focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
The market will catch up eventually but in the meantime it would really help if they made more of an effort to sell the story. Since late Feb when there was a vague reference to pushing on with the KRT-45_ST drilling programme on PI we've heard nothing about how they're going to advance the project. PII is even more of a head scratcher, best part of 5 months since JSR-01 DEEP should have given them the data on how best to progress and nothing. It's like there's all these open goals ready to be scored and they're not willing to take them. Okay I don't really believe there's nothing going on in the background but ffs communicate, instead after a series of cracking RNS's they've allowed it to drift into a vacuum, so frustrating.
Expecting a good week. Top of my wishlist is a comprehensive update on planned work streams across all projects. I'm a share holder, I want to know exactly what's going on, at the minute I don't. I feel they need to get the market looking forward and energise comms, if not general sector malaise and geopolitics could drag this lower. Having said that I believe we're being valued almost as if we're a pure exploration play, production if not going through the roof is becoming ever more diverse and for me de-risked.
I noticed that Adam Habib 'liked' the last LinkedIn post. Wonder if he's possibly back in the picture, now works for Capstan Capital Partners. Didn't achieve anything last time around but he represents an investment bank now so one to watch perhaps?
Just my thoughts but it feels like momentum has needlessly faltered because there is no specific information on next op's. If they are preparing an update to show that a full program is unfolding on multiple fronts I'll be forgiving but for now I'm guessing new investors want more detail on the strategy on the ground. We know that production should grow in Q2 (almost a certainty with the $1m in storage) but who knows what impact maintenance could have again. Just as an example take JSR-01 DEEP from PII - this from Dec 22, "The results of the testing programme have demonstrated that there is unswept commercial oil in the Middle Eocene of the Patardzeuli field. The Company is now in a position to advance Project II, from both a subsurface and operational perspective". Anyone know what's happened since?
This is why I'm frustrated bedex, they knew they had a good run of RNS's to put out and I'm sure they must have known for a long time that Q1 results would underwhelm despite the promising prospects for Q2. To press home the advantage of the positive RNS's and to counter the moderate negative of Q1 production we need to know how they're going to set about exploiting the upside. The successful PII appraisal well JSR-01 DEEP was completed in Nov 22 with low production but the data to theoretically launch a series of producing wells yet we've heard nothing since. WR-B01Za was only handed over to the production team early this month but the fund raise to accelerate that project was completed early Feb and yet they apparently have nothing specific to say about next steps there. P IV is down to GOGC so I guess we're in their hands and we await news of how the gas plays bundled into PIII are going to be tackled. Unless there's a big announcement on PIII coming I just find it baffling why they are holding back on simply explaining a strategy to build on the recent milestones.
Seems to be coming back a bit now which is encouraging. As I said earlier, for me the results were a little disappointing with production being 20% down on 12 months earlier, I'd hoped we wouldn't be so impacted by shut-ins again but this is a complex business and I guess ongoing maintenance is inevitable, it's just the extent of it that is hurting us. What I'm more dismayed about is the poor comms on next steps - we've had a good run of RNS's but have lost momentum when the company should be creating anticipation of the next targets. PH mentioned work on "Many fronts" today, perhaps they're preparing a comprehensive update on all future workflows and wanted to keep it separate from the production and sales results.
I agree that we're not valued fairly and should be higher but it's difficult not to be a little disappointed that we produced 112 boepd average less than for the same period 2022. Revenue is less than half Q1 2022 though of course we had the crazy oil prices last year. Still a strong footing particularly with the reserves and the market should become more forward looking if the strategy is better communicated, just my thoughts not wanting to vex anyone.
I feel we do need more specifics on the accelerated work programme. Great that BLOE is stable and the upside is staggering but I want to hear that they're going at it aggressively. So far the right noises but not enough detail. Sorry for the faint negative, perhaps more detail before or during the interview. Anyone know when and where it will happen?
We'll soon see, but if the maintenance shut-ins that beset Q3 and Q4 2022 are behind us then we could see an improvement. We have the additional modest production from JSR-01 DEEP and a contribution from WR-B01Za over a short period as others have mentioned. I just have a hunch that it isn't just the result at WR-B01Za that prompted the end of the shares for salary scheme but more likely confidence across the broader licenses. What I am impatient to hear more of is the "accelerated development programme", they devised the loan facility to that end 2.5 months ago so it's about time.
Hi all I think we generally agree on most points. Sentiment is so important, on the initial results there had been so much bashing we had posters declaring they were out at 1p thanks heavens as it sunk into the 0.9's when the RNS said they had "some dry oil with zero water cut and high gas volumes", forget all the other producing wells! Many folk couldn't see past the issues with WR-B01Za , which to be fair there were but they had a plan and have seemingly executed it well. I suspect we couldn't hold 2p because of this negativity around BLOE but every positive RNS will serve to enhance their reputation, just seems that four good'uns in a row hasn't achieved that yet.
I also think it will take a while for memories of underdelivering to be wiped. Looks like a lot are de-risking ahead of news. Maybe I'm glass half full with lashings of optimism bias but for me it does feel like we've turned a corner. Having said that who would honestly be surprised if productions figures were simply alrightish with a couple of tales of woe from various wells?