Member Info for ShouldveSold

Yes Star what you have said makes sense.
Being as the interview is being conducted by BPC's commercial director though, its his job to sell the company to potential investors. And the next quarter will see the commencement of 2 drilling campaigns.
It would surprise me if the Bahamas was mentioned other than as you have said  mention "discussions are on-going".

Interesting to see a new presentation announced. Indeed some of you who were expecting an update by the end of April may actually get that news.

My first thought was this would be a presentation only on the upcoming Saffron drill and the compelling investment opportunity BPC now presents regarding the SWP & Suriname alone.
Unless we get an RNS in the coming days regarding the Bahamas licence.

Such is life in Stock market investing. I'd rather take the chance of managing my own money than leaving it in a bank account for the next 10 years and have it earn £10 interest.
We could invest all our money in the high yielding blue chips if we wanted to. But down here is high risk high reward to fund those blue chip incremetal positions.

Bully I think you worry too much about what other investors are doing with their money. Its not good for your mental health.

1.5% rise so far in the SP. Bang on time lol
I'll take a 5% rise every week for the next month thank you.
:)
That being said, once it reaches a plateau, the financiers may ask for their pound of flesh. So I am not going to count my chickens.

Wotitsworth ah yes, news on a Farm In/Out on a non commercial asset. That does imply a deadline.

Star
I appreciate the raid reply.
The relevant part of your post is:
Technical information of the Percy-1 autopsy. A CPR?
Has this information not already been published in the corporate update?
Forgive my ignorance; are CPR's commissioned to independently appaise a non commercial find? To verify the seismic?

I would be grateful to the ones who are expecting news by the end of April to briefly state what they are expecting.
I want to know if I should adjust my expectations.
Evidently some are waiting on another well report to definitively answer whether oil was found or not. Or that the P#1 data will categorically state that the wider Bahamas basin has commercial volumes of oil in place at a yet to be drilled location.

I am of the understanding that the news released on Feb 8th was the final drill determination and the indepth analysis people are awaiting by the end of April has already been published in the corporate update presentation.
What other news are people expecting?

Glad thats cleared up. When you said "YOU" it read as though you were directing that statement at me alone.

Bully I don't know whether you have misconstrued my 2 posts this morning or if you are just saying in general that if "anyone believes a company will pay $65m to Farm In" then they are out of their minds.

Bully no official price has been assigned to the Bahamas Licence valuation or cost of a potential Farm/Out or JV agreement.

Based on the 2 video interviews the CEO has conducted since Feb 8th, I have inferred from his comments that BPC see the $150m they have spent on the Bahamas project needs to be recouped/monetised and so any Farm In/Out JV with a 50/50 split could/would come at that cost.

As I have said, if that figure is not what BPC are considering and it is indeed far less, then it would raise the likelihood of a potential JV in my opinion. Again a JV would be to pay to continue to jointly explore, rather than share production revenue because as yet, there is no production revenue. And if another well is drilled and discovers commercial quantities, it would require a further well to appraise and produce. Which would be fair to presume would push the cost of licence maturity close to or past $200M based on drilling costs alone.

This off-shore game is too expensive for a company like BPC to be attempting in my opinion.

Nice to see more constructive debating occurring and less insults. Personal attacks just distract from whats important; company operations.

Bohemia no matter what way I slice the numbers I find your summation to be in the realistic ball park. There is a financial shortfall and whenever that is the case, I find its better to have the placing debate rather than deny the possible of a one.
At least that way if one occurs, its expected and one is not caught off-guard.

This shortfall appears to be only generated from costs incurred from the Bahamas operations. That being said that is still outstanding debt that cannot be ring-fenced. Starchild provides clockwork financial breakdowns so its pretty easy to do rough calculations.
I am optimistic about production increases in T&T now that BPC is focusing all resources there. I am also hopeful that all 6 IT wells are now adding to daily production. It would be great to read news that production increases is generating enough income to meet some of the outstanding debt and that may help with negotiations regarding the settlement of those debts.
That being said we all know how ruthless financial lenders can be. So a issuance for them to their sell the stock to recoup their fees is logical.

With respect to the Bahamas, every time I read that basin report I get a little more information. I am using it as a data reference tool to help manage my expections. Advances in oil industry tech certainly makes sense where its financially viable to re-sweep areas & re-anaylise & update to see if targets were missed. However when previous operations were conducted by oil giants with relative unlimited funds it doesn't fill me with confidence.

The question I am left asking myself is why would a company pay circa $65M to Farm Into a non commercial find?
If the cost of a Farm In/Out was $100k or half the cost of the Bahamas licence renewal, ok its feasible to believe a company might take a punt. But $65M is twice the value of BPC's market cap & that kind of figure is usually given to a proven asset. I cannot hold the belief that 4 unproven licences are valued at 2x the current company valuation. That would then take the market cap to £100M based on current reported production of 450bpd with P2 reserves of 1.29m.

I retain the opinion that WHEN a commercial discovery in the Bahamas is made, a Farm In/Out will occur.
I don't see a JV exploration agreement possible with a buy in cost of $65M.

Antha its my understanding that because it was an all share merger, no cash changed hands as no cash purchase was made neither were assets bought.
M&A charges totalled $12m. I don't know whether that was paid 50/50 by each company or if it was relevant to the equity swap or if it was one payment made by the combine company.
I don't know if that voids your second question. That being said you appear to hold the belief that commercial oil would of been found if they just kept drilling. Have I understood that correctly?

Bully how can a company drill a well if they don't have sufficient funds in place to pay for the well/rent the equipment?
Unless they still do deals with handshakes & giving ones word to promise to pay?

Morning Tiburn
Where or when did I extrapolate previous Jurassic results onto P#2?
I am glad at least our debates are working constructively so we can all gain a better understanding.
Don't you find it easier to debate the data calmly is more productive that finger pointing or name calling?

I could quote where I said a couple times yesterday that there could be billions of barrels in the Jurassic. Again I think one gets ones wires crossed with what one thought one said, rather than what one actually said.
I am quite easy to get along with when not seen as an enemy.

Yesterday's debate was great. I think the point I was making got lost in the cross fire. So just to make it crystal clear; I have never once suggested that the Bahamas basin does not contain oil.
I have stated many times that all the data suggests there are billions of barrels there. My only argument was & is that the oil has yet to be discovered.
The two articles I provided yesterday explained the reason why no discovery has been made yet. That's the only point I was making.
I think we almost made it through that debate without personal attacks but will take this opportunity to apologise if my views caused any offence.

The CEO has now suggested the the best place to now make a discovery is in the Jurassic zone with the 4 remaining licences. With Tiburn's research and reasoning, a few now believe that chance of commercial quantities of oil being found within that zone is now at 100%, I think now revised to 65%.
To be crystal clear again, I have never disagreed with the data that says billions of billions of barrels remain undiscovered in the Bahamas.
The only way we will know whether this new target will actually make that elusive commercial discovery, is by drilling another well.

I take no issue with anyone dismissing the historical well results nor the basin report.
I don't know if that basin report was done by a geological society, a group or geologists & petroleum engineers who worked on those wells, a trainee geologist or Ronald Mcdonald, Hamburgler & Grimace. I am not offering it as proof. Its just data I found after the P#1 results because I was looking for answer to explain what went wrong.
Pre-drill I didn't even know that information existed, mainly because I didn't bother to do any research. I didn't think I had to because I believed P#1 was a dead cert.

We can all debate what we think is most likely to happen, but until something actually happens & the results are published, we won't know.

*facepalm* that screenshot I took was actually from the BPC presentation in 2010.
I cannot link it because it opens in a PDF. But it shows the Historical Bahamas Activity page 7 or 32. I hope you can find it.

Google this:
sepmstrata.org/page.aspx?pageid=51

Then scroll down to HISTORY.
Its a shame one can't post screenshots here. It would make it so much easier. I am trying to find the other site when I found then chart of the wells & the zones encountered. I am assuming this all took place before the Internet which is why this data is so hard to find.

Geeez this info has taken forever to find. Its unfortunate that its come down to the finer details & semantics but I guess debates always end up here.
Information on the 5 historic Bahamas Wells is scarce but evidently the Cay Sal-1 well, the Long Island-1 well & Great Issac well all drilled through the Jurassic. All wells encountered oil shows. One even flowed 18barrels.
All of this information is relevant but results all remain the same. No commercial discovery has been made.
This is always the point I was making, not as some some received it as me stating " no oil exists in the entire Bahamas acreage". I maintain as yet, commercial oil is YET to be discovered in the Bahamas.

Which is why I provided those 2 articles for everyone to read. So now the debate has turned to semantics?
You didn't give any opinion on the last paragraph of the second article. May I push you for an answer?

Nelly I'm sorry, were you expecting me to provided a detailed well analysis of everything found in each well?