Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I suspect everyone would be a lot happier if there was a bit more urgency to proceedings. I realise O&G is a complex business but just on PII we had the test results from JSR-01 back in Dec and yet we still don't know when the deepenings will commence. We keep hearing phrases like "Accelerated programme" but with scant evidence of the policy being implemented. To be fair it sounds like they have been modifying the rig so that could have eaten up a lot of time.
Sure this is all in the original loan facility agreement but taking up the full amount isn't a great look for me and somewhat at odds with comments in yesterdays RNS saying "Operations presently generate sufficient revenues to cover operating costs and capital expenditures", 24 hours later it seems this isn't entirely true. Also didn't we have 12,500 bbls of oil in storage due to be sold in April, surely that could have given us the necessary headroom. No, I suspect the truth is they took up the full amount purely because it's a good deal for them. The plus side is it shows great confidence but given the favourable terms the sheer brass neck is pretty deflating.
I think we're definitely at an inflection point in terms of the growth of the company we just need to translate that picture into moving the mcap up and SP performance. IMO the first step following today's results should be detailed comms on the operational strategy, we had snippets today on PI, II & IV but we need much more flesh on the bones. They also need to get serious on the geothermal, I know we can't run before we can walk but this transition is going to happen eventually, slowly I agree but the process has already begun, we need to be positioned for it not to hurt us.
Rock it's difficult to estimate a figure across all projects as we seem to produce small amounts of gas from what are predominantly oil targets. That's how I read it anyway, happy to be corrected as it's not my game. However the specific farm in agreement with GOG gives a 50% share of 3.1 TCF of gas contingent. What's exciting is that they'd finished collecting and 'initial' interpretation of the seismic at the time of the announcement (9th March) so hopefully they'll be exploring soon, the Georgian government are in a hurry for energy independence so we should be piggy backing a state driven wide scale gas project.
Sure MR looks like we're positioned to accelerate PI & II with now proven well designs and the plant to do it in tandem. Personally I think the big fireworks should come from the 50% exposure to the work of GOG targeting 3TCF of gas. We know GOG are partly funded on that by the Georgian government so the upside could be massive with no spending commitments, almost too good to be true, of course the caveat being if the work is successful.
Been a tough journey at times but I think we finally have the stability to get a slingshot off the work done to date. Put another way (assuming ops continue to go well) there is an opportunity to get huge leverage off the investment in these projects to date. They can't make those sort of promises but communicating an ambitious work program would go a long way to getting the market to look forward and grow the SP in anticipation of increasing revenues.
Could be a big week, could be not, nothing would surprise me with BLOE. I'm completely mystified as to how we've let the wind drop from our sails following a series of good RNS's in April. The next RNS could completely vindicate the silence if there is a big reveal on a widescale acceleration of op's but if it's a feeble announcement on a single project with excuses for delays then it will likely disappoint. Still positive on this one but perplexed on the silence over pushing the ball forward on op's. Just my thoughts as a holder, if I was out I'd go quietly.
Except that I have heard or read stuff about some funds having a pathway to increase 'ethical' portfolios. Having seen the odd largish sell into rises for a while and then the sudden increase today I wondered if this could be what was happening. That is someone offloading perhaps hoping for news soon to sell into but this Fri was some kind of deadline. Total speculation as it makes no sense to be selling now when we're well positioned to really lever off the investments into the Projects at last IMO.
Hi Chesh yes I'm hoping the MOU might be an indication that we can open up on more fronts and pursue the projects simultaneously but I remain cautious. We could equally get an RNS saying KRT has finally kicked off after a delay waiting for a widget to cross the Black Sea :) but on balance of evidence the series of RNS's suggest there are big plans so I'm hopeful while being mindful that silence is no proof of a grand plan about to be unveiled. GLA
It is odd particularly with the talk months ago of accelerating PI. If there is a credible reason for the silence good or bad then so be it but if it is just poor comms then it is unforgivable to give the impression of inactivity. We should have kicked on from 2p not slipped back.
Perhaps 'disagreement' was the wrong choice of word Chesh. I was just trying to understand why we haven't heard more about the next target and wondered if data from WR-B01Za has altered plans on KRT-45_ST, or perhaps lead to a re-think. Maybe I'm overthinking it myself but I noticed that the 28th Feb 'Initial WR-B01Za test results' specifically says that data is being reviewed to optimise the KRT-45_ST but in the 3rd April 'PI Update' and 17th April general 'Operations Update' they don't mention KRT-45_ST. As I said earlier they raised the money to accelerate PI three months, over two months ago they were reviewing data to design KRT and yet here we are none the wiser as to what's happening. I realise they have to be absolutely certain that they're embarking on each well with the maximum COS but this does seem slow. Guess it could be something as simple as new parts or equipment delays.