Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I have to agree re. timelines. As it was previously planned that KRT-45 would be drilled before WR34 it must have been a margin call to alter the order. If we now face the usual interminable wait to hear that civil works have started on he next PI well I will be hugely deflated, that's before we even mention the long awaited 'parallel op's', that concept is proving more elusive than Tantalus' fruit.
Feels a bit like everyone who is prepared to take a chance on results not being good has taken a position / topped up. Any more cautious watchers perhaps only have to look at the mcap and think they can sit back and wait. Really it's so low that in the event of good results would paying 1.75-3p be bad value when the top end still values us around only £20m with untapped assets making this a hugely scaleable business? Still, I admit I don't think good results alone will help us breach this range (unless something unprecedented occurs), BLOE need to effectively communicate how they will launch off WR34 (assuming success). If we simply get a good well and news that civil works are underway elsewhere with nothing or even vague nods to the wider strategy then they risk a good RNS falling flat IMO. TMS Reach comments seem to suggest something better, let's see.
No probs Burnbank completely respect your opinion on that I just think (assuming we have a good source) Rustavi's brother is actually being quite discreet saying nothing is known about the result. I'm sure the mood music gets round the site. You're right to be sceptical but I don't see anything in the posts designed to be price moving so just take it as a bit of (hopefully genuine) local colour. As Chesh said we know it's green - hopefully green for gusher! If it turns out to beige I'm blocking Rustavi.
I don't think so Burnbank just a little example of observational citizen journalism that you can choose to believe or not. To be honest I have read stuff on here (not today) which comes perilously close to libelling PH. I think that would more likely pique the interest of the CEO rather than a local commenting on a Christmas Tree installation that is almost certainly visible from a public road. Like I said judging the veracity of the information is a personal choice.
Possibly, but I think the 'bury bad news' on negative Friday is generally thing of the past. Think of brokers not leaving the pub after lunch and retired colonels spluttering cornflakes over their Sat morning FT having missed Friday's bad news on Ceefax. Okay perhaps not everything changes :) but the best you could do is issue an after hours RNS and defer the carnage to Monday.
Ah nearer the top than expected............
General disclosure of price sensitive information
11. An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
— its financial condition;
— its sphere of activity;
— the performance of its business; or
— its expectation of its performance.
Yeah what's the wording on releasing price sensitive news? Is it in a "Timely manner" which gives some wriggle room, not sure if I read that in the AIM rules or whether it's an 'accepted wisdom' of the LSE board though (which could mean anything), will have a dig when I can unless someone else beats me to it. It's a right riveting read.... https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/AIM%20Rules%20for%20Companies%20%2801012021%29_1.pdf
With regards the CEO BigB I think judgement should be suspended until firstly we know for certain that we have a commercial well and secondly what the plan is going forward. In the op's success case I will only feel inspired by BLOE if I see evidence that improved revenues will give them the freedom to make a parallel operations a reality and perhaps some evidence that the geothermic is not just lip service or even box ticking but a strategy to make BLOE more investible to funds leaving pure O&G plays, the big picture, a long play. In the near term it's all about the O&G and that's what I invested in obviously. Going back to the CEO I guess what we all want see is P1 revenues invested in growing the company for shareholders rather than being an opportunity to enrich the Exec's. They all have plenty of shares so I hope they recognise the big bucks are in aligning themselves with shareholders not milking the company. A small gesture would be the Directors waiving their early repayment fees on the loans which should be repayable if we have production at WR34, not holding my breath though.
To be fair the history of P1 has shown that even though it's the same technical concept they've all unfolded differently. Initial results have been misleading in a bad way in the past and more recently giving the SP an unwarranted knock at WR-B01Za. The TMS Reach article does a suggest that an Op's focused article will follow hard on results and I wonder if to fully launch the strategy we need a steady performer with WR34 so certainty required first. Hard I know as we're all desperate to hear about the next steps asap.
As Heps pointed out a week or two ago JKT-01Z results came quite quickly. I think initial rates were announced after just a couple of weeks. WR-B01Za took quite a while before we knew we had a good earner but perhaps that reflected the well bore issues during drilling. On thing for sure after past mistakes in 2019 I don't expect them to start shouting about prod rates until they're certain.
Oldlogger I was of the mind that something hugely unexpected was unlikely for the reasons you listed. In other words the history of the field has given us a reasonable level of certainly that we'll get commercial wells with modern techniques but we're unlikely to knock the ball out of the park given the historic draining of the field. However I had missed the line about this part of the reservoir being untouched, was that in an RNS or the Krtanisi CPR? If we can get decent production plus book an unproven part of the reservoir into our reserves could our value get a leg up on two fronts?
Pretty much agree with that Heps, feels a bit like BLOE are setting the stage for WR34 results, not something we've seen recently. As others have have mentioned part II of the TMS coverage does suggest some developments of the wider strategy at long last. Still as someone invested I'm probably guilty of optimism bias and I am wondering why we're not seeing more interest in the market. Perhaps a lot of wounded investors following the regional destabilisation though I admire the way TMS addressed that head on, I do wonder if geopolitics combined with O&G being an out of vogue sector means that even with good results there will be sellers and it won't be hard to buy for anyone favouring the risk reward.
If Bitsa is around I'd be interested to know if there is any activity at KRT-45? I haven't been able to locate it despite being close to 39, perhaps as they never produced from it the pad has just weathered back or been restored to farmland? Anyway if it is the next ST well shouldn't civil works be visible? Possible new wells from existing pads so could be harder to spot. Anyone with live satellite images?
As I'm desperate to defer a hedge cutting task another thought about attracting new investors. Once we get comfortably solvent I would like to see some progress on the geothermal asap. No need for eye rolls at my tree hugging tendencies but just like the big boys we need to need to show we're serious about the energy transition. O&G is going to be around for a long time yet but the ESG profile of the company is important if, as we grow we hope to court the fund managers. Georgia is also a signatory to the Paris agreement so has its own commitments which we need to align with to be consistent with our in-country relationship. Should also be lot's of free money kicking about for it also on a cynical note!
Interesting BR, I wonder if further farm-in partners might want to see the completed seismic at Dido Lilo & South Samgori from GOGL. Would be good to know where they are with that though their 'News' page doesn't inspire much confidence with the last entry being Nov 22, hopefully all going on under the radar....
I have to admit I would also be surprised if we get two more PI wells in before the years end, BLOE have a terrible record with timescales. This time last year we still thought PIII was starting before the year end. Or look at the PI CPR dated March 22 "Block Energy plans to drill a further five wells during 2H 2022 to 1H 2023". Hopefully WR-34 is indeed a result and they have the confidence to press on hard, my hope is that we get results soon with news that "Civil works are underway at.......", maybe I'm losing it :) I have a funny feeling we may not drill KRT-45, just a hunch but it lies outside of the area of "greater fracturing", had water at 1600m and didn't go on production. Maybe they'll go for a new well with the multi-lateral technology that Chesh mentioned yesterday, weren't these planned from existing pads, so a bit of streamlining there? So while I agree that we need to crack on we do need to caution that what BLOE is implementing is pretty much the antithesis of wildcatting, as we all know we're dealing with part depleted fields and can only have success by utilising the best technology accurately. Oh last thing while I'm on one someone mentioned farm-ins on P IV, as I understand we already have a 50% deal with GOGC in which they have $US3m spending commitments on seismic so that takes care of itself for now I believe. As ever just the musings of an O&G layman so open to differing views, constructive preferably (lest I awake the Harpy!).