Groundhog Day4 Nov 2021 11:04
Catching up on yesterday's news and the reactions on here after a busy 3 days.
To me, it seems we are once again in a position where shareholders have the choice between supporting the company or supporting BHP. Both choices have multiple outcomes.
If we as shareholders support the company, in my opinion we are either voting for:
1) the company continuing to drill and take Alpala to production through debt financing and/or royalty streaming, with some but minimal dilution. I believe that NM wants to turn SOLG into a major miner and continues to have considerable influence over the company and its direction. Fair play to Nick. For shareholders this will mean growth is unlocked through positive drilling results and news of how Alpala will be financed. I think it will be a bumpy ride but long term the payday will be substantial. Many on here are not willing to wait, and neither will BHP. If this is how this plays out I think BHP/NCM will sell their stake in the company as to addicknt's point, they aren't going to care about a paltry stake in a company they have no control over. This may well be very painful for SOLG.
Or
2) the company being sold for what it (and most likely Nick) perceives to be 'fair value'. Again, this will take time and the road will be bumpy. Positive drilling results will unlock growth and help defend a lowball bid. Personally if this does happen I see us selling to a third party in order to give BHP a much deserved bloody nose.
If we as shareholders choose to support BHP and we end up with a BOD who are loyal to them there are two possible scenarios:
1) the company and its assets are carved up for BHP and NCM and sold for some of the speculative lowballs thrown around here - 45p/50p. This is the quick buck crowd's preferred option.
Or
2) we are diluted into oblivion to fund Alpala, allowing BHP and/or NCM to obtain more of the company (they have deeper pockets than old Nick) and then snap up the whole thing for very cheap. I don't think anyone wants this option on this board.
Heading into the AGM, SOLG has banked a flurry of drilling updates which it hopes will give the share price a much needed boost and bolster shareholder support. If that sounds familiar it's because it is - this is almost identical to the situation we found ourselves in last year.
Personally, I think supporting BHP in the hope of a 45p takeover and a quick payday comes with enormous risk, because they may simply decide to go down the dilution route outlined above.
I stated on here earlier this week that there is much going on behind the scenes that us PIs can only speculate about. Well now we know. It's messy and the next few weeks will be fascinating.
I am loathe to support the current BOD after a frustrating year, poor corporate communication, and slow progress. But ultimately I think we have little choice.
SM