Member Info for sharebare2

As a long‑term holder of GCM, and broadly bullish on where the company is heading, I’ve struggled like many to reconcile the current ~8p share price with what has been a consistently positive news flow. In the past, announcements of this nature would have driven the price sharply higher, so the stagnation feels counter‑intuitive at first glance.

However, I think a big part of the confusion comes from focusing on share price rather than market capitalisation, and not fully adjusting for the scale of dilution over the years.

If I’m not mistaken, GCM now has roughly 10x more shares in issue than it did during the “heyday” when the share price traded around £3. When you normalise for that:

8p today is effectively ~80p in old money

£3 back then equates to ~30p today

Talk of £10 a share now is really equivalent to ~£1 under the old share structure

Viewed through that lens, the current valuation looks far less anomalous. In fact, an “old money” price of ~80p arguably makes sense given where GCM actually is today — strong progress and improving fundamentals, but still no final green light / firm confirmation that removes execution risk entirely.

I also think expectations haven’t fully reset post‑dilution. Many holders (understandably) still anchor to historic price levels without adjusting for the expanded share count, which can make current levels feel artificially depressed when they’re not.

Until GCM delivers that final, irreversible confirmation, the market appears reluctant to assign a materially higher market cap — regardless of how positive the trajectory looks. That doesn’t invalidate the long‑term bull case, but it does explain why the price isn’t behaving like it did in the past.

In short: the share price hasn’t stood still as much as it feels — our frame of reference just hasn’t caught up with the new capital structure.

The fund raise was done to take advantage of the pre election hype

It sets up GCM to be fully funded and have cash for negotiations from a position of strength not desperation!

The gov can’t “wait us out” and make us sell the licence on the cheap … we can wait till well into 2027!

We are not desperate and therefore prone for a cheap takeover

We all know the the only viable answer is Phulbari

No other mine is anywhere near ready

And no one else will fund a huge coal project

And how can they reject open pit at Phulbari

And start on another mine when we have ticked all the right boxes and waited this long with a legal binding contract signed by the same gov that may be winning now … imagine the arbitration and hit to investor confidence !

24/48 hours till we know who’s won… not a weekend to be out :)

One question regarding this “other mine” option … tell me who is going to fund such a mega project or multiple mines.

The Energy plan clearly stated they wanted to increase domestic coal use by 40 fold.

So what other mine or multiple mines will meet this target and who will fund such project ?

The west are pulling out of coal

Bangla are skint

India ? They are already looking at voiding and cancelling previous deals on other project with India. And let’s not forget the fact India are sheilding hasina who is wanted for crimes against humanity in Bangla and curruption related to energy projects !

That leaves China … the same China whose state owned powerchina is left on hold with Phulbari ?

Is China really going to entertain another mine project !?

Unless I’ve missed soemthing ….

£3m cash raised in less than 2 months

Funded well into 2027 and cash in bank ready for any negotiations

Share price still up 40% this year

Elections today

BNP - pro domestic coal and the party who gave us approval last time - set to win

Polo shareholders clearly lost out when Polo delisted, and for many that felt like a hard pill to swallow - and there’s no sugar‑coating that.

But Polo was an illiquid, persistently undervalued wrapper whose fate ultimately depended on GCM anyway.

Allowing Polo to fade avoided years of further dilution and value leakage at the holding‑company level, while concentrating capital, patience and strategic focus on GCM — the asset with genuine transformational upside if approval is ever granted.

In that sense, Polo was sacrificed so the underlying asset (Phulbari via GCM) could survive at all. It wasn’t painless, but without that decision, there’s a strong argument GCM itself wouldn’t still exist today.

As awful as it sounds … some eggs needs to be cracked to make an omelet … and yes I too was a polo shareholder!

Belive me I trust NO ONE

But I also belive Tang is a very shrew man and has played a total blinder in keeping GCM afloat during Hasinas reign … we could have been wiped out many times over the last 12 or so years … yet somehow … we are still here … days away from … well from whatever the outcome will be !

GLA

@jamess.

Polo absorbed funding pressure and insulated GCM from short‑term sentiment during years when Phulbari was politically frozen and the market was hostile.

Private support reduced the need for panic placings, avoided forced asset sales, and allowed management to stay patient rather than react to every rumour or negative headline.

That shielding didn’t create value — it preserved the option value, which is why GCM is still here today to benefit from a more constructive backdrop.

Polo’s delisting is often framed negatively, but in reality it was a net positive for GCM.

It removed a weak, illiquid AIM investment vehicle that the market persistently undervalued, while allowing Tang to support GCM privately through patient capital, loans and board continuity during years when the project was politically stalled and public markets offered no support.

Lets be clear - without Polo operating behind the scenes, GCM would almost certainly not have survived multiple funding droughts.

Crucially, Polo fading away didn’t strip value from GCM — it insulated it from market noise and kept the Phulbari option alive long enough for today’s improving backdrop to even exist.

Tang has far more to gain by leaving GCM listed. It keeps risk distributed, preserves political credibility, avoids underwriting a binary outcome personally, and allows upside to compound after clarity emerges. A take‑private only becomes rational once uncertainty falls — not while optionality is still being established.

Keeping GCM listed doesn’t just spread risk — it widens the menu of credit available.

With an estimated £2.5–3m of cash post‑placings, GCM is now in a much stronger position to fend off any opportunistic private takeover. The balance‑sheet pressure that typically enables low‑ball bids has been materially reduced, removing any “forced sale” narrative.

Being fully funded through a potentially pivotal political period gives both the board and shareholders leverage — meaning any approach would need to properly reflect upside optionality, not just current uncertainty.

We all knew this was never going to be a smooth, straight‑line move upwards. Expect market games, unexpected news, and plenty of noise against the backdrop of an unstable country dealing with a political hot potato.

As a long‑term holder — who has written this share off many times in the past (no‑mining rhetoric, PMs saying “never”, no NEDS until the last min and plenty of other reasons to walk away) — this finally feels different. For me, now is not the time to lose conviction and jump ship.

I think we can all agree that one way or another - we will finally know the outcome very soon.

Step 1 - BNP to win

Step 2 - Clear policy on Phulbari

GLA

By raising before the election, GCM removed execution risk at a critical moment, locked in funding certainty, and avoided the danger of having to raise in a weaker or more volatile market post election - which has an uncertain outcome.

Yes, the price could have been higher post‑election — but it also could have been materially lower, or unavailable altogether. Given the opportunity‑driven nature of the current backdrop, de‑risking the balance sheet ahead of any political inflection is a rational, conservative move rather than a lack of confidence.

Yes, the second placing was unexpected, but in context it actually makes sense. For the first time in years, the macro and political backdrop for GCM is improving: domestic coal is back implicitly in BNP policy, northern Bangladesh is a stated development priority, the Teesta mega‑project is moving with PowerChina (who also partners with GCM), and energy security/import substitution is now mainstream political language. Against that backdrop, the January raise looked like survival capital; the February raise looks more like positioning for what is to come....

Management can engage lawyers, advisers, lobbyists, and government stakeholders from a position of financial stability

Strip away the noise and this Daily Star article is quietly bullish for GCM. It admits Bangladesh’s entire future energy plan depends on a huge ramp‑up in domestic coal to escape import dependence a 40 fold increase ! from 0.6 m to 24m tonnes per day !

That is direct from the Govs own Energy and Power System Master Plan (EPSMP 2025)

— yet offers no realistic way to do that.... without Phulbari - the only project that will provide that level of coal at scale and ready to go.

The article claims global funding for coal projects is becoming difficult, but that argument doesn’t really apply to GCM. With PowerChina already on board, financing for Phulbari is effectively de‑risked — the funding problem is for every other coal project, not this one. If the government doesn’t green‑light Phulbari, a simple question follows: who exactly is going to fund any alternative domestic coal project? Bangladesh can’t afford to do it itself, Western capital is exiting coal, and that realistically leaves China. But why would China back a new, unproven project when a state‑owned giant like PowerChina is already lined up and waiting at Phulbari?

the bottleneck is political decision‑making - timing - and making sure the people will shout for Phulbari - rather than reject it!

The article unintentionally highlights a glaring contradiction: Bangladesh needs domestic coal at scale, and GCM owns the only asset capable of delivering it. That’s not a negative — it’s exactly the setup

Read between the lines - the Gov are painting themselves into a Corner - to say there is NO OTHER Choice - other than Phulbari !!

We all know the word Phulbari is contentious, shaped by an emotionally charged history and deep sensitivities around what happened. It’s hard to imagine any serious election candidate risking backlash by even uttering the name.

Instead, we’ll hear the familiar cycle: promises of reform, faster growth, better living standards, improvements across every aspect of life. Read closely though—there will be plenty of what, but almost no how.

First come the promises, designed to win hearts and votes. Only after election does the reality surface: the question of how all this is to be funded. And at that point, Phulbari quietly transforms—from a political liability into the solution. Not the problem, but the saviour.

Only us who are so closely into this can spot the small messages and therefore hold a position before the cat is finally out of the bag ! And it’s not long now !

I put all sorts of questions into CHATGPT :)

heres some info below:

✅ Earliest Confirmed Appearance of Jarvis Securities in GCM Resources’ Shareholder Register

The first time Jarvis Securities plc (Asset Management Arm) appears in any publicly accessible GCM Resources ownership breakdown is from the ownership snapshot published by Simply Wall St, which lists:

Jarvis Securities plc, Asset Management Arm

4,497,843 shares (≈ 1.35% of GCM)

[simplywall.st]

This dataset represents the share register as of the latest update in their ownership model, which—based on the timestamp provided—is no earlier than:

➡ Late 2025 to Early 2026

Why?

The Simply Wall St ownership page states that shareholders had been diluted in the past year, and the data was generated from filings current to January 2026.

[simplywall.st]

There is no appearance of Jarvis Securities in earlier shareholder summaries (e.g., MarketScreener’s GCM shareholder list), which contain detailed major/minor holders but do not list Jarvis at all.

What a year

It seems like we are now in the fine stretch of getting the approval

The thing that’s on my mind now is how much this share price is going to play havoc on my nerves

The big swings spikes and pull backs

I’ve been asking ChatGPT all sorts of price expections based on all sorts of scenarios… and I have no CLUE when I should sell … taking what I need… missing out on the higher highs….

Holding on at the lows is one thing …. Knowing when to exit is another

Glad we are on our way tho and I sincerely wish all long term holders like my self the very best of luck on the way out too….

The BNP candidate said Phulbari is one of the poorest states in Bangladesh and if he is elected he will do everything in his power to fix that ….

How about starting with a 15 billion project , a new mining town with housing and schools :)

How long are we funded to ?

Does anyone have a fair guess?

We all know the last fundraise for £1m was only ever a stop gap.

Of course with the election announced we all hoped for a higher SP to allow for less dilution if more funds are needed before any solid news.

I guess it’s now a sit and wait.

It’s safe to say this is no longer an IF but a WHEN green light is finally given

From Point 18 in the BNP plan , regarding energy

It clearly says

“steps will be taken to explore and utilise neglected gas and mineral reserves to reduce import dependencies”

https://www.bnpbd.org/assets/pdf/31%20Points%20English%202.5k.pdf

A win for BNP is a green light for GCM

And BNP are the most likely to win, meeting China and helping the current GOV deal with the US trade tarrifs.

As per the GCM RNS… it’s a matter of WHEN not IF ….

Long term holder here 10+ years

I’ve used the lows to bring my average down and build a nice holding to set me up for early retirement.

Through all the ups and downs and drama here I have to thank some of the key members of the board who have kept us up to date on news flows … stand out is Searcher !

I’m also gobsmacked that we are still a going concern after all these years under Hasina blockade!

And the cherry on the cake….. POLO making a return… which I also still have a nice holding in.

I really do believe that by the December AGM we will be popping champagne ! And I will do my best to attend !

Genuine question from a LTH here... I have no idea who or why anyone would sell GCM at this stage and price when we are so close.

LTH who have held through thick and thin over the years are clearly not about to jump on the 11th hour at this price?

Who else? who would have brought this stock at 1 or 2p and then decide to sell now ?

i dont understand lol

If Tang wanted to take GCM (using Polo or otherwise) he had many opportunities - way before Hasina was kicked out and GCM was on its knees with no hope in sight.... why wait this close to then come in for a takeover and rock the boat.....

Does anyone know if existing Polo Shareholders will get their original shares back ?

I got an email from Hargreaves only a few months ago stating Polo were no more...

RNS on the GCM page to say that POLO are looking to RELIST on the stock exchange.

does anyone know if this is the case - will we get our original shares back ?

I got an email from Hargreaves only a few months ago saying POLO are no longer an entity .... :(