Member Info for shamI89

Add Log administrator to that list as well as according to Gary Newman they did say that they would make a decision after H2. Normally you get day traders trying to trade shares like this but when we have major shareholders dumping there is no way normal day traders can absorb that sort of volume. We have a few traders like Deltalo Etal trying their best to lure in private investors but it is not working as it can only go one way.

It is not shorters but people like you who try to dupe people into buying through baseless ramping. Shorters only attack the shares when they spot a weakness and I have hardly see them go wrong. Equity is worthless at this stage in my opinion as if it did have any value major investor won't be selling now.

Lol wish I had taken the short as equity is worthless at this point, H2 can just produce enough cash to cover daily costs and interest payments. Once you take out royalty payments you have got nothing much left to pay to bondholders not an ideal position to be in once you have got 100 millions to pay. As they say "cant pay we will take it away".

As a new management team, we have been reassessing the most efficient strategy to create value for our stakeholders based on operating data since First Gas in 2022 and updated technical evaluation of the risks and rewards across the portfolio. In addition to the established Saturn Banks production infrastructure position, the portfolio comprises high permeability conventional reservoirs as well as tighter gas reservoirs which require stimulation. Whilst the latter have clear potential, the conventional fields can deliver more compelling returns on capital with lower development risk. Strategically, therefore, we plan to prioritise these opportunities, from the Western Cluster (Blythe and Elgood) to the Southern Cluster (Kelham, Abbeydale, Orrell) and the Central Cluster, where our latest technical work indicates conventional discovered gas development potential at Grafton and Tenby.

Well I have pasted part of RNS,*tighter gas reservoirs which require stimulation"

"them positive RNS" are not so "positive" as bondholders agreed to "short-term" amendments and secondly H2 would only produce 32 mscf even after simulation and they would have to shut in H1. In my opinion bondholders would have agreed to restructure the bonds if H2 was a success. 32 mscf would only produce enough income to cover the costs and meet interest payments. Secondly whole thing looks suspicious first they announced a "technical issue" with the drill, then identified and rectified that "technical issue" and announced that it is only producing "20mscf" but production would be expanded to "40 mscf". We had an RNS yesterday telling us that H2 is only producing "32 mscf" and they have to shut in H1 well because of water issue. In my opinion H2 can have some technical issues in not so distant future.

They hold 25.8% stock and would want to sell before they face inevitable equity wipe out. They said they will wait for H1/H2 drill before making any move.

Most of these buys are day traders and guess what will they do if they don't get their 5/10% tomorrow. This seller has dragged price from 5.15 to nearly 3 and is not slowing down. I suspect it is Log administrator and it holds 25.8%

Meanwhile 100000 seller is back and has offloaded some more shares.

A lot of day-traders have taken positions and would say anything to exit at a profit. As things stand bond restructuring could lead to equity wipe out. Current cash is just enough to make the payment in September and cover couple of interest payment.

Ironically you have missed out on worst scenario, it is only running one well and that well is producing just enough income to pay the interest and seems to have fair share of technical problems too. Bondholders are in control here, they can pull the plug and seize assets or restructure the bonds if company raises money. Both of these options lead to equity wipe out.

Dont think we have enough volume to absorb that sort of sell and cant see them doing it without smashing the bid to absolute bottom.

Seller could be LOG administrators which had 25.4% shares, they did say they would wait until H1 to see how it goes operationally before making any decision.Funnily enough share-price started plummeting after June 25 update.If it indeed is them than no day-trader has a chance of turning a profit as any rise would be heavily sold into.

That is lincense requirement I think.I cant see how this company can fund another drill.

How can it be 86.6% when last quarterly coupon payment was missed? Not only that company needs to pay LOG 10 millions in September and unrestricted cash balance is 14 millions.

Have taken large positions in anticipation of a "dead cat bounce" and have provided background seller to dump his shares more aggressively. Equity is toast as bonds are trading at 45%.

Actual revenue is much lower once we take-out cost of sales, interest on bonds and cost of sale. There is no way this company can pay bondholders next year. Now we know why negotiations regarding bond restructuring are taking longer than expected.

So they have spent 12 millions plus four months revenue on a drill. But I thought drill was only going them 15 millions as someone mentioned.

Taken direct from RNS

"Production is now initially set at 20 mmscf/d and will be steadily built up to full rate over the coming week as the Saturn Banks Pipeline System is further dewatered"

So they have missed the target by 25%, it can only implicate that dewatering is not going according to plan or situation is worst that they thought. But cash was 32 millions in March plus they had four months revenue , where has the money gone?

Situation is bad than I thought , H2 initial target was 42 after stimulation about three weeks ago and it has stabilized at 32 mmscf while they will shut H1. That is not end of it unrestricted cash is 14 millions.They need to pay 10 millions to LOG and at the end of next year also need to pay current bondholders.

But did they not use same words for shutting other two wells which were uneconomical.For arguments sake lets say this well remains shut for 3 months how will it affect cash flow?