Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
I just bought another 5k at 411. Apart from tolmount (which is still around the corner not a big deal), nothing shouts as saying hbr are doing bad. Still undervalued with all the financial metrics provided today.
It's flying a sudden 10% gain woohoo
It suddenly started to pick up. One thing i noticed that this board moves faster than the share price lol. Given the amount of posting activity im surprised so few holders out there lol
Just so peoples expectations are intact, a CMD is just going to highlight the strategies eg what they doing with the whole 500m bond replacement etc, financial targets for year end and the next 5 to 10 years. Its also a good opportunity to ask those questions that everyone says here but doesn't ask the board. So use this opportunity. So pearls if you want a dividend / buy back, you can ask on Thursday, don't hold back and complain afterwards. To everyone on this board use this opportunity and have a go at the board if you aren't happy.
I'm in profit. Only joined Friday with £6.5k. To be honest, I do alot of research before I invest, first time im having a pure punt and hence small holdings, nice if this doubles to 54p for a quick return.
Fact check. Oil lowered by another 1% to 2% after the close on ftse on Friday, so the rise in oil isn't much compared to hbr closing point on Friday. Secondly, gas has tumbled by 7% holding hbr lower as we are 50/50 in gas and oil where as bp/shell are more in oil. These figures are easily verifiable to provide objective analysis.
Indonesia offers 8 new oil and gas blocks for bids
JAKARTA, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Indonesia is putting eight new oil and gas blocks located across the archipelago up for bids, Tutuka Ariadji, the director general of oil and gas at the country's energy ministry, said on Monday.
The oil and gas blocks had a total capacity of at least 500 million barrels of oil and 22 trillion cubic feet of gas, data presented at an energy conference by Ariadji showed.
"We invite potential investors who are interested, who have technical capabilities and have good financial ability to participate in this bidding round," Ariadji said.
The blocks offered are: the West Palmera and Bertak Pijar Puyuh blocks on Sumatra island, the Paus offshore field in Natuna, the North Ketapang and Agung I blocks in North Java, the Karaeng and Agung II blocks in South Sulawesi, and the Maratua block in East Kalimantan.
The Bertak Pijar Puyuh, North Ketapang, Agung I and Agung II blocks will be offered via a "direct proposal tender", while the rest will be offered in a regular tender, Ariadji said.
All but the Bertak Pijar Puyuh block are unexplored.
Direct proposals will utilise the "production sharing contract", under which contractors shoulder the cost of exploration and production in exchange for retaining a bigger portion of the oil and gas they recover.
Regular open tenders will allow flexibility for contractors to choose between a production sharing contract or a gross split scheme, under which the government reimburses the exploration and production costs shouldered by the contractors in exchange for a higher share of companies’ oil and gas earnings.
This is the second round of oil and gas bids Indonesia has issued since the pandemic started.
Indonesia awarded oil and gas blocks to local upstream energy company Energi Mega Persada and Canada's Husky Energy Inc in September, in the country's first such tender in nearly two years.
(Reporting by Fathin Ungku and Bernadette Christina Munthe Editing by Ed Davies)
Jefff I havent given any thoughts - sorry.
Regarding your other post, thanks for the link. For those who dont like the sun (come on who doesnt), then maybe the traditional bbc will change your mind:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127
If this does become a reality, then lets hope the government and society handles the situation far better this time.
@jefff, sorry another busy day at work, so not glued to the screen watching hbr going up and down. I work as an actuary which basically means analysing assets and liabilities, financial risk management and recommending solutions in an insurance companies. For example understanding why markets are moving etc yields, etc, suggesting appropriate level of hedging for interest rate, currency, equity, inflation risks etc. Transactions and investments are carried out by an investment department (usually qualified Charted Financial Analyst etc). So I apologise I dont have first hand knowledge of protected portfolios as insurance companies are not investment brokers, this maybe a question for Soder who is a market maker I believe.
But google definition is here which makes sense:
A protected transaction occurs when a large order is going through the market. The buyer (or seller) may wish to keep the order anonymous from the rest of the market as the size of the order could greatly alter the price of the stock. ... However, the market as a whole isn't told until the end, thus the order is protected.
Any thing further I suggest you ask Soder.
I apologise for not being able to answer your question otherwise.
SK - I am moody as I am in a good mood. I'm in decent profit as my average is 360p.
Jeff - yes i read text book more than 10 years ago for my actuarial exams. I've been a qualified risk actuary for a long time and know exactly what I'm talking about as its my livelihood. Like I said you need to prove the correlation between HBR and 10 yr yields, and I have said for overall market the relationship between 10 year yields does work, but not for individual shares as the risk profile lies on a different point on the curve.
Just to point out the difference between value and growth share is also easily explained by definition of a growth share. Growth share place higher value on net cashflows at longer durations as they expect cashflows to grow much faster vs value shares where shorter duration is more key. Say risk free rate changes from 1% to 2%, a growth share would see a drop of 10% assuming weight cashflow duration is 10 years, whereas a value share would drop by 3% for duration of 3 years.
Obviously the above calc doesn’t allow for worsening hedging policy, share overhang, inflation in operational costs, gas prices, ESG lowering demand, etc,. So in a sense the share price could be classed as being just below reasonable if we ignore gas prices. I’m looking at an exit between 550 – 600p as a realistic target.
Oil, secondly why do you compare performance of Dow Jones against HBR share price, what has DJ got anything that relates to HBR, an index made up of 30 stocks that are skewed to outperform the market and has no meaning.
Then there are a few of you who are saying lockdowns will affect HBR. I beg to differ. You need to look at the micro economic conditions of a company and not macro economic that will effect oil prices and oil giants. HBR produce mostly in North Sea to supply oil and gas to the UK, many reports on the news have said its unlikely UK will go into lockdown like rest of Europe, so the demand for HBR products will remain intact.
Sorry for the long post, but was to busy at work over the last few weeks so finally got around to saying all the things I want to say. Hopefully those with common sense would agree with me.
Soder some great posts and nice to see someone who understands CAPM. Thanks, most of the stuff you said, I've been thinking for a long time and never said.
I do want to add the following points however:
When a share is valued the discount rate is made up of a risk-free rate and a risk premium. The risk premium is usually small for growth stocks (say 2% for something like apple) and very high for value stocks (I think brokers use a discount rate of 10% for HBR). So when the risk free rate changes the impacts are more profound on growth stocks eg going from 2% to 3% vs value's 10% to 11%. Jeff talks about the 10 year yield and tries to show that this would affect the HBR share price, this works for markets in general but not for every share. I suggest Jefff works out the correlation factor between changes in risk/10 year yield vs HBR share price. Also each company has a different risk profile and duration and should compare changes in yield curve for that duration not 10 years. I look at yield curves everyday for my work and shorter durations are increasing faster whereas for longer durations they are actually dropping. You also need to look at the change in principle components of a yield curve change (PC1, PC2, PC3) to make proper analysis. So jefff just because you read in some textbook/or somebody told you to follow a 10 year yield curve you have to use the information pragmatically, otherwise those who actually knows how markets work find your comments very niave.
Harrycash - you ask for volumes, NoFear was providing them everyday and you diss him. Also I am yet to read a post of yours that actually adds anything new, all you do is summarise world events that we are all aware off. Quite frankly they are long, boring and pointless.
SK - I have never seen a sensible post from you, oil said that you provide objective analysis and have years off experience and yet I havent seen any evidence. Then you ask why did the oil price rise yesterday. You just need to read outside the board to get your answer easily - here is a link:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-falls-expected-deal-tap-emergency-crude-reserves-2021-11-23/
This link should answer your question.
Oil, your kept moaning about the share price being 80% lower. Here is some objective analysis:
Last time oil was around $80 was in Oct 2018. PMO share price was 140p. They were producing 80kbd and net debt of $2.3 (£1.8b). Total value of company 1 billion shares * 1.40 + 1.8 = 3.2b.
Now we producing 180kbd (with tolmount coming on board not included), so we expect value of HBR to be 3.2 * 180 / 80 = 7.2b. Net debt is $2.7b or £2b, therefore 7.2 – 2.0 = 5.2b. Number of shares is 925m, therefore on a like for like basis the share price should be £5.62. Add in tolmount say 10% we get around 620p. The current share price is 33% lower than its potential not 80%. Funnily enough all the brokers have an average target price to be 650p, so justifies their expectations.