RE: New Edison Research Note21 Oct 2025 12:58
Project NPVs suggest a valuation of 4.82p/share
In March, KEFI calculated an updated project NPV5 for Tulu Kapi of c US$690m at construction start, at a conservative long-term gold price of US$2,400/oz, of which KEFI’s c 80% share is worth US$552m, or £411m (4.33p/share), pro rata. Its 15% interests in Jibal Qutman and Hawiah potentially add a further 0.48p/share to this figure, to take the total to 4.82p/share.
Valuation: Current metals prices suggest 11.19p/share
At Edison’s long-term gold price of US$1,866/oz (in real, 2025 US$ terms), we calculate that Tulu Kapi (plus its 15% interest in Saudi Arabian joint venture, GMCO) is capable of generating average annual free cash flows to KEFI of c £100.2m in FY29–34 (cf £99.4m previously), making average (maximum potential) dividends of 0.50p/share per year possible. Discounting this flow of dividends to present value at a discount rate of 10% per year suggests a valuation for KEFI of 1.59p/share (cf 1.65p previously) after the exercise of broker warrants. An underground mine adds a further 0.20p/share (12.5%) to this valuation. However, at current metals prices ( US$4,000/oz Au, US$10,604/t Cu, US$2,933/t Zn and US$52.50/oz Ag), our average annual free cash flow estimate rises almost three times to £295.2m per year and our valuation by 4.5x to 7.21p now (plus a further 1.01p/share for the underground mine) and to 9.66p (plus 1.53p) in FY29. For buyers of the shares now, this implies an internal rate of return on their investment of 47.7% in sterling terms to FY37.