Member Info for ShouldveSold

RE: willec

IMO the market has priced in a $130m in capital raises and capex, with ROI of 450bpd. Which is how the market is valuing the current value of the company.

Sentiment should slowly start to shift the closer we get to May.

RE: willec

I think my biggest surprise about joining this site has been the way members interpret the data compared to the way the market interprets it.
I think I just had expectations that they would align with realistic opinionated topical debates. Its not what I have found.
Its as if being realistic is frowned upon here because this place has been designed to urge the instutional investors to make decisions.

RE: cperkin

I disagree that running a fleet of lorries equates to a small cost of doing business, regardless of where you are in the world or what you are transporting. But I accept we disagree. You haven't seen Aimster have you?
Hmmmm I don't know if Lockeed has transport contracts in Tanz. Its certainly possible.

RE: ArielArrow

I accept your apology :)
We have butted heads before and you have made a personal comment or 2. But I was directly referring to Aimster. I get the impression you two joined at the hip.

RE: Aimster

Back of a cigarette packet calculations loosely based on market prices in Tanz:

•Tractor Unit cost with a 600litre fuel tank with sleepercab- bought; anything from $50,000 up to $150,000 for brand new.
Leased of rented per month????
•diesel costs of $500per day x guestimated 5 tractor units. $2500 per day
• 5 driver wages. Employed or agencied in?
•Fleet insurance for 5 lorries running helium payload?
•Where are the petrol stations located on route? Are detours necessary. How many times will each lorry need to stop to refuel, driver to sleep?
I could go on. My point being is very easy to say truck the helium away but if that trucking process cost $10,000 a day & you are choosing to not factor that into your valuation, ok. I accept your opinion and choose to disagree with you both.

RE: ArielArrow

Aimster is big enough to answer for himself and formulate his own opinion.
You may choose to see it as I am making sound like a problem, I am being realistic about the project. Whether the field holds 8TCF and flows at rates which require 1 lorry a day or 10 lorries. It doesn't change the topography.
That market has priced that in to the SP of both HE1 and Scirocco.
Can we agree or agree to disagree on opinions without insults?

RE: Aimster

I am not trying to catch you out here or poke holes in your logic. This is why debating opinions is important because we all gain insight.

To your point: a couple of truck loads of helium is worth in the region of $1m.
Ok I am confused as to the point you are arguing here?
I am guessing that you are inferring that because the cargo is Helium; Volvo will give HE1 a discount on the tractor unit.
Michelin Tyres will be provided for free.
Drivers won't require the Haz Mat licence, which is reflected in the wages. Fuel will be provided for free or swapsies for some helium?

Regardless of how you value the helium field, it doesnt change the fact that it is 700+ miles away from the port. And financing those transportation costs will have to come from someone's budget. Can we agree on that?

RE: aimster

Are you suggesting fuel transportation & fleet management costs of trucking 1400miles round trip will be lower because the cargo is helium as opposed to transporting chickens?

RE: DaProphet

LOL you are the second person to comment on my unfortunate choice of username. Actually third. Piers put a curse on me because of it. Lol I cannot change it now. >_<
I didn't understand how territorial this site was before I started posting lol.

Ok, so you now have a detailed RNS to base your expectations on. You know what's happening with each project so you can loosely predict, based on calculated bpd×wti on where the SP will be in April. If you don't know, the market will tell you in April what it has priced in.

A blip up based on successful completion and flow test of Saffron2 should also boost the SP. Then being put into constant production will create a floor price. It that means a combined total production bpd of 750bpd, or maybe even 1100bpd with the IT Wells, the SP will reflect that. I'm sure StarChild would be able to forecast a more accurate SP than I can.

I am not focusing on the 30 Wells forecast, that is 12months+ away. The SP today is not pricing in 30 production Wells, its priced in 450bpd with uncertainty about impending costs.
IMO even with a large Stena bill & new share options flooding the market, I don't see how the SP can fall any lower than 0.005p.

RE: ArielArrow

I can't argue with how you worded and agree with the "land locked" definition.

RE: DaProhet

Well tell your opinion on where you think its gets to based on your reasoning..

RE: DaProphet

May I ask what are you basing this 2p forecast on?

RE: StoneFold

Great post, very informative. :)

ArielArrow its my understanding the port where any heluim would have to be trucked to is 700+ miles away. I don't think "land locked" is an unfair opinion to have, albeit trucked or piped.
Depending on how many lorries HE1 would need/are allowed to dispatch every day. That cost has to be priced into production costs.
Even if diesel is very cheap in Tanz, fleet costs are not.
Its very easy to fall in love with a stock luckily the market doesn't and whatever options are debated here, I am certain those opinions does not affect market sentiment.

RE: EggChaser1

Piers I expect you are a member of 21alpha's team & are under direct orders to haze me.

When you are ready to wipe the slate clean, draw a line under it, have constructive opinion based debates with me & can agree to disagree without personal attacks, you let me know. I am ready when you are.
I understand if its impossible because people watching.

I think the SP can only remain range bound until late April.
BPC still have the final figure from Stena Close out costs to settle.
The new financial year begins. The board will all want pay raises which will probably come in shares or options.
I expect the SP to creep up just before the spud. Who knows where WTI will be by then.

There is a lot of the info contained in the RNS today and even though very upbeat & salivating to look forward to; is dependent on the successful completion of Saffron2 & Suriname drills, all regulatory approvals being received and a buoyant oil price.

CERP was always on this path and IMO got sucked into a merger tornado & now has to regroup and get back focused on its core business and organic growth. IMO the RNS details exactly that. I am pleased with it and feel as thought the direction CERP lost with the merger, the course correction has now been made. Onwards & upwards :)

RE: Piers

I see you are still on a mission to make fun of my opinions just because they are different to yous.
Does it make you feel warm inside?

RE: DutchStanton

I note the info contained in the first paragraph. Compare and contrast with the P#1 RNS. Tullow doesn't mention a W.P.S, which is why I still don't understand why some posters put so much emphasis on it.
IMO its a salesman speech.

Projected Bpd

These projected daily production figures by year end 2021 aren't adding up to me. Feels like Potter is reigning his neck in and under promising.

•T&T is currently producing circa 450bpd.
•Saffron2 is projected to produced circa 200bpd+
If they can actually execute 5 more wells and put them into production by year end, that could add anything from 1000-1500. Taking the Saffron Wells to circa 1700bpd.

Adding T&T unchanged to 6 Saffron Wells, possibly up to 9. That would be past 2500.
•Actual PRD production of 6 IT Wells projecting 700bpd would take the total production year end to way past 3000. Not including any other production increases from the other producing Wells. So why project a conservative 1000-1500bpd by year end? What's he playing at? Hoping Shroders will put him in the same league as Leo?

RE:caddy1

Lol management changes like saloon doors 1 in 1 out.

RE: Wotitsworth

Back at ya buddy......