million barrels?), the one that prompted HUR to issue an RNS - well if that was just totally made up then there was a 50/50 chance that could have been instantly dismissed if this was a duster.
Since it isn't and oil appears to be flowing, I reckon that the rumour will turn out to be correct (in that it's a massive discovery), that it will be a viable well, and that the SP will re-rate dramatically over the next however long when that is confirmed and it's implications for the HUR model and operations.
I might be totally wrong, but got a good gut feeling at the minute.
"44.84p last week on rumours of nothing.....now we’re at 43.91p. Insert GIF of person scratching head."
Welcome to HUR. It mkes AIM look sensible.
Well that all looks okay.
Odd quirk is that when commodity prices drop (and hence earnings) that produces ideal investing opportunities for AP.
So the ying is balanced with the yang.
What happened? FoolChild told me it was going up 90%+ in one day and was totally oversold due to "technicals" that "don't lie".
Looks like I was carpet - right, and he was carpet - wrong.
Where is the deluded loon?
these will get bought out by one of the bigger boys.
Is due out next week I think?
I predict another bumper set of results and hopefully the SP to move to a new base of 225-235.
Must be something brewing.
Before anything was proved to be true, all speculation, the Sp gets to 65p.
Once proved to be correct, oil flowing, more success in another exploration - SP at 41p.
So nothing at all but hope 65p, solid results 41p.
And people think the market is fair?
It's all manipulated and all a big con, and as cons go it all looks very dark just before the sudden dawn (or vice versa).
So the question is, are we in the darkest hour before that sudden dawn, or in the bright light of the dawn just before the sudden darkness?
To me there's only one possible answer, but either ay it's ll a big con designed to make the people pulling the strings very wealthy, and the rest of us - they hope we'll be driven by our emotions on the ups and downs until we have nothing left.
"read the reviews on trustpilot" - are you having a laugh?
As with all of these review sites, if you pay for a premium account you can have negative reviews removed, the score means absolutely jack all. It's the numbers that matter, not what some 3rd party website says about service - because even if the score was 100% true, 4.6 out of 5 tells you nothing about how much business they are actually doing, and it's that financial number that will determine if they can survive financially or not. Not a star rating on a review site.
I genuinely believe in the company and the potential, and normally I just hold, can't be doing with trying to play games etc - if you pick a good company then eventually it all comes good.
However this is becoming frustrating, so at c.48.5p I sold half and just bought them back at a much reduced price, reducing the average cost per share.
I think this is how I'm going to play this now - make sure I'm never totally out in case the cork pops out, but keep aiming to gradually reduce the overall cost.
Gently gently catchee monkey.
Emptyvessel - we're the fish being reeled in and out.
Abandon ship, women and children first.
Always wondered why women came before children.
Should be children first and men second - men are stronger than women and so more likely to be able to save the children.
Women are useless.
Anyway, CPR is well beyond being brought back to life through CPR.
I thought you'd sold out - why are you here?
Knowing how HUR SP responds we'll probably go down 5p
News wise anyway - I think some very good news is just around the corner.
It is frustrating isn't it, the SP and lack of movement.
However the way I look at it is this: You start with a hypothesis, move to a theory, and then it becomes fact.
At the beginning there was Dr T with a hypothesis, and he was the only voice in the stadium who thought that fractured basements WoS could produce oil commercially.
When Lancaster started producing, well he could have just got lucky, but with data flowing it's starting to move more from hypothesis to theory, although still more firmly in the hypothesis camp.
Some of the other voices in the stadium might have started to chip in that there could be something in this.
When Warwick was a duffer it created serious doubts andthe voices quietened down again, and it moved even more firmly back into hypothesis territory.
If Lincoln is a winner then the hypothesis moves much more firmly into the theory side, and many more voices will start to be heard.
If a third, and then a fourth drill are successful then the hypothesis will be history and we'll be firmly into the theory stage, and halfway to it all being accepted as fact.
At some point more than half of the voices in the stadium will be singing in unison and at that point the SP will really motor (unless we've been bought out).
Overall if Dr T was totally wrong and his hypothesis was pants, then the chances of drilling 1 hole in the ground and oil coming out would be thousands, if not milions to one.
The chances of drilling 3 holes and oil coming out of 2 of them would be greater odds than winning the lottery 3 weeks on the trot.
So overall, either you believe or you don't, and if you do it's a waiting game until the old guard accept that something new is viable.
All IMHO.
If and when the SP does reach it's potential he'll be back here saying "oooooh it's not fair, I sold and now I haven't made the money I could have. Lifes so unfair, it's all a scam, boo hoo, woe is me, the end is nigh".
It's quality entertainment.
I'm going to end up a patient if it carries on like this.
I take it it's in auction? Means something is happening.