The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Yes, there is no £12.5m increase in the buyback.
Pre AGM they could only repurchase 10% of their share capital, as per the 7th March buyback RNS;
Pursuant to the 2023 AGM authority, the maximum number of Ordinary Shares that can be bought back by Funding Circle is 36,130,314, representing 10% of Ordinary Shares in issue at today’s date. Following the expiry of the 2023 AGM repurchase authority, or to the extent that Funding Circle meets the limit of that authority prior to the 2024 AGM, Funding Circle will seek further repurchase authority at the 2024 AGM or an earlier General Meeting"
They are seeking authority to repurchase up to 15% of share capital, this gives them headroom for ~53m shares or £25m, whichever limit is reached first.
At the current 10% limit, if they bought 36m shares at an average price of 45p it would cost them £16.2m. They would then be unable to purchase any more... post AGM they won't have this limit.
Because annoyingly there are sellers - one of which just issued a TR1. Zedra Trust's previous TR1 was on 17/08/22 for 14,832,952 shares, todays shows they now hold 13,941,138, so they've reduced by 891,814 shares. Clearly there are also II buyers, it would be nice if one popped through a threshold to give us a clue whether it's a new or existing shareholder. In the meantime, FCH need to step up the buyback back to the 250k levels.
Classic market maker driven false market right now - the advertised spread is showing £19.60-£20, when in reality it's £20 to sell and £19.99 to buy. It appears that they are desperate for shares, likely due to international buyers loading up whilst it's still under the radar. Would be excellent if we could crack the £23 resistance before moving to the main market (and clearly very much deserved when looking at the fundamentals).
Ps. I note Wise is on the verge of breaking £10, truly astonishing variance in the impact of treasury / interest income on market cap growth vs Alpha.
Crikey, that twitter profile is like opening pandora's box. Some crazy Republican's has been accusing FCH of having links to the CCP & wanting their banking license to be blocked / revoked due to them putting the business up for sale. Makes you wonder whether the reason they want to sell is due to political risk to their business upon a potential Trump win? The sooner the US business is disposed of the better!
FCH having to work much harder to get their 280k shares today ;)
Interesting to compare today's announcement with that of Ilika's on 6th December, which said;
"This is a significant milestone as it means that the Goliath solid state pouch cell is now able to match the representative energy density of incumbent lithium-ion pouch cells, achieving an effective energy density of 250 Wh/kg and a capacity of 0.715 Ah."
Vs the RNS today;
"Gelion has achieved a high energy density milestone by fabricating a 395 Wh/kg lithium-sulfur 9.5 Ah pouch cell (commercial cell format). This result represents a c. 60% increase in the energy density (lower weight) compared with current lithium-ion batteries (approximately 250 Wh/kg)."
Ilika ran to £80m market cap on that news, GELN currently sits at £28m (and vs the £154m it IPO'd at a couple of years ago...)
Could easily run back to 50p here IMO.
The market makers take the p*ss on a daily basis here, why LSE permits uncrossing trades of 18 shares at 6.08p worth a grand total of £1.22 is anyone's guess. It's mickey mouse behaviour done to manipulate the closing price and could easily be fixed by put a minimum value on UT's of at least £10k.
But yes, we've just got to ignore the low volume nonsense. So far this calendar year we haven't had a trading day breach 1m volume (~£60k). Total volume year to date is 13.3m shares. Contrast this to the 3 days after the LCM funding was confirmed last August when 10.6m shares changed hands.
IMO we'll breach that in a day when quantum lands, and if a settlement was to appear then all bets are off!
Not sure it matters too much given the £5m market cap...
"There can be no certainty that a Transaction will be concluded; however, given the significant processing infrastructure in the region, the Company is confident of receiving multiple commercial offers."
Market makers scared stiff with a fake 17% spread, volume of the charts and easily the highest ever recorded. Bullish signs IMO.
Very different feel here today, shares rising on every buy... Does very much look like yesterday may have been the end of the seller. Fingers crossed we can now push higher, volume has been excellent.
It is, and even more bizarre to report them on the day they announce the uplisting! I'm hoping that the propsectus will give some detail on number of shares held by PDMR's / staff, as it's a bit of an unknown right now. On that note, it would have been nice if they had disclosed how many shares / unvested options the MD was still holding.
Couple of quarterly data points should land in the next week or two; shareholder movements & average cash balances / interest rates for Q1. Interesting to see where shares head in the next couple of weeks as the change approaches.
Resistance is a 2.49p, just needs a bit of buying volume to get through and it should move much higher IMO.
I think there is a good chance of that happening Koolhead. Resistance at £23 has been insurmountable since it was first tested in August 2021, when that is broken it should provide a major technical boost. Not having the quote driven, market maker controlled SETSqx system meddling with the price should provide a lot of positives, worth reiterating that it is currently almost impossible to buy share in Alpha if you are based outside the UK, you can place bids in the daily auctions but good luck getting filled for any size. All of that changes come next month and I suspect a lot of new liquidity will enter the market.
Ah, likely from 26 mins onwards on this video; https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=8fvuZ94J1jk
The CEO talks about an speculative model where the QP 'got a bit excited' and put a middle case NPV of $242m on the open pit alone. However, this is then qualified by stating that CAPEX would be prohibitive for a stand alone project, but if you gave 40% of the economic value to a concentrator to process the ore & use their facilities, then you would be left with an NPV of say $120m with only $10m needed for CAPEX.
I can well imagine someone like CAML being attracted by economics like this given they have the processing facilities...
Based on above & today's RNS, I struggle to see the CEO entertaining offers of less than 10% of the $120m NPV speculated above. It also wouldn't surprise me if he was to get substantially more than this.
Worth pointing out that CAML currently produce 13-14k tonnes of copper per annum, so 100kt+ of new inventory would move the needle for them.
Market makers trying really hard to shake shares out here - the usual LSE nonsense where 2 big buys are absorbed but a couple of moderate sells immediately have an impact. Time to hold until June and see where shares can get to.
@David6576, where did the CEO state 40-80 times undervalued?
Looking at the recent newsflow, this does look very interesting given it's trading at ~30% of early 2023 highs and there has only been 10% dilution since then. Need to do more research, but it appears a maiden JORC resource is due imminently? The $500k grant from BHP certainly looks very interesting & I like that the CEO owns >10% of the company and they have only raised once in the last 2 years. Today's news could be the catalyst needed for a re-rate, volume already 12x the 20 day average...
History here https://www.jpmorganchase.com/about/our-business/historical-prime-rate
Been above 7% since Nov22, average is 5.86% since March 21.
Yes definitely an interesting day, top work on the CEO engagement & confirming timelines.
It's at the date of expropriation as per the BIT, which is 15/03/21 when the mining laws were changed and MMDR2021 was introduced. Gold was ~$1750 back then. The flipside is that interest on any award accrues from that point. Usually they apply the US prime rate, which has sat at 8.5% since July 2023...
Good to see the Stocko coverage, PI ownership here is abnormally low (HL & II clients only own ~2% of shares) so any sustained PI buying should be a favourable wind.
Alpha currently 2 analysts providing coverage, Liberum and one other that I can't locate the name of. Liberum are valuing the treasury income of a PE of 3 with the cash flow discounted at 9%... Most 250 stocks around Alpha's level have 6-10 analysts covering them, so we should expect to see several 'initiation of coverage' stories in H2. Where they place their price targets is likely dependent on how much info Alpha want to provide them, if they can get hold of some 5 year forecasts then look out!
Kitrash, do yourself a favour and read some of the posts today before making such unnecessary comments. For one thing, the resource size in today's RNS is now 7.2moz vs 6.7moz in prior releases, so that is relevant and highly material new information for a £12m market cap.
I'm glad that the collective view agrees with my first impression at 7.30am, companies that go into these scenarios like a bull in a China shop aren't going to come off well. It needs to be managed in a highly professional manner, which is why you need experts like LCM driving things.
It's all moving in the right direction as far as I'm concerned and we are steadily building a solid community of shareholders who hold a similar opinion. The next key date is 2nd May for the Bhukia auction, between now and then there is a window for a surprise RNS which could be utterly transformational given the market cap. Impossible to say what the likelihood of a deal being reached is, but I'd say it's a fair bit higher than it was last autumn. If no deal is reached, then we'll have the NoA and claim quantum.
Nice to see the first £20 on the L2 order book spread, still trading at an EV/FCF yield of 16.3% & an EV/ Equity ratio of 2.8x vs the IPO to end 2022 average of 6.2x. A return to the historic average provides a share price target of £36.60 (and a much more sensible EV/FCF yield of 7.5%)...