Member Info for shal1000

@jefff, sorry another busy day at work, so not glued to the screen watching hbr going up and down. I work as an actuary which basically means analysing assets and liabilities, financial risk management and recommending solutions in an insurance companies. For example understanding why markets are moving etc yields, etc, suggesting appropriate level of hedging for interest rate, currency, equity, inflation risks etc. Transactions and investments are carried out by an investment department (usually qualified Charted Financial Analyst etc). So I apologise I dont have first hand knowledge of protected portfolios as insurance companies are not investment brokers, this maybe a question for Soder who is a market maker I believe.

But google definition is here which makes sense:
A protected transaction occurs when a large order is going through the market. The buyer (or seller) may wish to keep the order anonymous from the rest of the market as the size of the order could greatly alter the price of the stock. ... However, the market as a whole isn't told until the end, thus the order is protected.

Any thing further I suggest you ask Soder.

I apologise for not being able to answer your question otherwise.

Hi BP

I agree.in theory Buy backs sound great, but BP/Shell buy back program have been a failure, so im not that bothered about BB but would have it invested into buying more assets.

SK - I am moody as I am in a good mood. I'm in decent profit as my average is 360p.

Jeff - yes i read text book more than 10 years ago for my actuarial exams. I've been a qualified risk actuary for a long time and know exactly what I'm talking about as its my livelihood. Like I said you need to prove the correlation between HBR and 10 yr yields, and I have said for overall market the relationship between 10 year yields does work, but not for individual shares as the risk profile lies on a different point on the curve.

Just to point out the difference between value and growth share is also easily explained by definition of a growth share. Growth share place higher value on net cashflows at longer durations as they expect cashflows to grow much faster vs value shares where shorter duration is more key. Say risk free rate changes from 1% to 2%, a growth share would see a drop of 10% assuming weight cashflow duration is 10 years, whereas a value share would drop by 3% for duration of 3 years.

Obviously the above calc doesn’t allow for worsening hedging policy, share overhang, inflation in operational costs, gas prices, ESG lowering demand, etc,. So in a sense the share price could be classed as being just below reasonable if we ignore gas prices. I’m looking at an exit between 550 – 600p as a realistic target.
Oil, secondly why do you compare performance of Dow Jones against HBR share price, what has DJ got anything that relates to HBR, an index made up of 30 stocks that are skewed to outperform the market and has no meaning.
Then there are a few of you who are saying lockdowns will affect HBR. I beg to differ. You need to look at the micro economic conditions of a company and not macro economic that will effect oil prices and oil giants. HBR produce mostly in North Sea to supply oil and gas to the UK, many reports on the news have said its unlikely UK will go into lockdown like rest of Europe, so the demand for HBR products will remain intact.
Sorry for the long post, but was to busy at work over the last few weeks so finally got around to saying all the things I want to say. Hopefully those with common sense would agree with me.

Soder some great posts and nice to see someone who understands CAPM. Thanks, most of the stuff you said, I've been thinking for a long time and never said.

I do want to add the following points however:

When a share is valued the discount rate is made up of a risk-free rate and a risk premium. The risk premium is usually small for growth stocks (say 2% for something like apple) and very high for value stocks (I think brokers use a discount rate of 10% for HBR). So when the risk free rate changes the impacts are more profound on growth stocks eg going from 2% to 3% vs value's 10% to 11%. Jeff talks about the 10 year yield and tries to show that this would affect the HBR share price, this works for markets in general but not for every share. I suggest Jefff works out the correlation factor between changes in risk/10 year yield vs HBR share price. Also each company has a different risk profile and duration and should compare changes in yield curve for that duration not 10 years. I look at yield curves everyday for my work and shorter durations are increasing faster whereas for longer durations they are actually dropping. You also need to look at the change in principle components of a yield curve change (PC1, PC2, PC3) to make proper analysis. So jefff just because you read in some textbook/or somebody told you to follow a 10 year yield curve you have to use the information pragmatically, otherwise those who actually knows how markets work find your comments very niave.

Harrycash - you ask for volumes, NoFear was providing them everyday and you diss him. Also I am yet to read a post of yours that actually adds anything new, all you do is summarise world events that we are all aware off. Quite frankly they are long, boring and pointless.

SK - I have never seen a sensible post from you, oil said that you provide objective analysis and have years off experience and yet I havent seen any evidence. Then you ask why did the oil price rise yesterday. You just need to read outside the board to get your answer easily - here is a link:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-falls-expected-deal-tap-emergency-crude-reserves-2021-11-23/
This link should answer your question.

Oil, your kept moaning about the share price being 80% lower. Here is some objective analysis:
Last time oil was around $80 was in Oct 2018. PMO share price was 140p. They were producing 80kbd and net debt of $2.3 (£1.8b). Total value of company 1 billion shares * 1.40 + 1.8 = 3.2b.
Now we producing 180kbd (with tolmount coming on board not included), so we expect value of HBR to be 3.2 * 180 / 80 = 7.2b. Net debt is $2.7b or £2b, therefore 7.2 – 2.0 = 5.2b. Number of shares is 925m, therefore on a like for like basis the share price should be £5.62. Add in tolmount say 10% we get around 620p. The current share price is 33% lower than its potential not 80%. Funnily enough all the brokers have an average target price to be 650p, so justifies their expectations.

The poll on reddit has now closed with 19 votes. To summarise:

2 10.5% less than 350
0 0.0% 350 - 375
1 5.3% 375 - 400
6 31.6% 400 - 425
2 10.5% 425 - 450
8 42.1% 450 +

Thanks to all who voted! Good luck for CMD!

Hi All

Only 7 hours to go before poll closes on reddit. Get your votes in, especially as big price movements this could change your opinion from a week ago!

14 votes in, with 6 people expecting higher than 450p and only 3 people expecting lower than todays' price of 400p.

Get your votes in and good luck for 9th Dec!

HC - Im pretty sure Bacs said he cant go skiing because of Covid lockdown, no that he has got Covid. Also it seems you dont get sarcasm either. As for 250p price target - dream on lol!

Thanks NF, I saw those planned outages on Reuters newsfeed on CMC as well.

OK fair point but you didnt make that clear in your original post. Although I have nothing against NF, but even I thought him saying he has inside information was very niave and immature to do. Even if he has he shouldn't be saying it. As for HBR, arent they famous for lack of RNS and being open, that is why people on this forum are so frustrated. I believe in what energyvoice, reuters etc publish, unless HBR comes out to say it is false, that is their responsibility to rebuke any information which isnt true. The fact they dont means they havent got a problem with the news.

Sorry how is an article from energyvoice misleading information/insider information/market abuse when its in the public domain? Sharing a link isn't a crime. What defines an RNS is up to hbr.

9 votes in, 6 days to go before poll closes. more than half of the votes expect share price to be above 450p. Get your votes in.

As we approach CMD cast your votes what you expect the share price to be on CMD! See poll at reditt!

@soder. again a brilliant post that I await that helps to understand the situation better. Makes alot of sense of price activity over the last few weeks and today. Hope others learn what a objective analysis is about when posting!

LMAO Sarcasm at its best, guess @oil agrees. Typical of him not posting when it does better.

What source you using - bp up 0.75%, enq up 1.2% and hbr up 1.4% at 365p. And those are official as at 8:28 am. Please stop with misleading posts.

Rookie, bp ignore someone so rude who shows no respect. Filter him out. I'm break even at 360, cos like loads others we averaged down when it was stuck around 320s in August. So it's very believable you being in profit. Good luck for the future. Also oil didn't you spell rich incorrectly as reach? If you do show respect please don't reply back anything abusive, please have some self respect and this is me asking you politely.

I agree bp

Oil, SK are you guys definitely out. So does that mean you guys will stop posting crap all day long?

That's one post I agree with you that dbno is a ....