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comes to an end with the usual sometimes strange posting profile:
The Chain almost broke the record for prolixity in his BlM NEPA post,(bless him),Adon 30 has seen something which he has interpreted as a sign of progress at 16-2 ,(bless him), and IG has noted another "biggie" in the shape of 1M shares not classified as buy or sell (bless her ,too).
Meanwhile the reality is that the SP took fright,yet again,(as I expected it would), and failed to break 6p. All on meagre trading.
Then I turned to BOIL and found that the SP there had increased 82% (just today), and that well over 3B shares were traded. And I asked myself the question I have been seeking the answer to for the past year : what is going on withZPHR? A company that has promised so much and has hardly produced a barrel of oil from its self drilled wells. And the latest pattern is delay after delay. When will it change, and when will the SP rise above its level of even a year ago?
Just two points :
1. Institutional investors will buy in when it suits them. Especially since they will have been given effective inside information by the company and/or its brokers ,(read Auctus). But that hasn't happened. And activity among US investors is almost non existent!
2. Long term and substantial holders are fed up with delays in maintaining schedules and the lack of SP progress.(Read papaduke today).Most who bought in the past year are trading at a loss.
2.
Good to have a couple of those in the form of SCE2AUX and MTucker posting here. The constant yea saying of numerous posters,(usually 4 or 5 posts a day), has become a tad fatuous over the past several months of no upward SP progress.
This is a 1.6 billion share company with daily trades of circa 5M Shares a day who brought Auctus on board almost three months ago to alter the institutionai shareholder profile. Net effect : no new institutional shareholders!
Delay is the name of the game together, with a failure to cross the 6p share price and stat there. But the resident rampers here still talk about a 20p share price , and,( bizzarely), a buyout.
A bit of that creeping in ,I think. No significant oil produce from self drilled wells. Just one Institutional investor,(in the UK), and none in the US where there are comparatively few private investors. Lot of hints at progress in the near future but the months roll by and the SP just manages to sustain itself where it was over a year ago. Hardly heart raising stuff for the shareholders!
So far today only about 6M shares have been traded and the SP has fallen 4%. Most of the trades were just "housekeeping " trades and the relatively few apart indicate doubts sown in some minds by the inability of the sp to sail past 6p and the late inability of the BOD to produce unequivocal good news when it's been due.
The MMs have been told, (by the broker on the company's behalf), to drop the price to 10% below the placement price in preparation for a coming uplift. And it has taken the MMs a week or so to achieve that objective in view of the poor trading rhythm.
Thank you, The Chain, for a very thoughful and informative post, and I'm pleased you decided against yoour proposed contact with CH.
I wanted to add a few details that you may have already interpreted. This week we are entering week 11 of the possible 12 week timescale set by the company for the completion of the cryptomine. If that materialises then production from State 16-2 ought to begin in earnest wihin two weeks. That would cause the SP to rise dramatically,(I think).
If it were to be allied to news of the commencement of drilling at one or more of the three wells posited to be undertaken before this year end the effect could be very great indeed.
Lastly,I have lately concluded that the company will probably purchase shares in more nonop wells soon.
Thanks again for your well argued opinions. Go well.
Thanks, The Chain, and there are just a few points I'd like to raise in response :
1. Where is the "nearby" pipeline, and,if it's active why hasn't it been used to aid production from State 16-2 which is vital at this juncture? I think the reference in the 8 December is to the planned extension to the Dominion pipeline, which , by the way is completely out of Zephyr's hands.
2. Actually two institutions have "weighed in" but one withdrew, (an event never alluded to by the company). Also the company has declared State 16-2 the proof of concept, so institutions are not waitinng for them to repeat that prior to buying in. They're just not interested as of now. Also who bought the £12M of shares in the last placement. At the time the company thanked the "institutional shareholder for their suupport", but never revealed who they were. Also on this point it would certainly enliven the SP if the BOD bought some shares. They haven't done so for well over a year, and they haven't alway been in a closed periood !
3. Zephyr is a nonop oiler with no worthwhile production from the only well they have drilled to date. The newflow from the company about the timing of the upcoming wells is erratic at best. The SP in languishing in a way which would have been considered extraordinary a year ago. That's how I see it.
Thanks for your response Adon 30 but Idon't think I misread the 8 December RNS when it was issued ,or indeed more recently.. The RNS was mainly focused on what was seen as the success of State 16-2. The fact that there was the possibility of adding the gas was presented as a bonus, and no mention was made of using the sale and the disposal of that gas to facilitate ol production from the well.
In fact the RNS indicated that the gas would be sold via an,(unnamed), "nearby existing infrastructure." The pipeline alluded to was not active in the area at that time and the necessary extension work still hasn't begun. And please remember that the RNS was posted ten months ago and we still haven't had,(nor are we sure when we will have ), any significant production from a well which was drilled over a year ago.
Zephyr remains a nonop oiler and for all the speculation we don't know when that will change.And the lack of interest fron institutional investors and substantial private investors and the depressed SP betrays unease about all that.
A lot of good sense in what Srdoddy says. a RNS on 8 December 2021 indicated that State 16-2 had the potential to produce 2100boepd.. It made no mention of the necessity for a pipelline to obviate the need for flaring before any significant production could begin.
On the 26 January of this year another RNS indicated the raising of the circa £36M for the Williston nonop purchase.Was that a change of strategy given that the company had spent most of November/December on a fund raising which clearly was unsuccessful,(the first misstep by what looked like a brilliant BOD).
If a gas pipeline was known to be a necessity before State 16-2 couuld be put into production why didn't the company say so at the time of the 8 December 2021 RNSI? I tend to agree with Srdoddy that the lack of more than one II (in the UK and none in the US), is directly related to the ongoing nonop status of the company. There is a lack of clarity related to the company which has been,(and still is), very disappointing.
From Evan3020 ( last qtr production down), to Chain asserting that flaring is not being carried out on 16-2 solely o fulfil the company's environmental stance. The latter is only partly true. Fact is that only very limited flaring is permitted be carried out and for the gain it is probably not considered worthwhile.
My own view is one of disappointment that the company didn't level with shareholders long ago about the effective inability to produce from 16-2 thus turning the company into a nonop oiler and using shareh0lder funds to do so, Them's the facts!
Zephyr is a non operating oiler from bought in shares in wells paid for,(one way or another), by the shareholders. It has produced little or nothing from the well it drilled by itself,(State 16-2).Until it does produce from at least one self operated well the sp will remain in the doldrums.