RE: Beaufort note7 Nov 2018 10:37
Hi Dubliner,
It seems we're thinking along similar lines. I agree that despite Beaufort's ignominious demise, their research note is still a useful yardstick to extrapolate from.
I also agree that transport costs are perhaps the greatest risk, given that rail doesn't seem to be an option so it has to be trucking. But there are mitigations. In the long run electric trucks should bring the costs down, and this seems to be progressing well, see e.g. :
https://www.fleetowner.com/equipment/progress-electric-trucks-happening-faster-expected-daimler-says
And of course the CS site has a power line nearby (maybe even too near - I wonder if we'll have to pay to reroute it slightly?). So when PC sorts out our electrics, he'll hopefully have the foresight to include a suitable EV charging point!
In the shorter term, at least the oil price has at least retreated a bit from its recent $85 high. My own way of mitigating this risk is to hedge my SRES investment by also having some oil shares in my portfolio.
Another risk - NGS not closing as expected next year - is already very low, and presumably no worse after today's US election results.
I am surprised that the SP hasn't moved up a bit, given how much things have moved on, but of course it's quite illiquid and easily moved by a few random buys/sells. I'd buy more at this price, but am constrained by the single stock limit imposed by Mrs SGD27 - something I can't really argue with after suffering a significant single stock loss a couple of years back (SULA).
All IMHO, DYOR, ATB, GSOH, etc.
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