Member Info for SGD27

ConCorD-19 is pegylated IFN 1b

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04552379

Link for the new Hardman report :

https://www.hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ARIX-Artios-attracts-MerckKGaA-7-Dec-2020.pdf

"Investment summary: Two major deals in quick succession have demonstrated that ARIX has invested in interesting technologies that are attracting keen interest from the pharmaceutical majors. Having set itself some ambitious targets for the next three years, these deals suggest that the targets should be met comfortably, so the market should be narrowing the discount to NAV."

Lots of interesting comments on the Artios-Merck collaboration, e.g. :

"With the upfront payment and eight potential targets, each with potential milestones of up to $860m, the deal has a headline value of up to $7bn. In the event that just one or two of these targets is successful, in our opinion, Merck will face a decision about paying all the associated milestones to Artios, or simply take a view that it will be cheaper in the long term to buy the whole company."

If Acacia are going to stick around, maybe they might ask for a seat on the Arix board? I'd have thought 20% ownership would entitle them to that (if they actually wanted it).

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SNG/azd9412-update-g9dopilfsvnfg8i.html

"The study however, did not meet AstraZeneca's predefined criteria for progression, and they have elected to return the rights to AZD9412 to Synairgen"

All part of this :

https://www.yourmoney.com/investing/woodford-investors-set-to-share-97m-in-fourth-round-of-payments/

Now the question is what will Acacia do?

https://www.vo%78markets.co.uk/articles/arix-bioscience-alba-mineral-resources-and-vadim-alexander-on-polarean-imaging-db30972

Not a chartist myself, but this may be of interest to some :

https://www.share-talk.com/share-talk-bulletin-board-heroes-tuesday-1st-december-2020

SRES discussed ~ 6:35 in.

"potential hot-looking situation" (!)

Correction, apologies - the website is OK. I'd recently deleted my browse history so had to type it in again and I typed the old website name without the 'plc'.

Link for core pictures :

https://www.sunriseresourcesplc.com/clayton-silver-project-nevada

Hi Twiggy. Well, my theory is that many recently arrived PI's will be far more interested in the PM side of the business than pozz/perl. Therefore the SP reaction to the assay results may be disproportionately great - and that could apply in either direction.

BTW, the company website has been inaccessible for a little while now. Is anyone reading anything into that? ;-)

Hi folks, yes, great news today. I'm trying to do the sums :

The figures we're given are $30m upfront + $860m 'per target' + 'double digit' royalties.

Taking Arix's 12.7% and converting to £ :

£2.8m upfront + £81.5m 'per target' + £?m royalties.

Arix's SP is up around 18p today, equating to mcap increase approx £24m.

So the market is valuing this at around a quarter of a 'target' - and I'll be first to admit I don't understand exactly what a 'target' represents. Is this reasonable?

I don't mind them having a go at the precious metal projects, and I obviously hope the imminent assay results will be very good. But failing that, I hope they will be very bad. Two reasons:
(1) Clarity that no more money will be spent on Clayton.
(2) The newly arrived precious metal investors will run for the hills. Given SRES's illiquidity, this will crash the SP, offering some great top-up opportunities for we connoisseurs of concrete and cat litter.

The rate of mutations may be low, but they may be quite effective at circumventing antibodies :

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201127/N439K-mutation-of-SARS-CoV-2-may-be-more-infectious-and-antibody-resistant-than-Wuhan-strain.aspx

"
Thus, as new antiviral strategies are being developed based on the Wuhan strain, given the possible mutations in SARS-CoV-2 that could become resistant to antibodies developed for this strain, "it is necessary to consider the impact of different mutations on the effectiveness of neutralizing antibodies," write the authors.
"

The large trades are getting larger!

This recent Lancet article suggests inhaled corticosteroids aren't particularly likely to be of useful in treating Covid:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30415-X/fulltext

Who's going to want to buy the 27m Link shares? What we're looking for is a company with lots of spare cash sloshing around, that is looking to invest in undervalued assets in the bio sector.

Does anyone know of a company fitting that description? I do, it's called Arix! The case for a share buyback seems overwhelming to me.

How would it work? Well let's say they made a generous offer at a 10% premium to today's SP. That would cost around £44m. Now there would be 20% less shares in circulation, so we'd each own a 25% bigger slice of the company than we did before. Of course the company would now have £44m less in the bank, but I can't see that dropping the market cap by as much as 20%. So everyone's a winner!

This would be more effective than a special dividend, and probably better for most investors from a tax perspective. Maybe I'm oversimplifying or missing something, but it just seems like a no-brainer to me.

Hi jxck, I agree, but did you mean 20% ( = 27m shares = £40m ) ?

Realistically it will have to be privately organised sales, as the liquidity here in the open market is obviously miniscule!

Some large trades starting to appear.

That's right, below 3% means no more TR1s from LL.

Unless of course he decides to come back in at this price...

@JoeyDiamond: Thanks, I was just about to post this, which agrees with the way Zach Hensel has worked it out :

Here's a guess at how the Oxford vaccine stats might have been worked out, given we know that the total infections was 131, and the half+full dose regime was a much smaller group than full+full.

The 4 columns are
No infected | No on drug | No on placebo | Efficiency = (1 - Ndrug/Nplacebo)

Full+Full:
98 27 71 62%
Half+Full:
33 3 30 90%
Total:
131 30 101 70.3%

Note that the 90% figure is based on TINY stats. With even a single change it could have been 93% or 87%.

Hi fulmar, re "contracts for Poos".

This is obviously a reference to the use of perlite for cat litter. We do know that cats can catch Covid, and if in future there's pressure to keep cats indoors, then the demand for cat litter could skyrocket!