Member Info for SharkSaber

Climate Activists are the biggest hypocrites of their 'environmental religion' since they are not really contributing to her well being if they still used paper products, gas for space heating, hot showers and refrigeration, pen and pencils, driving a car, staying in a house where a significant resource sacrifice fron Nature is used to construct their dwellings etc. They'll have to practice what they'd preached and live like true cavemen if they really care that much for the world environment.

Mili and the Labour gang are pretty much beholden and subservient to their climate change masters and backers.

As the Labour party's renewables choir ascends to a melodious crescendo, the O@G audience sitting amongst the crowd began pelting a barrage of water bottles, soda cans and other projectiles onto the stage with a harmonious boo. I happened to see our bod member DL hurling a big, heavy 2 liter bottle of Coke right at the center stage crooner Ed Miliband lol

Superimpose Ed Miliband as the lead singer with the rest of the Labour cabinet singing in chorus along to the wonderful tune of " Oh the glorious renewables" lol.

The collective UK O@G industry should take the cue from nature's wildlife. When green pastures become scarce ( artificially engineered by Labour green fanatics ), take the hint of the wildebeests and giddy up on all four legs en masse and migrate elsewhere to graze for grass.

Lol that's bribery in the profound and the common folk wouldn't be too happy about it. Secondly the bod would rather teach em renewable fanatics a hard lesson in national coffers poverty as a result of their crazy fossil fuels manifesto. That would certainly embarrass and bring down the reputation of the entire Labour cabinet more effectively than to grease their palms with million dollar severance packages.

If Serica is interested in growing in the UK, their future investments should be headed long term into the renewables dept as Labour energy manifesto is completely hostile to fossil fuels. If Serica ventures out of the country, they could acquire an energy company who are still into fossil fuels but making the transition gradually to renewables overtime. Positioning themselves ready for sustainable profits over the long haul is paramount to the financial health of the company and to the satisfaction of LTHs. The bod has some window of time to make it happen. Keeping my fingers crossed for future good news!

If a hedge fund is increasing short positions at the recent,at what point of sp downward do they expect to cover back? The critical point would be up to 100p most likely. It would be silly to think that the stock is going all the way down to zero which is impossible given Centrica's robust balance sheet. So there's likely a bottom somewhere very close by here, given how far it has fallen fron its historical high point.

If I'm not mistaken, the company derives most of it's revenue through selling gas at retail prices to electricity consumers , some through renewable staples and nuclear power generation through their EDF stake and very little of their revenue comes from crude oil prices, which should partially shield the company from sustaining the full strength of a downward impact had if it's revenues were more oil price reliant. Would better appreciate it if they would keep their cash on hand to make potential acquisitions in the future rather than just spending it to prop up the share price instead that's under the onslaught of shorts and pessimistic selling. And if possible up the divi to about 5% for some decent shareholder returns. Not saying that this is the ideal, but I would be happy enough if such could happen.

Looks like the bod paid attention to the message board here. Good job on the collective 'complaining' together lol.

Assura Assura oh my precious stock, whom does thou suffer under the weighty hand of shorts at 42p repeatedly? And may thou gain the mightiest of strength and momentum to push thyself out of the shackles of shorters and humble them down aground into the dust of despair and bury them way beneath the Earth's crust into the molten core!

The purest ESG compliance would be as follows:

(1) Don't ever cut down trees for wood for housing, paper and furniture.

(2) Don't ever use fossil fuels or natural gas to drive vehicles, space heating, refrigeration, air conditioning, plastics manufacturing etc. And so much more down the list of don'ts as well.

Conclusively, every human on Earth should be made to live like a true caveman and don't ever exploit anything resource wise on Earth for human civilization use. And that will definitely save the planet much faster than transitioning into renewables by 2050 lol.

I still remembered the conversational firestorm that you just laid out there and caused quite a stir within the message board too. So hence I'm just speculating on a little optimism here, based on how folks here have done a wonderful balance sheet analysis and doing a little analysis technically on market sentiment and the "logic" behind it that's driving the bearish sentiment that's all. Enjoy your day sir!

Notsofastyou: Don't thank me lol. Serica is the one who did that for all of us. They did all of us a favor here by the way with a very positive presentation. Even better if you presumed that shorts have very little to do with the turnaround here. Enjoy the ride up mate!

Thankfully my hunch came spot on to everyone's relief. I didn't expect the turnaround to come in so quickly as other local O@G counters are only just slightly up but still languishing in the doldrums.

Looks like the about turn was done by shorts covering back even though there was no shorting info available for SQZ. Hopefully the rebound momentum could be sustained from here onwards, we most definitely do need that bullish boost for sure.

It's oddly comforting to know that I'm not alone in my suspicion of such unusual fundamental logic distortion. I have an itchy need to at least try to understand what was in the bears' minds to pull the trigger hard on the downside, even if it's beyond rationale lol. Apart from collective panic selling due to long unwinding positions, you don't just put a significant amount of short money on the line increasingly unless if some sort of fundamentally significantly bearish news or collective bearish research grabs your attention and holds your conviction stronger to double down on the plunge even as there are news indicating for example that OPEC members are collectively cutting down on production supply here. And the plunge persists despite the impending welcome news that interest rates too might be cut down the line. That's two major bullish headlines that might hold the Brent support line but was completely disregarded by the market here on a whim.

I know many LTHs will choose to ignore the noise and ride out the rocky storm till the skies clear up. It's definitely certain that in the progress of energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables, the immediate energy demand still needs to be met by readily available means of energy be it crude oil or natural gas. Wind and solar are too intermittent to be relied on for power readiness at the moment.

So most likely the market might have gone too far looking into the future as if oil and gas is no longer a necessity to power the nations worldwide but has already been replaced by renewables in all energy usage depts. That's my biggest hunch about it here.

Courdelion, which is? Market irrationality as the simplest answer?

Hi there surprised. With that said as per what you'd just mentioned there, so conclusion wise it seems to be that oil derivatives trading apart from spot physical trading can be distorted and manipulated to suit volatility demand easily at the snap of a finger. Sounds eerily similar to rampant money printing by the Federal Reserve vs the gold standard in sorts. Hence analogically speaking , if fiat money ( oil derivatives ) "reality" vs gold standard ( oil macro fundamentals) are at odds with each other as of the current situation , which side will ultimately win in the arm wrestling match between market optimism vs pessimism then? They say that long term fundamentals will always prevail, but given the current technology of market trading and information awareness enhanced by potential AI, would that always hold true? Or has the 'common sense' between market and fundamental logic been irreversibly altered from then forth I wonder?

I can't help but having a nagging feeling that the oil price plunge may not be fundamentally rooted in the macro sense at all, but there seemingly appears to be intentional market manipulation footprints from big time parties who might be vested in seeing that the sps of Brent and WTI crude stays below a certain low point for the long haul. China slowing down on oil consumption is pretty much overemphasized on the bearish side and has been the focal point of fossil fuel energy pessimism, but I don't really buy that piece of news somewhat as China has a huge population, and it might not be buying crude oil directly from the international market but most probably Russia given the cheap market price it had to bear sanctions wise, and helping out it's communist neighbor strategically as well. Unless if China itself is recently pushing hard on getting most of it's oil consumption vehicles rapidly switched to EVs large scale or something. Other developing emerging third world countries are mostly using fossil fuel burning vehicles and didn't have the economic wealth and scale yet to be going all renewable on vehicle usage. Shipping and flying worldwide are still heavily dependent on oil consumption unless fuel technology and efficiency improves enough to allow them to use renewable power to move about in the future. Oil petrochemicals are still used for plastic utensils, wind turbines , fertilizers etc. And yet I haven't seen any replaceable substance yet to produce them albeit sustainably.

So there's still a significant usage of liquid black gold worldwide as far as I know in respect to all that was mentioned above, it's in the dept of power generation and vehicle energy usage that crude oil is slowly losing its market share to renewables overtime in the future, but I don't think that the decline of crude oil usage in those depts just comes at such rapid pace of change just like that, of which the big time bears are possibly looking into and discounting the SP way way down beyond it's current fair price so to speak. The oil majors and the Saudis most definitely are interested to see rising oil prices, but with so much 'suppression' of oil prices heading upwards most evidently shown in the charts, and it appears persistently so at the key point of $75 and $80 upwards as critical first and second support lines were broken through successively and with very heavy bearish pounding too apparently. I smelled a heavy scent of intentional artificial downward playing , or either there's something more to the macro fundamentals that I'm not aware of other than the market movement confusing headlines of war breakout and ceasefire in the Middle East, strategic petroleum reserves constant fluctuation and China's lack of oil appetite which I think is bs anyway.

If anyone could shed much more macro fundamental insight here to my knowledge to make sense of a confusing, constant downward oil price slide I would most certainly be interested to hear about it.

The scenario right now could be looked at both ways from a sp perspective:

(1) Oil price keeps crashing down and stays below $70 would negate the EPL after two quarters as had been declared by hmg previously. ( Well that's if they honor such an agreement...IF)

(2) Oil price would bottom out and start rising upward again to a higher consolidation point in the future.

I know most people here are LTHs, including myself, but sometimes getting a fuller picture of things even from a technical perspective 'fundamental sense' would shed more light into things better. In the most recent financial report detailing the worst case scenario of profitability , Serica had claimed that it could still remain profitable at $70 per barrel, but of course the profit margin returns wouldn't be too handsome, but still the company is able to generate a positive return marginally or higher at that oil price level.

Hence SQZ is pretty well positioned for either possibility,and the 9p divi issuing maintained by the company despite all odds thrown at it by hmg's ridiculous tax levies shows the company's financial confidence and conviction that the market had seriously misunderstood it's business prospects. Large institutional funds and probably hedge funds looking to move in for a sp plunge kill are the culprits that kept selling off the SP upon news of a poor quarter, that's typical of their very fickle shareholding attitude especially for long holding funds. Other NS O@Gs have issued out divis despite seeing their sps plunging hard, otherwise the most sensible thing to do is to cut it during a stormy sector season in play here largely thanks to the clowns in charge.

So far the SP is holding up strong above 110p, thanks in part to the CFO's lot of purchase confidence here. The cards in hand are gradually turning upward into Serica's favor slowly. Let's be patient and keep the faith going while our bod gets to work.

The hardest part about getting a good entry into a beaten down stock is how much lower could it go before it looks up. We're getting pretty close there that's my hunch. Algorithmic institutional selling en masse on bad profit news just adds to the noise of things here. Let's see whether it gets below my predicted bottom point of 110p. If not the next major support line would be 100p holding.

Even better still, since Brent price had came down so low here at current , isn't there a downward price cap close at hand to be able to negate the EPL if it stays that low for 2 quarters? It's already reaching near there and might as well reach that EPL negation target here. Then things might recover upward slowly from then onwards maybe.