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DR777 - purely in my opinion only, but it does seem to be following the same trajectory as when LO were building up their very large position in SEE. I could be wrong and frequently are, but it just seems to be more than coincidence that this has followed what could be two potentially transformative RNS'.

IMVHO -this classic II buying at the moment. They put in a huge order to the MMs who drop the price to get as many shares as they can to fill that order at the cheapest price, that's the reason for you to be able to sell all your holdings. Exactly the same thing happened when LO were buying. It sucks, but it's the way they do business. Depending on how many shares they have asked for this could go on for a few days or a few weeks.

Keep the faith, and don't let those greedy MMs and IIs get your shares cheaply.

As said, all IMVHO and DYOR as always.

PART 4

I gave up then. Too much brown stuff to wipe off my face!

PART 3
Total dominance in the RFQs In the graph below, on next page, we have tried to illustrate Smart Eye’s dominance during the past two years, by summarizing all OEM and platform wins (excl. extensions), according to Redeye’s best guesses. The only officially announced customers up until today are BMW and Geely. We believe the two unknown German OEMs won in Q1’20 are related to two of Smart Eye’s first three customers, won in 2014-2017. One should also note that the 15 Smart Eye wins are not, in our view, necessarily equal to 15 platforms, since e.g. the Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi Alliance shares platforms.
While Smart Eye and Seeing Machines (SEE) do not report design wins and business wins in the exact same way, we assume SEE’s nine programs are based on six platforms for its six OEMs. As can be seen in the graph above, win rates were roughly 50/50 until Q1’19 where it was a tie of 6 vs. 6 wins. Then, SEE hit a wall and has treaded water ever since, while Smart Eye during the same period has gone from 6 to 15 wins. On the timeline above, we highlight SEE’s modified partnership with Xilinx from the Capital Markets Day in November 2019, which was the first publicly announced strategic twist (fully planned from the beginning, or not). We speculate that the lack of wins during the past two years is related to the business model changes, although as previously mentioned, we do not know what is the chicken and what is the egg, i.e. if the business transformation is the cause or the consequence behind the stagnant business. We want to add that we have a lot of respect for SEE and expect the cutthroat competition to remain. However, we are always sensitive to the slightest business model change, especially when it coincides with losing business. Lately, SEE has announced several steps forward and strengthened ties in its partnership with Qualcomm. We do not think there is any exclusivity in this partnership. Second, our view of the future is a vivid ecosystem with many different semiconductor players manufacturing processors on the ARM architecture, challenging Qualcomm.

PART 2
On the back of its new contracts and the capital raise of SEK 189m, Smart Eye is in an advantageous position and says it is a good time for it to “increase the pace while many others have pressed the pause button.” The term “many others” refers to the general caution in the industry, but we can imagine times are tough for contenders that have not yet won any contracts. With the new, won platform and two design wins for the Korean OEM, all 83 design wins are valued to SEK 2.1 bn with a SEK 3.8 bn in expected orders for all additional models on the platforms (see the table below). We believe this translates to, on average, SEK 300m annually for the 83 design wins, and SEK 843m per year for the total expected order values combined.
Smart Eye says the coming procurements due by 2023, at the latest, amount to over SEK 10 bn and 30% of all vehicles produced globally. We expect the vast majority to be decided during the first half of the time interval, due to EU and Euro NCAP. One should also note that the SEK 10 bn are not only new OEMs but additional platforms for existing OEMs as well. Another reflection is that we will enter a steady state where about 1/7 of all volumes are renewed each year, on average, which would mean SEK ~10 bn in play every 24 months (on today’s price levels). As described in our previous update, China is smoking hot for several major, global OEMs, like e.g. GM, Nissan and KIA/Hyundai. We believe the demand does not only stems from the users’ desires for semi-autonomous vehicles, but also the government embracing AI and autonomy for vehicles and devices overall, by e.g. allowing R&D grants.

PART 1
Redeye raises the DMS volume assumptions, consequently upping the base case. Our conviction regarding the case and the long-term trajectory remains rock solid. However, we expect a short-term drop from profit taking, following a surge of about 70% during the past two months. Business with 4 of the 5 largest constellations? In its Q2 report, Smart Eye stated that 11 out of the company’s 12 won OEMs are among world’s 20 largest OEMs. As we will outline below, we believe Smart Eye has won 4 of the top 5 constellations. These OEMs together produce 36m of all vehicles and have a combined market share of ~40%. We believe Smart Eye’s 83 design wins (incl the last two in Korea) will average sales of SEK 300m per year. We estimate all design wins and platforms combined to equal annual sales of well over SEK 850m. Volvo’s “For Everyone’s Safety” DMS campaign - fantastic reference for the supplier In a new market campaign, Volvo states that it will introduce DMS, in line with previous statements that DMS will be standard in every Volvo car. Volvo equates the importance of DMS to seatbelts (see further below). Our take is that Volvo would not have started the DMS campaign unless it had already chosen DMS suppliers. In our view, Volvo is the most important trendsetter in safety. Few OEMs have the same credibility for a DMS safety campaign as Volvo. We assume Volvo is the unknown new European Premium OEM that Smart Eye announced in March 2020. If we are right, it would be a fantastic reference for the quality of Smart Eye’s technology, since Volvo never compromises on safety. Upping the base case to SEK 241 (220) We increase our estimated DMS CAGR volume growth until 2028 to 81% (76%), meaning 23m units (22m), primarily related to the second Chinese OEM. Our base case is lifted to a street high of SEK 241 per share (220). We expect an EBIT of ~50% in 2023. In comparison, Mobileye topped at 39% and averaged 34%, although it had hardware gross margins of just ~75%. We believe there are a lot more news to come. Smart Eye says the coming procurements due by 2023, at the latest, amount to over SEK 10 bn and 30% of all vehicles produced globally. Aside of Volkswagen, we think the RFQ paperwork in Japan has had a steady pace, since Covid-19 infection rates have been relatively low in the region.

So, less upfront payment as it will be non-exclusive (the only way to go), but lots of juicy recurring revenue. Nice.

The queue has started to form. I can smell the list of company MOU's and licensing deals starting to gather pace waiting outside 80 Mildura Street.

Although the news was extremely good, unfortunately there are a few factors that go against being a kickstart to the SP: -
General markets going down quite sharply today.
No $$$$ value to the RNS.
No upgrade from the house broker.
The general markets don't understand the tech or the implications of this announcement (neither do the green blobs, but that's another story!)

A nice note from Stifel wouldn't go amiss.

However, wait until the money is announced from the two MOU's, it'll be a case of hold on to yer horses! Then of course the auto updates with more models and probably more OEMs etc.

Elton John's Rocket Man comes to mind :)

Wow, aviation moving, but come on Cenkos, add some value onto the target, they really are taking the proverbial p. Still 7.2p at 16% discount! I appreciate that it's upside, but this is now and surely it should be upgraded now.

Latest diatribe from Redeye today: -

Redeye saw nothing in the Q3'20 report that would sway our conviction regarding the Smart Eye case. On the contrary, market shares could be a bit higher than we expected.

Smart Eye states that 11 of its 12 end customers (OEMs) are among the 20 largest in the world. These are great news, suggesting that some of the OEMs could be larger than we initially thought. This was the single most interesting data point of the report.

Q2 sales amounted to SEK 15m, as expected. The operating loss was significantly lower though (SEK -13m compared to expected SEK -21m). Short-time furloughing only amounted to SEK 2m, meaning significant savings from less travel and fewer trade shows etc. However, this should now reverse with the SEK 189m directed share issue. As for the Corona effects on the market, Smart Eye stated that the situation improved a lot in September, which likely was a deciding factor behind the capital raise.

The Q3 report matched the increased expectations of the stock market. The stock is currently up 6%. We believe there is a strong news pipeline that could push the stock further.

Interesting take on the public's perception of DMS. Nothing that a bit of education won't solve. It'll be seen in the same light as a seat belt one day.

https://www.autolist.com/news-and-analysis/survey-driver-monitoring-systems

Sounds great, but where the DMS? Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see it in the description.
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/a-look-at-lucids-dreamdrive-revolutionary-or-ordinary-150226.html

Don't you just love a bit of handbags.

Some very sensitive souls here. Chill, enjoy the ride.

It is so cathartic Terry. Welcome to the green blob filter club.

Oldfool.

Don't forget to that SEE can now provide DMS across all budget ranges, not just top end. You are quite right though, there is no reason whatsoever for an OEM to choose a Tier 1 who may then use two Tier 2's for DMS, but these would probably be for separate models as trying to design in different DMS into different ranges of the same model could get pretty complicated. My opinion only.

Range of my feelings: -

FOMO? - You bet!
Fed up with poor contract communication? - You bet!
Can I see the reason behind the poor communication? - You bet!
Am I still excited with SEE and their tech? - you bet!
Fed up with SEYE releasing upbeat RNS's? - You bet!
Looking forward to a SEE contract win RNS? - You bet!
Love reading Viktor? - You bet - always good bedtime story!
Am I looking to trade this share - You bet! - But only when it has hit it's real value - whatever that may be (and that's the problem!) - plenty of years to go in my opinion.
Do I need to see a new therapist? - You bet! Not that I've seen one before, but always a first time, even at my age!

Good luck all, even the green blobs (and they are the one's that really need the luck, the rest of us here just know.)

Viktor being busy. New note appeared as below.

Redeye thinks today’s Korean contract for Smart Eye is a nice appetizer. We reiterate our valuation.

The two won car models are together valued to SEK 100m over their lifecycles, whereas the total platform value is expected to be SEK 500m. This is a nice appietizer, in our view, as we await more, larger contracts. The design wins are for an existing Korean OEM, but on a new platform.

The start of production is scheduled for 2021, which we believe is really fast. We assume this new car platform is based on the same technology platform as the first car platform with this specific OEM. While additional design wins on existing platforms are relatively low hanging fruit, winning new platforms is not a given for Smart Eye, considering dual sourcing, competition etc. Today’s contract therefore indicates that the OEM is pleased with Smart Eye’s work thus far.

The press release mentions ground-breaking new technology, which is related to applications, i.e. the contract contains more software than the previous design wins for this OEM. Mass volume manufacturers usually have fewer software engineers in relation to premium OEMs, meaning they have a larger need for software, in our view. Consequently, we think the ASP could be higher for major OEMs, which might also explain the high value of SEK 100m for only two car models.

The stock closed at a solid +6%. We assume the price surge might have been higher if the OEM name would have been known by the stock market.

Last, earlier today, Smart Eye presented at Redeye’s Autotech Seminar, together with seven other companies. You can find the presentations here.

I'm seeing SEYE up +6.27% too. But then they would, they're RNSing contract wins, something SEE don't seem to be very good at, at the moment.

Haven't had time to look into the links yet but if the quote from the article in Terry's post is as it reads "To help address intoxication and distraction in traffic", then that almost implies a slow speed DMS solution e.g. SEYE?

Surely they should be looking at a DMS solution that does all speeds?

I wonder how much of a difference this could make to the Caterpillar DMS sales?

https://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN26X1ET